Member Info for SeagullsFan

@Sinequanon

In regards the eye movements in the interview, that observation was from @InTheVoid. I’ve not watched it again, but I think it’s got to be worth another look. Maybe I have been too trusting in DM in the past haha

@Sho2SHB

I think quite a few have taken time to reflect. I am now differentiating between the project (i.e HE in the Rukwa basin) and the management of HE1. I still have high confidence that the HE is there and will be commercially viable.
That however, is different to having confidence in the integrity of the HE1 board. I’m not saying I think they are shysters, nor even that they didn’t believe that Tai-1 was going to give them the discovery. It’s the events of Tai-2, the SP spike and then the subsequent selling before the RNS which has soured my perception.

So, if some posters want to view that as negative, that’s their choice. However, there’s a difference between sensible caution and just being a ‘happy-clappy’ follower.

Let’s hope over the next week of so we get some clear plan from HE1 as to the next steps. Not the current vague clap-trap of water-drills etc. A clear, defined action plan.

Hi Trek.

I don’t plan to derisk here. My average is 86p and, with the connections hopefully being sorted soon, that will underpin the current SP easily IMO. The drilling only adds to the upside potential - and that looks huge.

I plan free up other funds over the next week or so to add here so I could do with the SP staying at ‘bargain basement’ for just another week please :).

Not been a good couple of months for small-caps, so let’s hope Autumn will be better. Only on-going concern is the potential for a negative market reaction to stronger inflation figures coming through. I’m not sure I believe the central banks and their use of the word “temporary”,

I will be very happy if your TP comes to fruition in a few years.

@Tiger16

I think I have more chance of Kylie calling me out of the blue and demanding a night of unbridled passion than HE1 getting to 18p next week.

We may be lucky when we get out of the summer lull and there’s more activity, but, IMO, until there is some positive news to drive the SP, we’re not going to see much traction.

I think you need to set your expectations to either hold for 6-8 months until the next drill campaign starts, or crystalise some/all of your losses now now invest elsewhere before returning next year (assuming you still buy into the project).

I’m going to wait and see what the next few weeks bring - if the SP gets to 12p+ then that’s a 1/3 rise from current level.

@Sinequanon @dai

Agree with your sentiments. We all gave DM a huge amount of kudos for his interaction with shareholders during he drill campaign and the perception that he was keeping us informed/reassured.
I accept that maybe they were overtaken by events on the washout and they might have thought they had a discovery ready to announce, subject to the wireline. I get that shlt happens.

However, what causes me discomfort is the same as @dai alluded to. The communications surrounding Tai-2 appeared to be very different from reality and could easily be interpreted as a way to boost the SP, with the intention to allow those in the know to bail and leave the small investor shafted. Cynical? - moi? hahaha

It does appear that the quality of their communications/RNS output varies based on what they are trying to achieve.

I'm going to hold for the time being and see what happens over the next month. I'll either be trading on the price swings or reducing holding if the price increases and crystalise some of my loss and invest elsewhere.

I still believe in the project and will retain a substantial holding going into next year - my faith in the leadership of HE1 is slightly tarnished.

@Sho2SHB

Thanks for that. He seemed a little calmer in this interview so it was clearer.

Hope you can have the patience for this until next year - I know this was a big thing for you and your family.

My impression is that all they are planning is the seismic survey before November as there was no mention of the water-drilling concept.

I'm OK with that - this is now a medium-term play for success and hopefully, the plans they develop before drilling again in Apr/May next year (my guess at a timeline) will be better focussed, based on the seismic data and the data gleaned during the Phase 1 drilling.

Slightly irritating the glossing over of the SP as not being a concern of the board. With respect, a lot of people will have lost money by buying in over the current SP. They can't control the SP, but their actions/communications were partly responsible IMO. Yes, we all need to accept it's our own responsibility, but tweets with a tag of #discovery should not have been done.

This was done by DeepBlueDiver on the HE1 board, so I can't even claim credit for the idea lol. He gave me the heads-up on ADV on the HE1 board.

But yes, having a sticky would be great. There's been some really good information/advice posted on this board which has only helped to re-enforce my belief in this project, and it's a shame when it drifts and gets lost.

Also be great to have an edit. The amount of posts which I do with silly typos or, after re-reading I want to change to be clearer. *Sigh*

These are the links from saint-tropez and Oiler87 as a reference for new investors (I can't take credit). I'll look to bounce every so often to keep on the first page.

Please add anything I've missed. Hopefully save lots of questions/new threads asking the same stuff over again.

https://www.advanceplc.com/media/1092/risc-cpr-buffalo-23mar2021b.pdf

https://www.advanceplc.com/investor-relations/research-notes/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39bjWG0ta5U

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/948188/advance-energy-lonadv-presenting-at-the-proactive-one2one-virtual-forum-948188.html

No Friday (I assumed that would be obvious) ;)

Shorn.

My reading of the RNS is that the survey is 20 days and then about 4 weeks to process the results of the survey. To me it appears that the final results will not be known until 20 days + approx 4 weeks.

I have no idea of they can drip feed the survey information for processing whilst it is on-going, or if it is more prudent to wait until the survey is complete and then process everything together, but to get complete result it’s likely to be the 4 weeks after the survey completes.

This would take us to 1st week of October probably.

I topped up too - added 15k @ 81.22, but not showing on the trades list!

@ITV

Hope you’re holding up well. Been a challenging couple of weeks eh!

I knew you had autism, but wasn’t aware of everything else about you. Sounds like you’ve had an interesting working life. Been avoiding the board since the RNS came out as it got toxic.

Let’s hope we get some clear news soon of the next steps for HE1 - spike you, I still have confidence in this project.

Daily/weekly fluctuations don’t bother me too much - I’ve got used to large swings in my portfolio value and accept that as part of the territory.

I’m more concerned about the news flow staying positive. The main things for me right now are the rig contract confirmation (again, the fact it’s ‘delayed’ by 1-2 weeks is not really material to me) and, (the big one) additional agreements. Even if this required a raise, it would be very positive for the SP and would also add credence to their strategy.

Tom.

I feel as though they have been slightly misleading in the RNS/interview.

My opinion is that we will only get the seismic survey done before the Nov/Dec rains. I feel they have tried to imply that there could be a water-drill used to drill the shallower targets, but my impression was that this was a suggestion/possibility and was not linked to the timescale of the seismic survey.

Personally, I don't feel there will be any drilling now until the end of the rains in Apr next year.

Just my take on this - others may view it differently.

Just an observation when reviewing the videos/RNS. If they use words like "could ?or may" ?you should change that to "could or could not"," may oy may not". It's not committing to something but an aspiration (I like to refer to them as weasel words). If they say things like will than that is definitive.

SGF

@Phoebus @Bladey @saint-tropez

Guys, appreciate the kind words. I'm down a substantial amount (6 figures) but it's along term play as they have the exclusive license for 3500 sq km and the HE is there (IMO). Luckily I'm an optimist by nature so I'm relatively chilled by it all.
It's a paper loss and when we invest in these companies, we have to be prepared for the long-haul.

The detailed information you've provided about ADV is also good and confirms what I'd done during my research.

Good luck guys - you'll be seeing a lot of me, dai and DeepBlueDiver over the autumn I expect :)

@dai

Yes, I thought we may have got news next week.
I am annoyed as there appears to have been people dealing with insider knowledge selling Mon-Wed. Hit 17p on Fri then dropped to 12.4p last night - steady decline all week.
I hope this makes up your losses on HE1 - I need this to get to 7.5p approx and I'll be even on HE1 & ADV lol. Here's to a good Autumn for all ADV.

Good posts today all.

I've taken a kicking (on paper anyway) and am OK with that. I was not expecting a success from HE1 straight away but still feel that next year it will all come good. Will hold most of my shares unless it spikes to about 10p and I can offload a smallish percentage.

@dai

Yes, it would be very good to get some news on one of the other agreements being negotiated before the drill campaign ends as that could give the SP an extra lift. Current avg here is 2.6p, so be good to get to 7-8p before the drill completes so I can de-risk a bit. Hope you're OK with the news today. The HE1 board is shlte today - full of bottom feeders (there really are some strange people who get kicks from trying to gloat when people are feeling raw).

Thanks Bladey

I need some good news after my hit on HE1 :). Exploration - got to expect set-backs.

I'll sell some of my HE1 soon and add here and look to make up the losses when this goes up (hopefully lol).

If there are snorters trying to drive the price down and then buy stock on the cheap, I haven’t seen or heard of any rumours which would be the trigger for the price drop.

It seems like it’s someone posting something which they think os feasible, but lacks any substance.

Topped up.500k (now 6.5m). Feel totally relaxed about this.

Autumn will be a good time for us early ADV investors.