Member Info for SeagullsFan

My view (for what it's worth) is this:
First, we had crap luck with the original drill (drill loss/side-track/hole stability). Cr@p happens.
So, the SP tanks (no surprise there), but IMO, it was oversold. Some panicked which I get and other took the opportunity to buy cheap shares.
We then get the RNS and get a big bounce over 2 days, before we then get 2 more days of price drops which could be down to large holders offloading. There doesn't appear to be any real reason for the drop apart from someone wanting to take profits.

So, here we are, and the price has finished off the days lows and I think this will be the basis for a push on for the rest of the week now. Be good to get a tweet from HE1 indicating what's happening, but maybe they won't do that this drill.

Also, thank f**k that kn0b was kicked off. Jeez, what a complete saddo eh!.

GLA - here's to a better few days as we (hopefully) climb into the higher teens again.

Now what would be good would be news of the rig contract AND another agreement on the same day.

OK, OK, I know I'm being greedy. I need something to cheer me up with my HE1 shares at the moment (still have high hopes there though).

Roll on September and the end to the AIM drift (hopefully)...

@digitalman

I think you’re trying to read too much into it. It was an interview and not a carefully worded statement and sometime we may not describe things exactly 100% perfect.

It’s there principle that they have proven a trap/deal and a working HE system.

Now, IMO, it’s just a mater of time until they get a discovery (but of course, Tai-2 could still fail)

I don’t get that view.

If that were the case, then they would have sold out on the first drill. The only reason it failed was due to hole stability, Everything else seems to confirm their confidence that they had a discovery.

If they had those concerns, they would look like complete amateurs to drill only 20m from the original location.
Just my opinion - but I think some are looking for problems which don’t exist.

Good to hear DBD
My plans have not changed - will look to serial some of my holding when this gets up to high teens.
It feels like, I of there was a large seller that they are done. Hopefully we’ll get a tick up over next couple of days now.
Hope stress levels are OK haha

Yes, a lot of noise that’s for sure.
We can speculate, but none of us really know. They are still drilling (I assume) so there won’t be any real news from that. Maybe news is expected sooner rather than later, and there’s activity to fill large orders (again, pure speculation as I have no idea).

The SP is 14p (ish).
The RISKED value is 25p (or 21p excluding Tai) that’s based on a 20% CoS.
And people are selling?

Based on the information from the original drill, the CoS is higher (either that, or they have lied in the RNS).

Of course, there is no guarantee that any individual drill will be successful, but I am amazed at these low prices. It feels that once this starts moving again (which it will), there won’t be any major sellers left to hold it back. We’ll also soon be getting into the time-frame when potential news could be coming.

GLA.

ST

Nice use of a bit of The Clash on the HE1. 10/10 mate haha

@DBD - Check your missed calls ;)

Very odd DBD.

Hopefully a short sell-off and we'll bounce back over rest of the week. I should have held fire before buying earlier lol

Bought another 200k @15.4p just now. Couldn't believe the drop here.

Look to make 30-40% and then off -load (think I'm on the dark side wyn) haha

@wyn

Morning :)

I get that that works for you and it makes you feel comfortable, which is great.

My view is that I am looking for relative value between holdings/companies, and will trade accordingly. So, that may be selling at a loss or selling when it's overbought. It is of course subjective, but anything else is too, especially in exploration.

Here's to a good week everyone.

@glib

Cheers - sounds like a good plan.

@Pjonesy

We have a 2nd bite of the cherry IMO. My view is what is the lowest the SP will be if:
TAI-2 fails and
Drill campaign is halted until next year (May) after rains?

I would guess that would be 10p ish.

OK, so how much paper loss per share would you be prepared to sit on for 8 months? It’s it 5p/share loss, then you could look to aim to get your average to be de-risked to about that level over the next few weeks. Of course that may not be possible.

@glib

@wyn seemed to think the next real target was 21.5p. He advised me to hold off on trading my new shares until that level.
Does that seem a reasonable target? (Not questioning wyn, just gauging another opinion).

@ITV

I don’t come on here a lot over the weekend pal.

Not seen all the threads/posts today.

I will admit that I sometimes find your posts hard to decipher, but I am aware of your condition (horrible word and no offence intended) and I do try to read and understand.
If you feel the need to step back, no problem with that. But don’t feel you have to due to perceived indifference towards you.

If anyone dislikes your posts, they can always filter you.

@wyn

I don’t have a rigid plan for any of my trading. Now, to you that may seem horrendous, but we all work on different emotions.

I accept that I will make mistakes and I do not plan to berate myself for this. I am invested in about 10 companies presently and I accept that I have carried out more DD on some than others.

I don’t want to have a rigid mindset, as that isn’t me. However, just because that doesn’t work for you does not make it wrong. Events happen and you can’t predict that. I also look for ‘value difference’ between my holdings and will sell something even for a loss if I feel there is higher value to be gained by that trade. (More below).

I held multiple 7 figures (in shares) of HE1 before the RNS came out and I had not de-risked. Now, some may call that greed, but we are all here to make money - fact.

My reaction (after the RNS) was to sell and buy back lower, but we all know how the SP opened, so that was not possible. I had no free cash in my SIPP/ISA/GIA, so I took the decision to offload some others which I was slightly down in/break even and top-up (700k more) at 11.6-13.4 range, i.e. the value difference.

That was a calculated risk (like noob67 stated when he decided to hold and not de-risk), as to me there was an outside risk of a long delay, but more likely, the continuation of the campaign.

This statement may seem odd, but on the Weds night after the RNS, I went to clean my teeth, looked in the mirror and just laughed. So much for getting rich quick I thought (BTW, my paper loss was a few hundred £k). I am not risk adverse, and also, am not someone who panics. I took the view that this was a temporary drop and the business case for HE1 was unchanged. Yes, it may have meant a long-term hold but it’s not money I need now.

During the next few weeks I intend to trade these new shares and am also contemplating selling some other holdings purely to add even more here to ride the inevitable SP rise and then sell a large chunk before the next RNS comes out. Even a 30-40% rise on those new funds wold be an excellent return for about 3 weeks investment.

I know this will seem like the road to madness to you, but it works for me :)

@HG64

My average is 33.94. Been holding for 5-6 months but it’s been fairly quiet. I assume the Sir Mick is working on things in the background and we’ll get news when it’s appropriate. In some ways I’m quite pleased at the low price/drop, as I want to add more, but waiting for other shares to complete drills etc and hopefully make decent returns.
Got confidence in this for the long term as the resource is excellent and I feel the team VB have brought in have the experience to deliver.

Interesting thoughts Glib.

I guess as we don’t know if they’ve gone for a 6.75” drill this time, the previous timings may need to be extended.

It feels like we’re back to counting tubes on racks haha.

Thanks Wyn.

I did sell some today at 16.33 and 16.42 but mainly as I wanted some free funds and they were shares i bought between 11.6-13.4 last week.

I'll take your advice and sit tight until we breach 20/21 and the become a trader haha