Member Info for SeagullsFan

Indulge me :).

Been thinking about how some people are questioning DM, and others are getting nervous about the time taken to complete the drill/wireline/publish the RNS.

Does DM come across as a BS merchant?
Can anyone say he seems like a slime-ball?
Clear NO IMO.

Has the drill taken longer than estimated?
Yes, but there are mitigating circumstances. The drill broke and this led to a delay of an estimated 2 weeks (my guess). Is it THAT important that DM didn’t tell us exactly that date/time that the drill broke and the side-track started/completed. No, but some nervous investors seem to want to know every time he f&rts.

I get it that it’s good to be cautious about CEO’s bigging things up, but what would be the point here? Honestly - absolutely none. Why not I hear you ask - let me tell you.
It would be much better for DM to lower expectations and advise of any preparations on the next drill locations. We’ve already been told that this is a potential 3-4 drill program, and a failure on the first drill does not alter the prospects for the next 2-3. But no, DM has encouraged speculation that things are going well (actually, much better than expected/hoped for IMO). But, we’ve heard nothing about alternative drill locations, but he did hint about off-take discussions.

Is it really credible that he is spinning a huge lie when he gains nothing from it?
When I hear people question his integrity, I would say they don’t understand human nature much.

What else do we know?
Well, if the well is a duster, these get completed fast and reported fast too. Hmm, what’s happening here? Jeez, I wonder, maybe, could, possibly, do you think that there is a lot of data to be analysed over the 1200m and they had to drill slower.
DM has already given up big hints that they have encountered HE where they weren’t expecting.
He has said that they were getting increasing readings of HE when they were drilling before the drill broke.

Anyway, just my ramblings and if we don’t get an RNS until next week, I’m chilled.

@DBD

Ha, yes 5M shares so far. Must admin, I’m still tempted to sell some others and increase here. If I do that I’ll probably top-slice during the actual drill and de-risk (assuming good gains by then).

@scott22

Thanks for the detailed reply - really helpful. I got in with AVD @ 2.2767 avg, so up about 50% in about 6 weeks. It was a recommendation from someone on HE1 who has a background in O&G and he felt it was a good investment (he explained more in emails to me).
I want to add more here - that will have to wait as I I either need to offload some holdings or wait for something to succeed, and then top slice. I’m feeling more inclined to take a loss on another holding though, as the growth here seems much better, and the fact that they don’t need to be concerned about any infrastructure to get to market is a big plus too.

Hi DBD.

Seems like there's a gang of us from HE1 drifting here as well as ADV.

I guess there's a difference between ramping a share and giving a heads-up if you think something is worth looking at.

@janedoe
O/T (sorry people). SP for HE1 is hard to predict as too many unknowns, but based on the enthusiasm of DM, I would expect £1+ by year end min, and probably much higher. By end of next year, I would expect £4+ assuming other drills have good results.

@scott22
Excellent information - much appreciated. I have done my own research here, but not as much as I have for HE1.
Question - have you looked at ADV (I'm in them too and I'm very excited about their prospects)?

@Scott22

I'm looking forward to HE1 delivering, then I plan to top-slice and add a chunk here. The potential for all of their exploration zones is really good and they don't need success at all of them. The current SP seems a very good entry point - I just need this to hold for a few weeks around these levels (sorry - just being selfish lol).

@Goldensharewolf Many thanks.

@Scott22

Be very interesting when the RNS get published if they do go to that level of detail as to the ratio of the types of HE. I can't remember the price differential, but it's markedly higher, so another factor in the determination of the SP.

I wonder if Mon is actually too soon to get all this analysed, bearing in mind that the drill was still turning on Monday just gone.

@ITV

Thanks for your kind words. Be comforted by the fact that I am full of confidence in the overall project that is HE1 and DM. I am about 40% of my portfolio invested here, and am not really contemplating a failure.
However, we do need to be mindful of the fact that other people will have a more cautious nature. They may just need reassuring if they get slightly anxious.

Like you, I want to provide as best I can do for my children and be in a position to help friends (and others) when able to.

Anyway, I hope you are keeping well and the b*stards aren't wearing you down hahaha.

Hi ST

Yes, I owe DBD for that tip (went in with 5m @ 2.2767p avg). Up circa 50% so far.
I know the feeling about bad timing too my friend. Got a few others underwater at the moment, even though I bought when I felt it was good. Then lack of news or delays and you get kicked lol.
In regards ADV, I want to add some more, but will monitor as I think there is the potential for a pullback here.
As for the other oiler, RNS looks imminent on that too soon. Could give that some impetus too, so your entry point will still seem low (hopefully).
Enjoy your weekend ST :-D

@Joshwaa
Can you do a chart on ADV and post on their board as I think you're also invested there too.

Can someone post the telegram group link please?
Thanks in advance.

@Xerxes300

There's a difference between what he knows and what he's divulged to the market (albeit, he has given a great deal of hints in his tweets/interviews).

However, of course you are right to be cautious. Those who take more risks will achieve the higher returns, but will also suffer the greater losses.

We all need to make our own choices :)

@BigPlan

No, I've left ADV untouched. That has serious potential too, but HE1 will deliver sooner.

I sold some of my holding in AfriTin (ATM) to free up the funds. I like them too, but that's a slow burner, especially if they can get the Tantalum and Lithium extraction, as this will mean that the Tin production is free. I will add back to ATM later.

On the "Podcast On Twitter" thread, I stated that I would be looking to add after an RNS and that any 'sensible' price would be worth paying if there was a discovery (albeit, this would still be subject to determining if it's commercial, but that does feel like almost a formality).

After much consideration, I decided to to my top-up today (another 55k shares). I've made some decent returns on ADV (in at 2.2767p), so feel all I am risking is the profits within that current holding. Also, there is the risk that there could be limited availability to buy more of HE1 if there is a positive RNS.

All the evidence points to a positive outcome, hence my decision to get in now rather than wait. I realise everyone has a different risk tolerance. Just thought I would give an update.

Increased my holding today - 2 buys. 1 of 25k (10.06p), 2nd of 75k (10.14p).
At these prices, I'll be looking to add when some other funds become available. Just waiting on results/RNS's.

@Scott22

You’ve misread his post. That was in discussion about ADV and not HE1. He did point that out later again to you too.

Just the one beer Dai? ;)

@Scott22

Are you really implying that people on here are talking about a drill campaign about to start and not the completion/testing of the first drill?
Maybe I've misunderstood, but that seem very pedantic, as we're all very aware what's going on out there.

@InJames

The derisked values in the prospectus are based on 4.2% HE. So, if we get 8.4%, the de-risked value will be double. However, until the appraisal is done, the size of the reservoir(s) is unknown, and this will also impact the de-risked Tai value.

What makes up the de-risked value of each drill hole is:
1. HE%
2. Number and size of reservoirs.
3. Ratio of 3HE and 4HE.
4. Selling price of HE, as the prospectus price is low/conservative.

@BigPlan

This is my take on the use of the term "de-risk".

When it's used to describe a dill hole (i.e. Tai), the de-risked value is based on a discovery (assuming the reservoir size and HE% are the same as the original prospectus). In reality, it will be different.

However, when "de-risk" is used to describe the "project", this means that they now have proof of concept in the Rukwa basin. It DOES NOT (IMO) mean that the next 2-3 drills will be a success. It does, however, increase the CoS on each drill.

Therefore, the implied fair value of success at Tai will be 31p + (25p - 4p).
31p is the de-risked Tai value.
25p is the risked value for all 4 drill sites.
4p is the risked Tai value (can't include it twice).
(I may be out on the figures, but this is the principle).

However, on top of that you have the "de-risk" of the basin to factor in, so the CoS of the next holes should be higher, so should be reflected in the SP.
Also, the euphoria of the 'proof of concept' will likely lift the SP higher.

Again, just my guess and others could have equally valid views which would be different.