Member Info for SeagullsFan

Hi Dai.
My opinion (and that's all it is and is as valid as yours) is that when we get the RNS which confirms discovery, this will de-risk the entire basin (that doesn't de-risk the other drill sites though of course). however, it will increase the chances at each subsequent drill.

Therefore, (within reason), the price you pay even up to 50/60p will not be a risk. There is a risk that the price could spike quickly beyond that, then it may be worth holding as some people may choose to take their early profits. You're very aware of the maths involved in this in terms of HE%, so that will be factor as to what you feel is comfortable.

The advantage that we should have is that we will be able to buy before the rush of new investors due to publicity. The MMs will hike the price I'm sure, and there may be limited volume to buy, but that's the risk we're taking. I daren't invest any more before we know as I have enough exposure already.

Be interesting to get @DeepBlueDiver/@SpaceTomato's views on this too.

@Dai @BigPlan

I'm also looking to increase my holding in ADV too (sorry guys for the X Ramp, but a little tolerance eh lol). Been offloading some other shares at the moment, as I want some funds for Mon in case we get the RNS here, and I also want to buy on the dip in ADV.
I managed to get in at avg of 2.2767 for my main holding, but can see it getting substantially higher before the drill in Oct and also, with the other planned projects they intimated.

Good luck ITV.

I hope you get through everything OK - you're definitely what we can refer to as one of lifes characters. Keep smiling pal.

Yep - with results planned for end Nov - early Dec.
Lets hope for great results and details of other deals too. That will give us very nice returns.

Back to the top again - just for the newbies :)

ST

I'll watch it all the way thorough then. Teach me to short-cut things ;).

Agree with your sentiment, and it's quite easy to want to sell-up when a share drops as the fear of losing even more kicks in. Even when we've done our DD, we can questions if we've overlooked something, or, if there's information others know which is not in the public domain yet.

Whatever happens, it's clear us PIs are fair game.

@M900

Any appraisal will be done, as a separate drill after the completion of the exploration drill. If they get to TD and a discovery, this would HAVE to be notified the the market. Failure would lave them open to accusations of insider trading, as news would/could leak out and others wold act on it.

No stop losses for me ST. I'll choose to trade when I want.

Maybe I'm just a control freak ;)

@Glib

You're right that the plan at the start of drilling was Tai and then moving to the other locations, then, after completing the drills, it would be appraisals.

IMO the plans are fluid to a certain degree. Tai was never on the original drill schedule, but was made the first target as it was a "must drill" based on the 2D seismic survey.

We don't know what is actually happening there, so the original plan (at start of drills) may alter as DM/HE1 make decisions based on actual information.

I think we can be sometimes too analytical of the exact wordings used, the timings and the stated plans. This is exploration and as such, it has a number of unknowns.

@joshwaa

I agree that there will be anxiety right now - more so if you are heavily exposed (and I am one of those - 30% of portfolio approx). But, everything to date is actually encouraging and mechanical mishaps happen. As Ndn71 states, even if this is a duster it doesn’t change the logic of the basin being an HE generating area. They will find it, but of course, that would take a lot more conviction to hold in the face of bad news.
Let’s just hope we get the important news by Mon at the latest. :-D

@joshwaa

I think your ‘years’ comment is way off the mark.

We are just over 8 weeks, and the initial estimate was 3 months for the 3 wells.
Let’s assume that they had allowed 5/4/4 weeks per dill. (13 weeks = 3 months).
They never planned to lose up to 2 weeks when the drill stem detached.
So, at 8 weeks, less 2 weeks (lost time trying to fish out the drill, plugging, side track and then drills back to the same depth - so 2 weeks is not an unreasonable estimate IMO).
Therefore, we are about 1 week over to date, so even allowing for an RNS on Mon, that will be 2 weeks.
Therefore, your comment saying years would seem very exteme.
The appraisals were never included in the 3 month timeline, so that was always planned to be additional time.
I realise it’s an exciting/nervous time, but may I politely suggest that slightly emotive posts could unsettle others. THere’s enough of that crap from the MM’s and other unsavoury posters and you are clearly not that way :)

You can’t extrapolate the time for the first drill onto the other drills.

They will be leading about the strata here, and this will help with future drills.

@Magoo247
Thank you for that - that’s really encouraging. I’m relaxed about how things are going, and if the overall drill campaign takes an extra 2 months (assuming we do get great discovery in Tai), then who really cares.

@Joshwaa
In regards to opportunity cost, it’s clear the drilling campaign will now be extended (assuming they do the 3 drills and even the potential 4th drill), but if this is a discovery on Tai (I’m confident), then it may be a few more months, but years is really stretching it.
I’d happily take an extension of 3 months to complete the drills/appraisals with high HE% on all wells. Oh boy, happy days indeed IMO

Bounce again - newbies incoming soon I think ;)

I think I'm all in @ST.

Well, not quite, but enough of my portfolio to be twitchy haha.

(Note to self - don't ever be so exposed on one stock - not good for stress levels).

Looking forward to Monday as that feels like the probable time for an RNS - jeez, what are we going to be like with no news on Monday. Aaaaargh.

@Saint-Tropez

I'm in both HE1 and ZPHR. Hoping for news on HE1 anytime now (next week very likely and IMO, Mon is the likely time, but purely a guess). If the news is what I hope/expect, my plans are to top-slice some of my investment there and add further here and ZPHR (also TXP, CCZ and IQAI - as a real punt).

ADV just seems such a good bargain right now (already have 5m) and with the CoS success here, plus the intimated further 2 deals lined up before end of 2021, it could be huge upside quite quickly. This feels really under the radar still at the moment, and (selfishly) that suits me until I can top up another chunk.

ST

Sounds like a good idea as the uplift in the short-term here is potentially much higher.
I will be looking to top-slice HE soon and then add more into that 'oiler' and also ADV too (all on the assumption of positive news).
If the news is not positive, I'll be acquiring shares in a brewery and staying drunk for a long time to drown my sorrows lol

Have a good weekend and enjoy the anticipation ;)

Hi ST

I've added some more this morning - been thinking about it for a while and added 120k more. Your sentiments are correct and this will be transformational. We won't want to look back and say "It only I had done ...." . We all have our own risk tolerance levels, and I am comfortable with this.

Truly feels like next week is the defining time for many of us long-timers eh!.

GLA - enjoy the weekend and the anticipation for next week.

It amazes me that people can make short-term SP predictions without knowing:
1. How many targets are successful.
2. What the reservoir sizes are.
3. What the HE% concentration is.
4. And what HE price they are using.

But apart from that, of course they know that the SP will do.

Hi BigPlan.

Looks like us HE1 guys are infesting here en-masse now :).

I have high hopes for this - CoS 95% and drilling from end Oct. Results expected end Nov/early Dec. Feels like a bi mult-bag opportunity.

@AgentB

I think you won't go far wrong on that. GYTR - Get Your Trek Research. :-)