Member Info for SeagullsFan

I was just about to post a new thread stating that the SP seems range-bound right now - been this was for almost 2 weeks.

Can't see any decisive movement until we get some news now. Just a holding pattern IMO (and that's not base on charting, just a feeling). People know we're waiting, and any nervous people will have sold out by now I feel.

@Radika

There's a very good presentation which you can google which was recently created with proactive (I believe). It may be 20-30 mins long. If you're looking to invest your money, then surely you can spare 20-30 mins?

I’ve just watched it. Overall, I’m happy and am OK at waiting out the temporary SP drop which was an overreaction IMO.

$24m cash in the bank and no debt. $27m VAT refund still outstanding.

Planning to get 2nd asset producing in 18 months. This will increases production to over 110,000z p.a.

Came across as a little sheepish in regards the impact on SP, but seemed confident for long-term future,

I did 2 * 125k buys this morning. New investor - bought in yesterday with a 350k buy too.
Been watching a while and held off when the price spikes to 7p. Thought I'd bide my time.
Had to sell another holding at a small loss to get in here though, but feel it's a good price.

I'd like the main RNS on a Friday.
Get the initial kick-up from those in the know/watching.
Then news articles in the weekend press.
Then Monday - take-off.

Well, I can hope can't I? ;)

I’m down about 5% today - one share Shanta is down 25% due to slightly lower production figures (slight over reaction IMO).

There’s a difference between price and value. If you think the current SP is cheap, why sell any of your holdings. Of course, if you feel it’s overvalued or your view has changed, why hold (assuming you think it will go lower).

I have no intention of selling anything at the moment. Only downside is, a couple of shares I’m watching have dropped to a nice price and I have no funds lol.

There appears to be a risk-off sentiment in the markets now - time to be patient and look forward a few weeks. It’s always sensible to have enough savings available in cash to cover short/medium term market gyrations.

GLA.

With respect, you name 27 companies and say "to name a few.".

I am invested in 13 and it's difficult doing DD on that number IMO. How can you possibly understand any of your companies if you have 40-50 in your portfolio? What you are doing appears to be seeing companies that others have recommended and have bought (not an issue as we all find out companies from others).

I find it hard to believe that you are down on HE1, as it's not had that much time about the current SP. I am also in a few of the companies you mention, but I accept that the market does not always value companies correctly. If you feel you have made a bad choice on some of your companies then sell and invest elsewhere. No point waiting if it's going to drop more - but that's your call.

Also, maybe you should take time to monitor stocks you are thinking of investing in to see how the price moves and try to time an entry point. There's a few I'm watching and will invest in when I think one or more gives me a cheap entry point. Yes, I may miss out on some, but I hope to more than compensate for that on the ones I do get to buy into.

There are no guarantees and the risks are higher on AIM and junior miners.

Same here. Lots of red across my mix of stocks. Invested in 13 companies, but HE1 is about 30% of that. Mix of miners (Tin, Gold, Vanadium, Copper, Rare Earths, Oil and of course the main one).

Overall up in 4 and down in 9, and the downs are mainly in the 11%-29% range with most not having anything which could be a plausible reason. One has a delayed drilling program (based on bad communications/expectations more than anything else).

I'll be holding as this just feels like general market uncertainty due to the macro happenings (inflation) and a maybe a more 'risk-off' approach. Patience is key here IMO.

Levers = level

@InJames

The general view is (based on discussions in the past here), that after a discovery the SP will obviously re-rate. To what levers it’s impossible to guess as there are :
4 drill holes (how many are discoveries)?
What are the reservoir sizes?
What is the HE concentration%?

However, it will likely be 50p (very conservative) to a figure in several pounds.

Therefore, raising the $50m-$70m financing to cover the production cots will be straight-forward. Most prefer the debt route rather then share placing to limit the dilution. The loan cold be repaid from the first years production, so it’s not onerous at all. If they do the shares route, then the dilution is minimal anyway (assuming say a £1 price).

@dai

Hope you’re right pal. Be good to get some momentum in the SP this week, ready for take=off next week :)

@dai

Hmm, so you’re expecting/hoping for some news tmrw eh!
I’m a bit more reticent as I feel it could be another week - but I’d like it if I were to be surprised earlier :).

Before we started the drill on Tai, DM was good at social media updates showing the preparation work.

Tai will be complete shortly (lets assume max 1 week from here).
So, why no updates as to the preparation of the next drill location?
The plan has always been to drill all 4 holes and then do the appraisal, and their share options are linked to an on-time/successful complete of drilling (successful being a discovery/commercial reservoir IMO).

Plans change in business all the time, so the only thought I have is that they plan to go from drill to appraisal as they ‘know’ they will have discovery. Someone mentioned that new options could be issued which would reflect the change (and, assuming success, no-one would begrudge them).

If they weren’t confident of discovery, then they would want to keep the mood upbeat by saying “we’re onto drill site 2 in n days time”. But nothing.

There’s no reason for the silence on this from a commercial sensitivity, so it seems strange.

Anyone any other thoughts?

A lot of people have been misunderstanding the use of 10.6%.

That was in relation to the seeping helium which has been measured in the basin in the past and nothing to do with HE shows whilst drilling. He could not have made such an announcement without an RNS I don’t believe as it would be market sensitive information.

ST

If/when HE1 gives us decent returns, I’ll be adding here and forgetting about it. It’s easy to run-down this company as they don’t have a mine yet. But, Sir Mick has a very good track record (excluding X2 Resources), so I am very comfortable with my holding here and I expect good returns over the next 2-3 years.

I’ll be happy if this stays sub 30p for a few more weeks (sorry to others but that’s just my selfish position), then it can rise :)

@DBD

Thanks for that - be interesting. Dai commented about Renergen if that helps.

What’s your take on timeline for the TD to be reached? I can’t see this being RNS’d by Monday, and feel like another week before we know. But others seem to think it could be sooner.

Any thoughts?

@Noob67

I did a top-up earlier in the week at 22p. I missed the drop on Monday, and then was pondering about adding more.

I got my knuckles rapped by @ST though, as he knows my exposure here haha

But, I am comfortable with the risk. As ST states, there’s been a log of thorough analysis by very clever/informed posters on here which has given us a lot of reassurance.

Just need that last bit of good news now peeps eh!

Well Steve, you may get a “Wife Changing” amount of money from this ;)

ST

Only rumours my friend - nothing factual. I think you’re more likely to make better gains here in the short-term, and hopefully the price will still be low in a few weeks to spread your risk.

I couldn’t risk any more funds in HE1. Already my largest holding and need to be sensible lol

@dai

You continue to be a mine of research. That’s very interesting, and actually alters the dynamics of the SP quite dramatically.

The SP will be valued based on a limited volume in a reservoir - but if that constantly replenishes at a commercial rate - wow.

You might not be looking to buy that pub Dai, you may be buying the brewery :-D