Member Info for SeagullsFan

My take on potential SP.

First, the de-risked value of the ‘estimated’ reservoirs on the first 4 holes is £1.33 (from memory).
Important.to bear in mind, this is based on a conservative HE concentration of 4.2% and a low price of HE.

Therefore, if the concentration is say 8.4%, the £1.33 becomes £.2.66.

Next, if the reservoirs are larger, the value increases more (unknown).

Then, we already know that the price being used is very conservative and demand is going to increase, therefore, this could be 50% higher. Suddenly £2.66 becomes £4.00.

Hang on, we’ve only drilled 4 holes, plus there are other exploration areas as well, on top of the additional holes.

So, does £10 suddenly seems so preposterous. Again, this is not an overnight SP, but is something which COULD be achieved over 1-2 years.
Why do I feel that? First, as one part of the business is focussing on delivering the production, another part of the business will be working away to develop more drill locations. It won’t be a single process as is occurring now.

Just my take on things.

@JC-130

Tell me about it. I don’t know what they think is worse - questioning BMN or being invested in FAR?

It seems like :
“How do you want to die? Drowning or burnt alive”
“I don’t want to die”.
“That’s not an option”.

@Bunsa

Yeah, I’ll happily sit next to ST and DBD. I’ll have a drink with dai, but I fear I won’t be able to keep up with him. Starting arrangements could be difficult - how to offend people - be looks being back at school haha.

@SeaHawk

Actually, I'm quite happy to have a steady rise and not big swings up and down. 9% rise is very nice and hopefully, with that small drop at the end, it will mean that tomorrow will be another steady tick-up.

I wonder whether we've now seen the last of sub 25p prices? Maybe @glib or @joshwaa can give us some thoughts on the charts.

@Bunsa

Hmm, is that people wanting space next to me, or you saying you know there will be space next to me? As in "Billy No Mates" ;)

@DBD

I think I got the recommendation from our mutual friend ST for FAR. However, I do feel as though this is a good long-term play.

@ST
Cr ap happens - I’m OK holding my BMN for the time being as I feel it will bounce back. Market sentiment varies over time and does not always give true fair value.

ST

I agree with you - the 138bcf is possibly conservative and the concentration % will likely be higher.
Scary numbers we’re talking about here - when you consider that we’re nearly all in sub 20p average and other are quite a bit lower. I’ve averaged up, but I’m OK with that.

Can you imagine what is going through DMs head right now? Jeez - his dream for years is now so close to being achieved. Good luck to the guy - he deserves to be stinking rich at the end of this.

ST

That’s the truth ST. I’m in the Telegram group and the laugh at the thought of £10 SP. I know we won’t get there straight away, but with decent reservoir sizes and concentration %’s, and also the unexplored areas which will get drilled, the resource valuation is huge here.

I cannot put a price on it, but I would say that @Trek is being conservative at £5. Just my uneducated opinion of course.

@DBD

You are usually very measured in your comments (except when talking about islands haha), so if you have the view that the potential from the 1st drill is as you describe, then that’s very encouraging.

All the comments from various observers seem to imply that HE1 are on the verge of something big over the next few months - getting exciting now as we’re so close to knowing I feel. Another week maybe.

With ref to lucky strike and his post about people on telegram saying £10 by Christmas.

He’s full of sh_!t. No they aren’t. Most would be pleased with a.SP of £1 and very pleased with more than that. Seems like Lucky Strike is someone who needs to crave attention.

Thanks dai - useful information as usual.

Once the TD is reached, how long does it take to :
Cement/prepare the well?
Run the wireline and perform the tests?
Do the analysis?

@Prae

I hope you are right - it's just that my expectations have now moved out. I was hoping/expecting an RNS for 400m Wed this week, and after the last interview where he explained everything, I reset my thoughts to a longer timeline (saves being disappointed haha).

If it's another 10 days - I don't really care. By the end of the year, I won't b bothered if the discovery was announced on 5th or 12th July (just give me a discovery though please) lol.

ST

That's my guess (a week Monday). Yes, it is purely a guess with no experience to back it up, but if they were about 400m on Wed, then that would give them 10 odd days to complete the drill, prepare the will, wireline and analyse. Of course, I'll be very happy to be proven wrong and something happen sooner.

My view is - we will get a discovery, just a matter now of timing - famous last words eh ;).

@BigPlan

If he gives you them, don't select them as he's obviously deluded.

There will not be an RNS Monday - they've got 800m to drill (starting from Wed just gone,) then wireline, analysis and produce the RNS. And that's all going to be done for Monday - PMSL.

As I've posted before - look as his demeanour in the interview. He is excited by what is happening and is having to be very careful in what he is saying due to market rules.

I believe what he has said is true and that they either know they have a discovery or are extremely confident of one. He didn't say "hopefully get a discovery" he said "drill to the bottom to the discovery" (or words to that effect).

You are looking for issues where none exist. That doesn't mean they are guaranteed to find commercial HE, it just means they are very confident that they will.

I'll be happy if this stays about this level for a few weeks - need something else to spike first to release some funds :)

But yes, we don't seem to be getting the uplift we should be, but AIM/exploration/mining seems to be on a bit of a downer at the moment. That'll change though.

IMO, we won't get an RNS next week if they are drilling to the bottom.
After the drill, then then need to run the wireline and then test/analyse before writing any RNS.
Just relax people - another week is not THAT important really.

I mean @ST (sorry lol) ;)

@FlySeal @SR

Exactly. There’ are no rules as to HOW a company chooses to drill. If they do something which results in them identifying something which is price sensitive they need to report it.
However, they don’t have to do the wireline test unless they choose to.

Just watched the clip again - he’s buzzing isn’t he. That’s not the demeanour of a man under pressure.