Member Info for SeagullsFan

@ITV

Haven’t seen any post which you need to apologise for - so we’re all good (apart from the SP) lol.

Every post you make about HE1 is negative. Not even acknowledging that they may still target the shallow traps with a water-rig. Things are not a clear-cut as you would like to make out and a shallow trap discovery would be very supportive of the SP.

You sound like you are trying to drive the price down so you can buy in lower.

@Oiler87

That would be great news - factor in say $75 price of Oil and that would change the target valuation substantially.

@Glennhoss

Just had a quick look at your posting history. Every post appears to be negative on everything.

You seem full of excrement being honest.

I’m happy to wait and see them come back with a clear plan of their next steps - I do think the selling activity before Tai-2 was complete was questionable, but that does not mean that it was leaked from HE1. It could have been brokers or Mitchells.

However, as annoying as that it, it goes with the territory. PI’s are fair game or so it seems.

@marik

My initial thoughts on the wording around the water-drilling was that this was to placate shareholders and there would be nothing until next year. I must admit that I may have been hasty and that they will be trying to target a number of shallow targets as well as the seismic survey before year-end.

My view is they would like at least one discovery (even low volume) to boost the SP, thereby enabling any raise to dilute the SP less than it would otherwise.

I would now be expecting an RNS to clarify their position some time before next Friday???

Much more reasons to be positive IMO.

@noob67

I agree with your views - much more bullish news than I was expecting (I had set low expectations of HE1 until next year, but was OK with that).

However, I must admit I will need to re-assess now. The fact that they have referred to a drilling campaign with a water-rig during the wet-season (the short-rains) leads me to believe that this is now more likely than I had previously expected.
Also, the low level of cash burn is encouraging.

My view now is they will look to get one or more lake-bed discovery through the rest of this year as well as doing the new seismic survey. If they get the low-level discovery, this will boost the SP and mean the the implied rise needed for a more extensive deep-well campaign next summer will result it less dilution.

Very encouraging and I’m glad I’ve not sold a single share :).

@saint-tropez

Be handy if they oil price was to stabalise over $70, then this may get factored into the 12.6, as it's currently based on $50 in the RISC assessment. Could be a very good 4-6 months here.

@dai

Yeah, he emailed me today. He’s all good - just busy with some stuff and avoiding the fall-out on here :). Not heard from Mr ST though. Hopefully, he’s just having a good time in France and chilling.

There’s a new presentation for ADV today on youtube - worth a look if you’ve not seen it.

Hopefully we’ll get something from DM & the team over the next couple of weeks to explain their thoughts.

I feel the same (not based on TA, just own view of the movements). Seems there’s a holding pattern right now from 8.5 - 9.5. Tried to break up and down but keeps coming back here.

Prefer it to be higher, but if this is where it stays for 6 months or so, that’s OK. Don’t think I fancy seeing 5-6p (unless I get more funds to buy some more) lol.

@ITV

I’m holding pal, not sold one yet. Might do some trading if/when they pick up a little - assuming we get some news. But I’m here (licking my wounds), and will be here for the long-run mate.

You ain’t seen the last of me yet, just not a lot happening so not much to say.

Glad you still have positive thoughts ;)

Another good interview. Hopefully will raise the profile a little more.

Good 4 months coming up hopefully.

Thanks Jezzac.

Interesting he talks about 4 deals being discussed and also "No Deal Is Better Than A Bad Deal" (now, that sounds familiar) :-D.

He seems quietly confident - good interview.

Should have quantified - exploration of HE.

HE1 is still an exploration company. No more than that. Anything else is hope and speculation.
The majors do not do exploration - it’s not what they are about. The with buy up/JV explorers once they have proven a resource.

If you were the major, why would you JV with HE1 rather than just buy the company? The capital required to acquire them now to a major is loose change, so why share a percentage of the profits from the HE when that would be much higher than the cost of buying them.

Just because some people want a major to come in and JV does not make it likely IMO. No-one will be interested until we have proven something commercial. HE1 saying they have proven trap/seal is irrelevant to a major - they want an asset not an opportunity.

@dai

Agree that the wording in relation to the shallow drilling was, IMO, disingenuous. It felt like something said to keep the PIs placated but with no substance behind it. “Weasel words”.

They should be open and honest - if their plans are 3D seismic followed by a drill campaign with a larger rig starting next May, I’m OK with that. This was never a short-term project (OK, if they’d struck commercial HE in Tai it would have been great). Exploration takes time and often encounters failures. It’s easy for people who’ve not invested to say they felt it was dodgy that’s why they didn’t invest, but the upside here is huge - much bigger than a normal exploration company, hence it was worth the risk.

Patient long term holders will (IMO) be rewarded here eventually. The chances are very high that they will find at least one commercial reservoir, then the SP shoots much higher.

I also feel that they also need to get their comma sorted - reduce the exuberance (swimming in HE, “You Betcha”, etc.).

@Oiler87

Don’t mention HE1 please :-D. Hold a lot of those, but looking to recover my losses on ADV. I still think HE1 will be a success, but the first drill campaign was not well executed IMO.

Like you, I’m astounded that the price is still so low here considering the de-risked value of 12.6p (post production I believe), and the COS of 95% on drill and 86% for production. Incredible figures. Yet, we’re still at 3.2p roughly . I sold another holding to add here today as I expect/hope this will be around 6p during there drill. Will take a % of profits then and leave the majority to ride at a lower average.
GLA.

@dai

OK, so after the production is started (86% chance of production), not on a successful drill. I believe that they will be using the same hole for production as exploration. I could see late teens for them if another agreement is concluded and the drill is successful. Of course, there’s still a risk of not being successful.

@Wyn.

Agree it's a tough one to call right now. We either get some news which supports the price or we get nothing major and then we have a lull for say 6 months or so. Buying at these levels (assuming someone takes the long-term view and not expecting material upside in a few months) would appear to be a good ploy.

I have no 'dry powder' so need to wait for one or more (hopefully) of my others to tick higher before I could consider topping up here.

I don't know it you've looked at ADV at all, but COS on their drill campaign scheduled in late Oct is 95% and a de-risked value of 12.6p. Current price is circa 3.2. They also have 2 other agreements being negotiated which, if one or both came off would upgrade the projected NAV even higher.

Hi Wyn.

Very true - I’ve been avoiding the board as the posts have been way too emotional.

I’m playing a waiting game here as we have a long time until the next drill (IMO). Plenty of time to accumulate/reduce depending upon your preference.

Personally, I’m not expecting anything material from HE1 now until next year, so my expectation is for a gradual decline in the SP as more decide to cut their losses and bail. Of course, I’ll be delighted if there is something before hand - just setting my own expectations.

Could be a good time for others to buy in/top-up and look to gain when the momentum picks up spring next year. If the SP gets to say 16/20/25p during the next drill, that’s a 2-3 bagger from here. Not bad for 9 months investing.

Also topped up another 830k today (3 buys 400k, 300k & 130k).
Will look to de-risk during the drill when the price is hopefully a bit higher.