Member Info for SeagullsFan

@ITV

I might have known you’d lower the tone with your ‘cr@p’ jokes eh! Hahaha.

There’s nothing else to really divulge mate. Just take what happened this year at face value and DM acted in good faith. Does that mean next year it will be guaranteed - I’m afraid not. But it does inspire confidence (from me) that the project geology is sound. How well the execution transpires next year is of course subject to our own opinions.

@sash - No worries - maybe I took your post the wrong way. There’s been so much garbage posted on here about DM and the company, maybe some of us could be accused of being ‘touchy’ lol.

My only real gripe about the drill campaign was the obvious (again IMO) leak that things were going to be wound up on Tai-2 with no discovery, allowing selected “in the know” investors to bail at the expense of PI’s. Hey, ITV, you should change your username to “InTheKnow” - come in from the emptiness ;).

@odysseus07
I have over 3m shares and I am down over 50% too. **** happens eh! Lol.
I don’t want to go into details, but I’ve had this from 2 unrelated sources. One was less of a direct confirmation and the other was a ‘closer’ contact. I won’t expand anymore than that - not as it’s insider trading or anything like that, but I don’t feel I should divulge. It’s not a secret (as DM intimated quite clearly what he felt in the interviews), but it’s confirmation that what he has said there has been said in other conversations, so it’s not a different message.

In terms of Tai-2, this was not discussed but my own thoughts are they wanted to get a shallow discovery as the rig was on-site and knew they didn’t have the time to prep a new site and drill.
This turned out to be a failure IMO (however it gets sold) but that goes with exploration.

I believe that in DM’s media interactions he was genuine and it was bad luck (bad planning) that led to the washout. I know some want to accuse him of ramping/spin, but I don’t (even though I’m sat on a very substantial paper loss).

@Aussie_princess
No, only that there was a lot of confidence. That may explain why they never prepared a 2nd drill site as they were sure they would get the discovery. (Again, that’s only my guess).

I only post this as I’m fed up with the usual losers posting the same BS about DM. Enthusiasm and spin are different - yes, maybe he let his enthusiasm get the better of him, but I still feel he’s genuine.

The only other point I would make (and again this is my own position and does not come from any knowledge) is that there is still no guarantee of a discovery on the shallow targets/deep drill. I believe they will make the discovery but who knows what issues they may encounter!

@sash

I have been informed (within the last month or so) from someone that they were very confident that they had made a discovery, albeit subject to the wireline testing. Due to the washout, they couldn't do that.

Therefore, your point about DM and his dirty tricks is very misleading.

Now, you can choose to dismiss my post, but there are a number of posters on here who know that I'm not a ramper nor a BS merchant.

This will come good - be that from the shallow drill or the deeper drill. It's just a matter of time and patience. I will be looking to accumulate more later in the year/early next year but funds are invested elsewhere (that's right, isn't it Wyn! haha).

Based on a trace gas in the atmosphere (0.04%), which is necessary for life. Water vapour is much more of a greenhouse gas, and as for the “97% of scientists” - that’s propaganda and data manipulation.

https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2014/09/Warming-consensus-and-it-critics1.pdf

Also, look up Patrick Moore (co founder of Greenpeace and a lifelong environmentalist) on YouTube who dismisses the climate alarmism as garbage. There’s many other scientists who do speak out but lots won’t as they get defunded as not being “on message”.

@Oiler87

The upside to HE1 on a discovery was much higher than here. It’s risk/reward. I accept it’s easy to ridicule when something doesn’t work out, but that doesn’t mean that it’s a bad decision. Blindly assuming they will get a discovery is though. I knew what I was doing and the risks and everyone has a different level of risk tolerance.

I’ve been told from ‘connected’ people that they were very confident of a discovery on the Tai-1 drill. However, as they had chosen a a mineral rig and the strata was unstable, they suffered a lot of washout on the hole meaning they couldn’t wireline. It was not a duster - just not able to prove.

I held my shares and have taken a long-term view with them. IMO, they will make a discovery and next season they will be drilling with an O&G rig.

Anyway, this is not HE1 and I am very happy to be heavily invested here. You win some and lose some. All part of the fun eh! :)

Fair enough Wyn. As long as we all find out own way of making some profits, it's all good eh! :-)

Hi Wyn.

I know you sometimes get some stick from people, but you are always courteous to others and will answer any questions where you can.

I would question your logic to using TA as (what appears to be) the only or possibly, the main way, of identifying companies to invest in.

IMO, fundamentals are the most important and then (assuming one believes in TA), then TA would be secondary. To me, the first thing is to identify companies you feel comfortable investing in and then, if you so wish, use TA to try to time the trades.

That’s just my take and no offence intended :)

@zeusfurla

Previously, the debt/equity has been discussed a being 30% equity and 70% debt. That can of course change.

@Wyn

Maybe Friday - after the proactive interview tomorrow. Or maybe not! (I'm like a chartist and covering my bases haha).

Hi ITV/Dai

Hope all good with you both. Saw that you posted on the ADV board Dai - warming up there now which is good. ??

I’m still holding ITV.- sold a few to fund a Pre-IPO offering I’m investing in, but apart from that, still hold over 90% of what I had. Will look to add more later this year/Q1 next year as, like you, I still have faith in the geology. Patience will be rewarded.

I also added 400k worth today. Otherwise I would have felt I was missing out lol.

SO much for my plans to sell some at 4p. I updated my ‘plan’ as the rise from mid 3p range to over 4p was quite quick and felt there was momentum. 5p is my new 4p :)

Well, I added just over 300k shares as it had dropped. Sold something else to free-up funds :)

Agreed, the 12.6p is conservative, but I wonder how can we determine the ‘potential’ value as this should be linked to the projected oil price once production starts, which is estimated end of 2023?.

Would it be reasonable to value ADV (after the drill) based on projected reserves at todays price, or projected future price?

What is clear is that whatever value is attributed to the oil price for valuing the reserves, it will be north of the RISC valuation. If the column of oil is higher too, then end of this year/early next year could see a decent rise from the current SP level.

With the rig appearing to be mobilised this weekend too, next week could be another good one for us.

Long-term – $70/bbl, up from $60 (but much more likely to be $90 and possibly higher): Here MS defines 'long term' as the period starting in 2023 and stretching into the second half of the decade – it is not meant to reflect the period after 2030, which is an altogether different matter. Taking the thesis of this report to its logical conclusion would suggest that also by 2023/24, and beyond, oil prices will need to be at those 'demand destruction' levels - i.e. $85- 90/bbl, possibly higher. However, there is still a small-but-non-zero possibility that the scenario that kicked off this note plays out: that oil demand indeed falls sharply as decarbonsation efforts gain momentum and that this triggers a competition for market share amongst the major producers – i.e.as the window closes, the oil industry rushes to monetize its resources.

In this scenario, prices would probably be driven to very low levels, most likely close to the ~$35/bbl that the IEA estimates in Exhibit 24. But there is a very big "if" here - for this scenario to play out, important technological breakthroughs need to be made and/or more invasive government measures will need to be put in place (recall those trillions in QE that central banks will need to inject to get the Net Zero scenario on its feet - yeah, that) in order to realize the demand decline. At the same time, increased funding needs to emerge to finance this production expansion. As Morgan Stanley puts it, "that scenario appears unlikely, but it is possible nonetheless." The main use of the long-term price forecast is for equity valuation purposes. Therefore, it needs to reflect the weighted-average across all possible scenarios, not simply the scenario with the greatest likelihood. On balance, the bank raises its long-term forecast for Brent to $70/bbl,up from $60 before, while conceding that the most likely long-term price will be $85-90 "possibly higher."

Short term - $95/bbl by1Q22, up from $77.5: At the moment, oil markets are objectively tight. So far this year, observable inventories have declined by ~450 million barrels – a draw rate of ~1.8 mb/d. MS expects this to persist for the remainder of 2021 and into the first part of 2022. As we argued above, oil prices disconnected from marginal production costs already some time ago. Instead, they are searching for the level at which demand destruction starts to kick in.

What this level is, is fiendishly difficult to know. However, Exhibit 30 and Exhibit 31 may give an indication. Here we show the dollar-value of oil consumption, expressed as a percentage of GDP (in other words, the oil burden on GDP) by region. At the global level, the oil burden on GDP would be ~3.6% if Brent were to remain at $84/bbl for a full year. That is still well below the level of 4.5% that prevailed during 2011-14.

This analysis suggests there could still be ~30% upside to oil prices before the oil burden reaches the average of 2011-14. However, there is broad dispersion across regions in this: For the developing economies in Asia (incl. China) and North America, it could be as high as 50%, but for Eastern Europe, South America and Africa,another 10-15% rise in oil prices would get it there. Another 10-15% rise in oil prices would drive Brent to ~$95/bbl, which is Morgan Stanley new forecasts for 1Q22.

Medium term – $85/bbl, up from $75/bbl: The short term and the long term connect in 2022,and when they do so there may well be a wobble. Next year, US shale production will probably grow. Publicly-listed oil companies have barely added any rigs for the last 6 months, but privately owned E&P companies have increased activity materially. Therefore, production growth in 2022 will not look anything like the 2016-19 cycle in US shale, but should nevertheless expand by ~0.7 mb/d. In addition, a return to the JCPOA may unlock ~1 mb/d of additional exports from Iran. Also, OPEC still has spare capacity to unwind. Whilst the oil market is tight now and will be tight again in 2023/24, there may be a softer period in 2022.

(tbc...)

@ShareInvestment

My expectations of price before results has been about 5-6p and maybe 8-9p after results and before any new news about other agreements.
I do wonder now if there could be more momentum now which could get us over 6p before the results are known. As you say, maybe less early investors selling out with COS @95%.

I have a couple of Pre-IPO investments coming to market next month (SpecX and Tech Minerals). If these do well, then that will give me flexibility to not take profits before the results. There’s a good chance of exceeding the expectations and, add to that the oil price, the 12.6p could be noticeably higher. Just my opinion.

Just taken an opening position here of 1250 shares. Not a lot, but couldn't free up more funds quickly enough today.

I've been watching since about 290p and was kicking myself when they hit nearly 500p. Can't believe they've dropped so much on what appears to be only slightly negative recent news. Fundamentals seems strong and a cold NH winter will do wonders for them.

I am one of those who was looking to take some profits at 4p (and then look to trade that again), but as there still appears to be some momentum I'm happy to leave things for now. Might be a bad decision but this will keep going higher IMO. If not this week, then quite soon.

@Pjonesy
Hope you're right on the shallow targets - I'm just setting low expectations for myself. Still invested heavily here and will probably add more over the winter if it stays low. Patience lol.

Glad Viktor still doing well for you - sometimes players just need change of scenery and new environment. If the Sky Blues can tighten their defence then cold be a good season for you. :)

mcap is just shy of £40m. LSE has the shares count wrong.