Member Info for Scampthedog

You have no chance, in the next several years I might add, of seeing the s.p at £7.00 , CATICHE; will be a long, long while before this stock surpasses its once former lofty heights. But there could be a chance of 175...if, that is, like I mentioned earlier, it all goes -- t!ts up!! But hey, if it does, don't see it as a disaster...just see it as another great buying opportunity. All will come good (actually ...far better than just good) in time. Just needs time...and, of course, patience: the rarest virtue.

I certainly don't subscribe to a s.p of 175 myself...but...and it is not an inconceivable "but", if Royal Mails "Five Year Plan" investment goes pear-shaped due to any amount of reasons (for instance: a perceived threat to jobs, lose of several big contracts, a bigger than expected downturn in the volume of letters...or even parcels (highly unlikely!) unreasonable pay demands or any other issue which might lead to a call for balloting for industrial action...etc, etc) then - yes! 175 might well be the share price in the not so distant future. Personally I do not see it as an issue. Simply put: I see the Royal Mail as just too big to fail. As long as you are patient, are in it for the next 6-8 years and have cash to invest when the price drops, on occasion) downwards sharply, plus, of course (even at 15 pence) the generous dividend (reinvested as shares of course) then I do not understand what all the drama is about. I have said it before and I say it again: the only way you can lose here is in the short term - for instance: strapped for cash, trading on a day to day basis or shorting it...yes, you could well come a cropper or lose a shilling or two. But long term -- I just don't see how we lose? Stand to be corrected of course.

Looks like this goose is returning south early this year...at least we will all know where its at.

Well, bluesky687, I suppose it is as good as any other "ailing" company on the AIM to have a punt on. Who knows...they might just come through; mind you -- firstly they need to be able to survive on their own! If they cannot stand up on their own two feet from here on in then nobody else is going to help them.

Anyone with an average of above £4.50 must have a hell of a lot of shares that were bought when the price was well over £6.00 a share -- and must still be holding em! Even I could'nt make a blunder of that magnitude. £4.50? Are you sure, Falkland?

Did...Yaawwwnnnn...someone...someone just yank my chain? Hhmmm...nowww then...letsss see. Time to buy yet? Errr...maybe not. Soon perhaps. Soon.

The next possible confrontation (in processing) between the CWU and senior management (if indeed it comes at all) might well be in October: the further reduction to the basic working week (by one working weekly hour) occurs, per the "Four Pillars" agreement, down to 37 hours weekly. To cover the reduced presence of staff off the floor it has been acknowledged by management that they might have to initiate a four day working week; in effect this may well be a case of taking a typical shift and, using seniority (those with most service choosing in descending order), splitting it to cover the five working days. For example: a 10- 6 shift (nights) with say 20 people working on it would be split into two groups...but both still working nights: 10 working Monday night to Friday morning -- and ten working Tuesday night to Saturday morning...as is the case of the present 10 - 6 shift. This was, at first reaction, well received by the majority. Well received that is until some more forward thinking persons began to think it through: obviously this may well not just make it harder (physically) for an individual who wishes to enhance their wages through the plentiful (at the moment) availability of overtime, but, in some cases, the overtime may not be there to do...It may be that wanting to work on your extra day off is banned due to that particular day only being available for overtime for the people working that particular day as part as their normal shift pattern; most posties work varying degrees of overtime to enhance their already very generous wages. Some of them do extraordinary amounts of overtime -- 15 to 20 hours is not uncommon! This working of the overtime has always been actively encouraged by management as it reduces the wages bill considerably; this is due to the Angard agency staffing costing many times more, when covering the extra work, than what is paid out to posties. And herein lies the problem...if, like I said previously, it is indeed going to be a problem: If doing overtime is banned on your day off, and if the thought or actual effort of increasing your proposed shift of 9 hours and fifteen minutes a day to include a couple of extra hours is much too daunting, then what option to do your overtime? A lot of depots have weekend shifts (but would you want to work at the weekends after 4 x 9.25 hour shifts?)...but not all of them do. This will all change in two short years from now of course...because, by then, the posties will all be working a 35 hour week...and -- happy days!! But it is certainly a cause for some consideration in the short term.

And of course -- Falkland was spot on!! You...errrr...ahem...forgot to mention that of course. Oh! And...errrr...ahem...dare I mention it...you...errrr...ahem -- were wrong!! ...errrr -- once again that is!! Good night all. Yawwnnnnnnn.

Well, Redceo, you were wrong to debunk my 2.30 - 2.40 s.p when the s.p, at the time, was quite a bit higher ( you openly scoffed at the thought and went into print on this board to state I was just trying to spread panic as I was a shorter with my own hidden agenda) -- and you were even more wrong when Falkland suggested it would go considerably lower! You are hardly some sort of "oracle" Redceo. More like a self-appointed chief ramper.

Redceo, if you would like to remind us all of just one occasion when you have actually been right in any of your assertions regarding the Royal Mail s.p (or any other one thing regarding Royal Mail for that matter) over the last several months then please go ahead and remind us all of it. I suggested to this board a while back, when the price was considerably higher than now, that a true value for these shares was in the 2.30 - 2.40 range...as we all know -- I was dead wrong! And your reaction at the time? -- a tirade of abuse!! You are a complete plonker of the worst sort: a self-opinionated, pompous, overbearing braggart who has not got any idea of any sort of what the Royal Mail is truly all about...but you certainly like to give the impression you do thats for sure.

I would have to agree with all of your thoughts, idedat...it all sounds about on the money to me. Regarding the share price being £4.00 next April -- I very much doubt it!! The next quarterly figures won't be anything to shout about I should imagine...and depending on what sort of Christmas they have (which constitutes the vast, overwhelming portion of their yearly profits) will determine the s.p in the New year. I personally think it would more likely be 2021 before we see the s.p back up to £4.00 plus...would love to be badly wrong of course. :)

I could not agree more with your rant, Ajok. Without a doubt this company is just a complete pile of hype. By the time its innovative and pending new technologies (5G) have a chance to be adopted and thrive it will have been overtaken by newer and more aggressive, market savvy companies..."adroitness" in the handling of their own companies public persona is most definitely not an IQE strong point it would sadly seem. God bless em!!! Mind you the old codgers seem to be filling their boots at regular intervals readily enough...certainly does not inspire investor confidence what. Chin, chin, old boy! Lol. :)

Hello again Woodstock. Yes very well thank you...hope your the same. Still holding some here (regrettably)...but don't hold out much hope now. It always was going to come down to a straight win or lose -- looks like they lose! I think this is a real shame what has happened to this company: bright minds, great ideas...and greedy, overpaid directors with grandiose designs -- lions led by braying donkeys! Can they survive? Who knows? Certainly not I. Perhaps they can find some wealthy, entrepreneurial private investor like Peter Jones? I cannot see the markets, in any shape or form, bailing them out again. Like I said: a real shame! Just as it all seems to be coming together they are now quickly running out of gas; they have as good as admitted that in the RNS they released recently. Would I buy back in? Woodstock...I just would'nt know!

I personally have still been spending a few tranches over the last couple of weeks -- as finances dictate...but concede that the price may well fall somewhat after the ex-dividend date. After all it would only be reasonable to suppose the price may move up beyond its true market value as "pay day" approaches; however I still don't anticipate a big sell off...just the normal profit taking as you might expect. Moral is: don't get too greedy over the forthcoming weeks. This does, at the moment though, look like a much welcomed and sustainable rise.

Going for a lie down in the kennel...give me a gentle prod when the drilling restarts in earnest -- or Georgia even! Continuing to hold...won't be buying, even at these prices, until something actually happens.

Thought I would take another gander at that July 8th RNS again. Errmm...is it that those sketchy details contained within are not a bit...er..."tenuous"? for want of a better word. I am still holding here...just.

You are most welcome, StYd. I am not trying to scaremonger any investors...just trying to make people aware of both sides of the same coin. I truly believe that, in the long run, the Royal Mail will prove to be a good, solid investment. Anyone investing for the long term (five years at least) will not only see a healthy increase in the s.p but will also enjoy the added benefit of the generous dividend. However, industrial action at some point in the near future is a real possibility and cannot be just dismissed out of hand...let us most fervently hope this is not the case. Many thanks.

Falkland, whether you people like it or not, is quite correct: without shorting you cannot possibly have a stock market. That is an immutable truth. You cannot have any stock that just progressively climbs upwards...obviously. In fact it is so bl**dy obvious it really is'nt even worth discussing further. So I won't.

In my opinion, StYd, and, again, this is just my opinion, the Royal Mail, when discussing its financial prospects, is so, so much more than just mere basic fundamentals. You really cannot, unless you have worked in a typical Royal Mail depot (whether that be a mail centre or distribution centre) truly understand the (almost unique I would have thought) restraints and impositions placed upon the managers (read that as "business") due to the agreed work protocols that are incumbent upon the Royal Mail. For instance: managers cannot tell people to do something, they must ask politely...and use the word "please". This is all to do with dignity and respect (further championed in the recent 4 pillars campaign); the CWU are not happy with the latest developments, they feel the established agreed atmosphere, of what they regard as common decency and congeniality, has started to go backwards in recent months and are therefore seeking urgent talks with Rico Back himself to resolve what they claim is a lot of very negative feedback coming off the floor back to them through the respective local union reps. In other words: they do not see the imperative need for the prevailing atmosphere of mutual back slapping and "carrying-on-regardless", despite the company's recent massive downturn, to have to be modified in any way...just as the ailing infrastructure also has to be massively modified. A large proportion of the workforce (and most obviously the union itself) just seems incapable of understanding or accepting the absolute necessity of change regarding their own individual work ethic and mindset. And therein lies all the frightful potential for confrontation. And if any of you doubt me just print these words into your search engine: "CWU: emergency moition E2". It will take you straight to the very gist of it. I would encourage all investors to read it carefully through...you might, then, and only then, truly understand what you are all investing into.

The one thing most people (in my humble opinion that is) tend to overlook concerning RMG is this: Royal Mail does not, like any "normal" company, have its beginnings rooted in good fertile ground...it was never intended, at its inception, to make a profit -- and thats going back over 500 years!! It was the idea of a King, who, although a tyrant, was a capable administrator who realized that a speedy courier service under royal warrant (who the hell 500 years ago when "hung, drawn and most horribly quartered" was commonplace would have been insane enough to attack his majesty's courier service??!!!) would vastly improve commerce in his kingdoms steadily increasing population and ever growing economy. The Royal Mail, like any nationalized company...I should think, when required to stand on its own two feet, has done remarkably well considering 6 short years ago it had the mother of all "comfort-blankets" whipped away out of its small trembling hands. "Its fundamentals"? you ask. I have no idea. I would not know a spreadsheet from a bed sheet. But I know the Royal Mail. A lumbering old rickety cart it may well be at the present moment...but, and it is not a big "but", the Royal Mail will, in a relatively short time -- get it right!! And right or wrong, those are my thoughts, in a nutshell, on the Royal Mail. Its financials? Okay: a hell of a lot of investment required to totally restructure its stone-age processing methods. A five year plan? Yes...most certainly; but I would also have to say -- a very good plan!! P.s And plenty more to come to go hand in hand with that "Five Year Plan".