Member Info for Scampthedog

Well...tomorrow is the day. When the markets reopen tomorrow there may well be (me being one of them I may well add) a lot of very upset people on this forum all bemoaning the fall in the s.p yet again. In my mind Pullinger's statement concerning the CWU's dissatisfaction at lack of progress in talks with RMG was deliberately and insidiously timed to directly and adversely impact upon the company's current stock value and thus drive it back downwards once more. A really cynical piece of shameful skulduggery!! Don't be surprised it the shorts increase once again and the s.p dives back down south...and just as things were really starting to look very rosy. Well done the CWU!!

When this lot are finally, and deservedly one might add, put out of business what becomes of all that so called unique engineering and intellectual property? I mean...is it just up for grabs?

You two must be living in Cloud-cuckoo-land if you truly believe any of that junk you have just espoused.

Or p1ssing up his leg.

I guess there is really not much to add.

Well, well, well...well I never. I have been consistently warning of the possible threat from a disgruntled CWU concerning how this extra hour, being taken out of the working week, was to be implemented: various new shift patterns perhaps...obviously linked to higher productivity, plus other new working practices and newly acquired automation (all my previous posts going back several months to see as proof). And what did I get for voicing my views? Nothing but sarcastic abuse from several people. And who has been the worst at spilling his vitriol? Why -- Mr Chief Ramper himself -- Redceo!! You have'nt been right yet, mate, about anything concerning the internal politics and fragile relationships that exist between RMG and the CWU...in fact you don't have a clue: just like a lot of other self-confessed experts on here. And if that strike does come -- even a share price of anything above 1.80 would seem highly unlikely!!

Don't bash, AJamesW? Thats strange. I do seem to recall you were one of the many vigorously bashing me when, several weeks ago, I suggested this had some parallels with another Georgian company; I also suggested the price may drop somewhat...and here we are. And whats more...without that news -- it will keep on falling! Have a nice day. P.s Still holding here...but at least I am acting like the cheif ramper.

You make some legitimate points RoyAIMail...I would not necessarily greatly disagree in the main -- although I would argue that you still have to offset a lot of that against the cost of reorganization; and it is till unclear, and still not yet resolved (due to the relevant laws not yet in place) just how it is all going to pan out with the pension.
As for your question JBTHISTLE...several points: taking for example Warrington. Yes they are intended to be, primarily, parcel hubs...but not just parcel hubs alone. Warrington, I know for a fact, will not only be dealing with tracked mail but also 2nd class parcels and mail order returns; to that you can also add international letters and parcels...and more than likely a certain amount of first class mail besides. Will it be an inconvenience if it does not open on time? You bet your sweet boots it will! I am led to believe that they may well have to extend the lease on the present North West Distribution Centre...just to cover themselves in case pf delay: obviously -- not ideal! This would then necessitate the paying of rent on two buildings not just one. There are many reasons they will want that hub fully operational by the end of October...and the most important reason? Efficiency!!

After conceding that the new hubs will most likely not be fully operational until the end of October RoyAIMail (obviously RMG desperately needs them fully operational before the official period of "Pressure" starts) why would you make the bold statement that this years November figures will be much better than previous? Is this based on facts that you are privy to due to your job (working for Royal mail I assume?) or a hunch perhaps? Or is it something that you are hearing from a friend or acquaintance who themselves, or someone they might know, work for the Royal Mail? You do seem to be so very certain of yourself.

Well, come Monday, all set for a little excitement over the next couple of days...perhaps the s.p creeping back up to 2.30? Will be interesting to see what the s.p settles back down to after it goes ex-dividend. My guess would be around 2.08 - 2.10...then a slow recovery over the following 4 or 5 weeks. The November figures won't be anything to shout about (therefore I would anticipate another dip sometime in September) in my humble opinion: far too early for any reorganization and the new hubs to have any noticeable effect. It is all going to hinge on Christmas...it always does, but this one is going to be doubly important. By then the new hubs will be in full swing; hopefully this will herald the start of a progressive turnaround. January is going to be make or break time...certainly for the short-term future I would think.

I really would'nt worry too much, TonyBoy...none of us lose unless we actually sell. To Hell with it, If it falls further I might even consider buying a few more!

I might add: that this is exactly how I see it; and despite what the self-elected chief ramper (Redceo) might think to the contrary: exactly how I have been writing it for the past few months or so.

The "Motley Fool" have just uploaded an article endorsing the tentative buying of Royal Mail shares. It makes interesting reading; it does advise caution...but in a rather positive fashion. Don't know if I can copy and paste on here? but hopefully two of the more cautionary paragraphs below.

What could go wrong?
As I discussed recently, Royal Mail’s UK-wide infrastructure and large, unionised workforce mean its cost base is larger and less flexible than most of the courier firms it competes with. Back’s challenge is to turn the group’s large-scale and dense UK footprint into a competitive advantage. I’ve always believed this should be possible, but it’s unlikely to be easy or cheap.

My verdict
In my view, there are two main areas of risk for shareholders. The first is it will prove difficult to gain employee support for changes to working practices and wider restructuring. The second is that Back’s changes may succeed operationally, but could still fail to lift profit margins to a level where shareholders can enjoy reliable returns.

The rest is well worth a read -- in the whole it is all rather positive!!

£2.20 tested -- and not found wanting! This does indeed make for cheerful viewing.

Interesting. Seems to be testing 2.20. Lets us all hope so!

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Time to stir I think...yawwnnnnnnn -- ahhhhhhh!! Now then...letttsss seeeee? - Nope! not time yet. If this drops below 11.40...then all the way down to 8p methinks.

Trust me, gentlemen, the old grey sla...errr...I mean -- old Greylag, is a long term holder. Being old and tired, twenty years of age is ancient for a Greylag, she gets a little disorientated now and again: she often mistakes any period of unsettled weather as the first sign of winter...and immediately heads south -- and who can blame her! Mind you she has never been a particularly good flyer...being burdened with too much excessive baggage does'nt help; but, with a lot of excited honking, eventually, and after wildly thrashing about, she will, sometimes, manage to take off...albeit not always in the right direction it has to be said. Laugh? Well if I was'nt sat here penning all this dribble, lads...I would more than likely cry. As for what I think of IQE? "A company a long time in the making whom has stood ready in the wings for twenty years waiting for a cue that might never come"; and, I might add...might never come at that. Just because IQE has everything in place to accommodate any massive upswing in the perceived demands involving 5G does not necessarily mean IQE is going to get a big share of it. The oft repeated popular mantra is the same old mantra that is repeatedly thrown out time and time again involving any so called world leader in any industry: "the entry bar is so very high -- so therefore prohibits many new interested parties from thinking of participating". Rubbish!!!! If IQE are not careful they will end up like the Hare: the old Greylag goose beaten to the finishing post by a young vigorous tortoise!! Honk!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! P.s Why do I hold here? Because just like you, you who are reading this, I very much see the rationale in all of it. But life is not always about logic is it.

I applaud you lads for your enthusiasm...but I would temper against being overly ambitious in your expectations. I think it advisable to moderate your forecasts somewhat. That is -- until the ex-dividend date has come and gone. Just today's thought.

I would strongly suggest, for us investors at any rate, that it has actually had a rather positive, solidifying effect, nuri. They, the traders, always get to hear the little whispers before us (the little guys) first; guess thats why the further reduction in shares out on loan over the last day or two.