Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Avocet123 - I disagree, it may well have only gone sideways in the past but UK is currently experiencing a mini seismic event. VOD is going into this in a strong position and is set up to have a superb 2025 year ahead too👍 the tranches I'm buying up at 67-69p should book a decent profit in due course 😎

You dismiss Revenues as unimportant... which they're most certainly not for CPI; do so at ones peril.

Yes, profit is seriously vital but if allowing revenues to fall too far & too fast we'll then CPI can become insolvent in a heartbeat.

Today likely the day JDW properly gives up the fight to hold at the 595-600p area.

Fully expecting this stock to lurch downwards at long last & pick up resistance around the 570p-580p area, possibly drifting a little lower than that even.

Oof, big drop over in USA on the back of the Fed rate cut... given BoE looks set to hold today then a big retreat for all FTSE indices looks inevitable; lots of pain on the way particularly overdue for some companies which are in a bad state of affairs. Gilts market could be very lively with big upward move on yields.

However, if VOD drops I shall be buying because altnets and BT are in a poor state... latest BT results were bad but conversely VOD performance was rather decent.

Yes, there is the small issue of the franchise legal case (max liability 120mil apparently) but for BT they've potential liability of £1.3bn on Patourel legal case currently in flight.

On buybacks for VOD; a lower SP means the action nets more shares for the cash and... retail sales for BT were falling going into this festive period, whereas for VOD sales were rising, VOD should net decent festive sales in comparison to BT.

Merger with 3, lots of scalability operating cost savings coming VOD's way too. So I shall be being brave, if others are being fearful, on this stock - great buying opportunities here IMO - DYOR

Oof, big drop over in USA on the back of the Fed rate BoE set to hold today... possibly a big retreat for all FTSE indice; pain on the way for BT SP IMO as it underperformed at the latest results...

CMA case still outstanding, market share falling, altnets on the brink some which may fail to pay BT what they're owed too. Then there's the slow festive sales likely to hit BT on the retail side too.

130p is incoming IMO - DYOR

Oof, big drop over in USA on the back of the Fed rate cut... given BoE looks set to hold today then a big retreat for all FTSE indices looks inevitable; lots of pain on the way particularly overdue for some companies which are in a bad state of affairs. Gilts market could be very lively with big upward move on yields hitting debtors with a body blow.

£2.38bn Adjusted Revenue is my new 2024 Full Year CPI forecast.

I've smashed figs together in a number of different ways; arriving at 90.2% of the 2023 Full Year Adjusted Revenue - a punishing drop. I'm taking the view they'll go right to the wire on their quote "Revenue is expected to be high single-digits lower in 2024" but...

I don't see them breaching into the low double digit figs, as I think there's something they've saved in the back pocket somewhere to prevent that from occurring; likely upside surprise to be found in the 'Pension Solutions and Regulated Services' part of the business which may make better than anticipated performance contributions towards the revenue pot. All of the Capita One sales revenue will be consumed IMO.

On 6 Sep 2024 13:45 I said the following👇:

IMO the £2.5b figure is not achievable for CPI unless they sell something else because they only booked £1.2bn for H1 - there's £180m for sale of Capita One but AH was clear that it's earmarked for cost cutting and investment into AI... so £180m for a business the size of capita to invest into cuts and AI investment is a fair wedge but will prove easily spent.

Additionally the prognosis for H2 is for further falls yet... AH has already said this because that's why there is cost cutting going on. Plus there's no longer any revenues coming from Capita One, so the rest of the business now has to make up that shortfall too.

Lets hypothetically say H2 books £1.1bn, add that to the £1.2 and assume all of the Capita One money gets spent or maybe there is around £40m leftover... you're looking at a figure around about £2.34m give or take a few tens of millions. So yep, I reckon £2.5bn is not an achievable figure.

All IMO and DYOR.

-

I wanted to add further context to how I derived the forecast (especially varying ways I tried to cut the figs):

CPI had stated "Expect a low to mid-single digit percentage adjusted revenue reduction" but... simultaneously also published HY adjusted revenues of £1.2bn (non-adjusted still £1.2bn, as only £35m higher - I used adjusted revenue figs; as I knew my rough forecasted calcs would have a margin of error anyway). They also published these lines:

"Adjusted revenue1 decreased by 9% to £1,201.5m (H1 2023: £1,324.4m) reflecting the non-repeat of one-off benefits in H1 2023 in Experience and the impact of previously announced contract losses" and "£50m cost associated with cost reduction programme"

So halfway through it was known CPI could not match 2023 revenues... i.e hitting £2.81bn (or £2.64bn adjusted) was impossible. In fairness CPI never claimed they could do.

I took the £1.2bn for H1 known... then I took 5% off that figure i.e. £1.14bn, and just smashed it together with the £1.2bn to derive the full year i.e. £2.34bn... the big unknown was what CPI would do with the Capita One sales cash; in terms of booking some of the gain? Debt paydowns? or used for day 2 day Ops spend? but... whichever way I cut figures I arrived at roughly the same ballpark figures of £2.34bn (above I cut it assuming a mix of spend + cash contribution towards revenue - in the main though; it mattered little to the end forecast).

I considered points some had made that maybe CPI could do a little better in H2 than they had in H1 but... each time hypothesised I came to the same conclusion: macros stacked too high against the business... Being generous considering peoples feelings I settled on £2.4bn as a balanced revenue figure; it's what I quoted from time to time. I definitely felt that was the best reasonable (but possible) case scenario for Revenue.

The quote I had shared for all to view👇

Valid point I had raised which you can read below in the post dated: 23 Sep 2024 12:07 👇

Seems likely the drop in Contract Win rate is a significant contributor for Revenue shortfalls but it's certainly not the only factor causing pain for CPI...

I welcome the apology JG68. Thanks for doing that, and I'll be mindful to tone down my prose accordingly.

Well... I was not wrong on this👇🤷

Cornflakes 🐔🥣 - I challenge you to quote back something I've conveyed which has been 'nasty'. Because other than mocking jovially, with blatant humour, I've said nothing of the sort and I've certainly never posted anything which remotely wishes physical harm to someone on here (which others have done to me).

Yes, I mocked those saying CPI could achieve £1 a share, now resoundingly proven to be about as close to impossible as it gets.

I did not read the guidance wrong. Yes, I extrapolated that due to poor wider macroeconomics then revenues might fall below £2.4bn but I did admit that was less likely (though not impossible by any means) and so I landed at the £2.4bn figure, broadly confirmed as likely by this latest statement (albeit we'll still not know for certain until March 2025).

Cornflakes 🐔🥣 - Thanks for confirming you do not condone what JG said. At least someone on here has an ounce of decency.

Look repeatedly I explained on here I'd found very concerning items within the CPI financials, and I understand my views were unpopular for many to read through. However, I repeatedly tried to highlight such matters via direct quotations from reliable sources (CPI themselves) with accompanying explanations of my take on what that meant for LTH's...

The torrent of abuse I received in response was overwhelming and made me even more determined to press the points I was making. Yes, I have mocked, in a jovial fashion, those who could not accept facts contained within the financial data and even political leanings of some on here too. I've never directly abused or insulted anyone on here though, and I never would do.

Daltry... Questions for you:

Do you think it's acceptable JG68 said the following?:

"Exactly, Aim has humility, Savage is a narcissist horrible individual, hopefully will be incapacitated in some way , I hate saying it but that individual deserves whatever is coming their way."

daltry - is it the case you too hope I "will be incapacitated in some way"?

JG68 - It's interesting observation how your reply to Hexam is markedly different to the vile language you've directed towards me. Especially so when in reality I've been pointing out the same/similar issues with CPI, as Hexam has done so below, (albeit using different prose in an attempt to explain them). Yes, Hexam benefits from having the latest set of results whereas all I previously had to go on was the HY results but the attitude some on here have had towards me has been completely unjustified.

Question is, will anyone have the guts to admit that and make an apology?

Hexam - The posts & discussions you were engaged with on the TUI page were all most welcome, like Stupmy I too respect and read the content you post which certainly aided me; to discuss & explore all the various elements in play. In the end I sold off my entire holdings on 2nd Jan 2024 for approx. 20% profit. I only didn't buy back into TUI due to the delisting, and because I saw other opportunities elsewhere; like BT which I also booked about 20% profit from too this year (no longer holding this stock either).

Little different to how many bought into the nonsense about £350million for the NHS if they voted Leave...

I don't blame those who find themselves duped by a trickster/fraudster... I blame the trisksters/fraudsters themselves for having lied to the people who put their trust in them.

Nope I'm not talking about today's ONS figures...

I mean the over inflation of CPI's future prospects! AH & the board approved yesterday's RNS which apparently claims there's £5bn coming CPI's way from AI in the pipeline 🤔 💭

Well believe that and you may just believe the earth 🌎 is flat or pigs 🐖 can fly?!

I previously said on here I saw full year 2024 revenues landing in around the £2.4bn area (when I made that forecast it should have been difficult for CPI to achieve a figure so lowly). Sadly, there's literally nothing I've seen from yesterday's RNS which changes my opinion.

I still believe for CPI things are still getting worse every passing day; downtrending macroeconomics are acting as a drag on their balance sheets & amplifying CPI's internal difficulties. I also think AH has the wrong strategy for the current macroeconomic situation. His focus should have centred on getting the basics right because how can demotivated staff who are operating poor quality ageing equipment be expected to pull a £5bn AI rabbit out from the hat?! The RNS contained complete nonsense with that AI claim, I don't buy it and I don't think the market will buy it either!

I now view CPI as being in serious danger of going to the wall 🧱 ... or more likely; the selling off of the few good bits of CPI will resume, as the Capita One cash runs out. AH will build upon his past legacy of breaking up a business to save the good parts; with the rest junked to the lowest bidder!

All IMO - DYOR

As stated before on here I'm not invested in CPI but I did consider making an investment into what I thought could have been a growth stock earlier on in 2024. Once I analysed the financial details I didn't like what I saw and so I shared my findings on here, many ridiculed me for having done so; when all I did was raise my legitimate concerns.

Definitely the most worrying part of the statement👇