Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

More drops on the way for the SP here IMO... too much overspeculation has happened on this stock, some who've overbought will find they're booking losses in the months ahead. Travel is the easiest spend to cut for those facing higher bills, higher debt repayments and higher mortgage/rent costs too.

A significant green light to short this sick puppy of a stock IMO!

Bailey & MPC will try to prop up the £ at the Feb rates decision but doing so will inflict brutal pain for uncompetitive businesses with weak cashflow & falling sales... The recession is going to claim some victims... Will CPI be one of them?

More drops for CPI on the way IMO because I cannot see how BoE will cut rates in Feb (I didn't think they would do btw). The falling £ just reinforces cuts being unlikely as falling £ is inflationary... Whilst stamp duty tax break is still in effect, and the April NMW rises on the way & not yet delivered, it'll be unlikely to move to cut bank interest rates.

Markets will not like this news, so Bailey will have to think up some waffle to deliver at the press conference after the painful decision... Any businesses with iffy cashflow like CPI are going to be broadsided brutally.

I reckon Reeves could sack him by the end of summer; a spring rates cut will not be enough to help people and businesses... UK economy will dive, and he'll have to explain why inflation (having overshot for yrs) is now significantly undershooting... given the signals were all there for the BoE to have acted to smooth both of upside + downside out far better than they have done.

Andrew Bailey is a failed BoE governor... However, he'll probably lead the BoE committee to hold Interest Rates in February (cutting rates while £ is falling will only amplify inflation effects, that'll be the argument made). I said on here a long while back I reckoned the US economy would be very strong, and conversely UK weak & entering recession territory which I explained would amplify damage to CPI's sales figures at the worst possible moment too.

AimMaster2018 - Do you reckon short holders will go large with increasing their shorts tomorrow? Or will they close positions ahead of the weekend, and then open up some large shorts from next week onwards instead?

GoCPI - Reeves had to raise taxes because the Tories grew the national debt to £2.7trillion... to maintain investor confidence it was necessary to raise taxation & demonstrate the nations debts will be serviced, via growing the income into the Treasury coffers. The 14yrs of Tory rule are what have damaged the UK economy, not the recently elected Labour Government - The recent GDP stalling was way Rishi had to call the General Election, as he knew he'd run out of road.

Or... speculators have overbought lots, and now that they're reducing their positions the true SP price is beginning to be found?

Several issues EZJ has here:

1. Too many shares in circulation.

2. Global instability.

3. UK in recession.

4. Running costs stubbornly remaining elevated; incl. key input costs like Kerosene, APD, pilot salaries + airport charges.

5. Hefty investment for new aircraft required now when demand hasn't yet returned to track above pre-covid times (given now 5yrs on and demand is still not quite level to pre-covid yet).

Jamesporky... all bluster and no brains!

BTW AimMaster2018... I appreciate the recognition you gave me, in terms of credibility of my analysis on the CPI financials. Cheers for that. I think it's sad some are on here content to try to dupe would be investors, in an attempt to prop up this stock and reduce their own losses for mistakes they've made with investing into this neglected & poorly performing business.

Could a takeover now be the most likely 'exit route out of trouble' for CPI? - If so, I doubt the Capita (aka Crapita) brand has much real value, which parts of CPI are valuable? and what price per share could be acceptable by investors to green light a bidder commencing a takeover of CPI?

I came on here looking for an investment stock however what I found in the financials is a company in deep fiscal trouble... then the H1 results & Dec trading update both landed on the RNS feed even worse so than my worst case scenario forecasts...

Ahead of the March release for the Full Year results (finance data summary upto 31st Dec) CPI has Jan and Feb to get through and yet we already know from the Dec TU that CPI faces a cash in hand crisis... lots can happen before the FY results are released.

So which path will AH & the board go for?

1. More asset fire sales to raise cash?

2. Merger with another company?

3. Accept a takeover bid from a rival company?

4. Tap shareholders for cash with a rights issue or other similar exercise?

5. Enter voluntary insolvency process, to let rivals buy the few remaining valuable parts of the business, with the rest being Jettisoned?

Incorrect, I have no interest in CPI. Precisely as stated, in mid 2024 I considered investing into CPI but I ruled it out as it's a cesspit of rot & decay. I invested into other stocks instead and later on (November) I commenced buying tranches of VOD which I'm still buying. As previously explained I don't short stocks as I'm not confident to take such risks. I prefer buying stocks which I view as a good investment... CPI failed to make the cut after making my due diligence checks.

Interesting GoCPI... I'll contemplate posting the screengrab you seek but no doubt you'll probably just move to the next line of calling the authenticity into question, so have to ponder if there's really any point.

Yep I recently started buying up VOD and in the summer I contemplated buying CPI which was what led me to post on here... till I realised the prospects for CPI were utterly terrible; my gripe is with those who incessantly ramp this stock and who when challenged by the evidence did nothing but spout nonsense conspiracy theories... when they don't get their way they throw their toys out the cot & get abusive.

I called the rampers out, and so far I've been proven remarkably correct when it comes to my take on the financials for CPI. I fully intend on standing my ground on this, as everything I've declared on here is transparent and as described.

Wednesday - Interesting numbers... also I haven't just repeated the same info, lots of new information about CPI being even worse position than post trading update emerged when it became apparent they're winding up their ltd aubsidary which handles the Gas Safe contract (up for renewal in March 2025)...

Bound to have more posts because I am one, the rampers are many...

Bobsto12 - given you're opting to counter my post with only vitriol, rather than with any genuine argument you might have as to why CPI should be seen positively, I can only assume you're simply angry with yourself for having put so much cash into a failing business? 🤷

I say this because I don't have any power to move the SP for CPI, I'm just pointing out why I think it will continue to be a very poor performing stock (using the evidence of the CPI financial results).

DARKBLUE - more conspiracy theories... folk like you will apparently say anything to avoid facing the reality of CPI buckling under the sheer weight of financial strain upon it.

For record I've only ever posted on this site as SavageKeyboardR.

Only one of either more asset fire sales, a takeover bid, a merger deal or a cash raising exercise can keep the wheels turning here.

Or... if there's no scope for one the above then insolvency appears an inevitability.

"wholly stupid and pointless comments"

Q. Who warned about the dreadful Dec trading update?

A. SavageKeyboardR

Q. Who said revenues would fall by more than CPI themselves had forecast?

A. SavageKeyboardR

Q. Who said sales would plummet worse than anticipated by CPI?

A. SavageKeyboardR

Q. Who said the UK macroeconomic situation was declining fast, towards recession, which would directly harm CPI?

A. SavageKeyboardR

Q. Who said CPI would spend the majority of the Capita One sale proceeds by the current Year End?

A. SavageKeyboardR

👆For all the above I've been correct in my assessment of the situation in hand for CPI

As for my investment into VOD... yep, I commenced buying in Nov... still early days and I'm still buying up more tranches. I'll let you know on here how much profit I make 😎 - although I plan on hoarding the majority of what I'm buying up with VOD for the very long term regular reward.

I still haven't made any losses on my investments since Dec 2022 and I don't trade CFD BTW... I've always directly purchased the stocks via HL Fund & Share Account.

DARKBLUE - incorrect, I'm not underwater on VOD as my average SP is 68p.

🤣🤣 - unsurprising to see some folks attempting to shut down discussions because all they want to peddle is speculation of CPI becoming £1 a share on the so called amazing turnaround AH is working on...

When reality for CPI is:

Falling revenues⬇️

Plummeting sales volumes⬇️

Overspending on cost cutting rounds⚠️

Outdated IT equipment & software systems🦕

Rapid spend of proceeds from sale of Capita One⚠️

Urgent need for cash to stave off insolvency☣️

Recession/stagnation of UK macro economy ↔️

Article here:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/dec/30/number-of-pubs-in-england-and-wales-falls-below-39000-for-first-time

Fair play Carrington...

However, I maintain my view of the SP falling towards 570-590p - I think permanently lower footfall, the additional NIC'S & NMW costs will limit profitability.

This article is an interesting one and particularly so in light that bank interesting rates remain stubbornly high... property prices are stagnating and even falling in some areas now which will limit homeowner & business borrowing options.