Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

UK macroeconomic data out on Mon + Tues looks unlikely to bring about any post festive season joy to the markets IMO... UK PMI, House price and Retail sales data releases including Next with a trading update (one to watch IMO for signs of slowing UK economy).

Later on in the week come two big name UK food retailers with trading updates (Thurs)... M&S + Tesco (again look out for signals of shoppers cutting back). Sainsbury's show their cards Friday which could lock in or buck any trends witnessed by those the day prior.

As for CPI well... the majority will return to work full of gusto?! What little joy they have for their CPI role may well evaporate once AH slaps them in the face with more cutting rounds and salaries of some pickpocketed all in the name of austerity; for the greater good!

Shorters should be setup for a pretty decent work, as sentiment turns from bad... to worse.

All IMO - DYOR.

Drops for start-mid week... ending on 10th though at 71.8p

"He, like the management, has bought a considerable 6 figure, ‘skin in the game’"

In which case many sleepless nights and possibility of sheer panic looks set to dominate their first quarter of 2025 then 😬

Also the Market Cap is now closer to £235mil...

Agree AimMaster2018... FY 24 results IMO likely to show the following:

8.5-11.4% revenue reduction... (Hexam recently pointed out on there there's potential for upto 15% revenue fall, and whilst I don't believe it'll end up being that extreme I cannot ignore they're a poster with a sound track record on their financial analysis - when I was invested in TUI Hexam was remarkably thorough on their financials).

Gas safe contract has possibility of going to a different provider, there's no hard evidence yet of this in the public domain but... CPI are apparently voluntarily winding up their LTD subsidary company which handles that contract and the sucker punch is a £100k fiscal loss set to hit the Capita Group balance sheet in the H1 2025 (doesn't look as though it'll be booked in the FY 24 results scheduled for release in early March as they're scheduled to wind it up in Feb 2025 i.e. after the cut off for FY 2024 results (31st Dec 2024).

Overspending... now in the TU it was acknowledged more had been spent on cost cutting more quickly than had originally been planned making this one a big unknown... we know there is Overspending but exactly by how much has a wide degree of possibility variance.

Ongoing spend on cost cutting has been acknowledged as being carried into 2025 FY... maybe the results released in March will indicate more details on exactly how much but I'm reckoning the figures will be increasing yet again.

Sales... we know they're on a downwards trend... will the FY results indicate any slowing or reaching a plateau? If the trend is still downwards then I fully expect a sharp sell off of CPI stock.

Cash... the biggest challenge now facing CPI IMO... the business is far too large & bloated to be supported by cash coming into the business treasury... the shortfall will need to be plugged by either borrowing or cash raising exercise; the potential for more asset fire sales is the bug unknown... what is clear is CPI cannot do nothing, that will not work as a strategy as insolvency would be imminently triggered. I personally don't think CPI can even make it to results day without first or perhaps simultaneously initiating a cash raising exercise.

It's dangerous times for CPI these coming weeks and lots depends on choices AH and the board takes in the weeks ahead. I don't see any scenario in which CPI can avoid a cash raising exercise and I don't see there being any positive upside fiscal surprise in the form of 'a rabbit in the hat trick'.

Simpiles and JO claiming AimMaster2018 is bullying them... LOL 😂😂

Sharing possible hypotheses & asking questions does not equal bullying.

Whenever things get tough Jamesporky reaches for the 'shut down this conversation lever'...

JO behaves like such a douchebag!

Thankfully, I've never worked for CPI.

Trisor - for record I was busy this afternoon/eneving & I do not report posts which have disagreements of opinion, as I think all should be able to read different views/opinions... I can only assume someone else on here complained, if you might have used any profane language? or perhaps if you said anything which contravenes rules of this site?

I've never given financial advice on here... what I have done is share facts, links to official guidance and statements issued by CPI which all others have access too and I've always stated the views are my opinions and my analysis... as well as explaining others should DYOR too.

It seems apparent you object to fiscal facts and can't handle it when someone has a different view to your own.

AdamWoodman - More misinformation... you rampers are absolutely full of it. We'll have to save your quote their "keep this share as it can’t go any lower". Foolish thing to say really but then again this board is full of fools.

I can't day trade as I use HL Fund & Share. I buy the stocks rather than paying for CFD trading. All stocks I've invested into I've held for between 1month-16months, JDW was one I barely held for a month and made 20% in that time so I opted to sell it, as that's a high yeild by anyone's standards!

As I've said before I don't short stocks and I cannot see how there is any prize to be had for buying into CPI. Shorters are the ones winning and that's for the foreseeable IMO too.

AimMaster2018 - what is your closing SP forecast for today?

Filtering the views of others just ensures an echo chamber, filled with nonsense prose about £1 a share for CPI...

I've put forward well evidenced information, from CPI and Companies House, and yet still conspiracy theorists deny the fiscal reality and instead peddle unsubstantiated nonsense. When those FY results land in March (and perhaps before if any more bad news emerges prior) then some ppl on here, especially loyal LTH's, are perhaps going to be utterly devastated.

All IMO - DYOR

Beo1 - Yes, I'm not disputing the method... I'm well aware the fund managers take your cash, charge you fees and they invest your cash with lots of other people into many global companies.

Whilst I'm sure some ppl are quite content with the returns they get passed back to them by the fund managers I'm just merely stating there are other ways to invest in stocks and do rather well too... It's subjective on personal preference.

For me, I don't have a diverse portfolio, by active choice but... I cut out paying the fund manager and pick the stocks myself; and I've done very well from it too.

The great thing about global markets is there are many ways to make money and anyone who advocates just one method is just plain incorrect. e.g. lots of short holders make vast sums of money... For me I don't short stocks at all - it's just not for me thanks but... Many people do very well from taking short positions and it's a legitimate way to make money

With the above in mind, you appear to be advocating investing into funds to make good money... and I am just simply saying there are other methods too :-)

Beo1 - BTW, where you said the following: "Not saying your portfolio isn't diversified but they are playing with billions and diversifying, for you to be has diversified you need a big bankroll or small investments."

For clarity: My portfolio is not diversified. However, despite not being diversified I've nonetheless been netting very healthy returns (10-22%) on my investments since Dec 2022. Yes, some ppl may enjoy reading articles which advocate having a safety net of diverse portfolios but... merely I'm conveying that it's definitely possible to do rather well on the markets without a diverse portfolio too. There's no hard stop rule which says those who have poorly diverse portfolios cannot also make money.

Beo1 - Are you saying that if the fund managers, who you pay a fee to, invest your money and end up booking losses then there won't be a negative impact for you and other investors?

Correct that I net all the rewards myself and therefore I also net all the risks too. However, I avoid paying fund manager fees too.

79p

AimMaster... JD like other high street retailers definitely feeling the pain from poor Christmas sales... The only way they claw their SP back upwards is by closing many stores... so yep sub 90p looks a certainty to me.

Porky... Labour Gov was forced to raise taxation as Tories failed to grow the economy... Reeves needed to boost Treasury coffers to service the mountain of debts which the Tories accumulated over their 14yrs. There were few options available and had Reeves not increased taxes then the markets would have demanded far higher borrowing rates to continue loaning to UK.

Even with the tax rises gilts have still increased, making UK's debts more expensive to service. So imagine what would have happened had Labour not increased taxes?! It'd have been another Liz Truss mini budget moment... but then maybe you quite liked Trussonomics?

Jamesporky - the UK's economic troubles were easily foreseeable, I even predicted on here with remarkable accuracy what would unfold... How did I know with a good degree of certainty? Well that's because the Tories had already fostered the conditions for economic trouble with their failed 14yrs in power finally coming to a head... they knew the economy was set to tank and it's precisely why they called the snap election, in order to leave the mess for the next Labour Government to clean up.

Robleo - With tracker funds there are additional annual costs, which go towards paying their fund managers to shuffle the cash around...

Why would I want those fund managers to take my money, and spend it on fancy cars... when I can choose the shares to invest in myself, buy them directly, and net all the rewards for myself too?

Trenners - The problem though is things are getting worse...

CPI stated in the TU they've mostly spent the proceeds from the Capita One sale, with only a bit (TBC) carrying forward into HY 25 financial period... CPI has also spent more on the cost cutting in 2024 (full figure TBC on FY 24 results, early March).

Sales volumes are continuing on downward trend, renewals down too. The pensions part of the business seemed to be fairing better and I now wonder if CPI could opt to sell this part of the business off? - After all AH is known for, and has a track record of breaking up businesses; arguably he's already doing so with Capita One, why stop there?

I cannot see any scenario in which the March FY 2024 results contain anything upside - CPI themselves initially issued guidance saying 'single to mid digit percentage fall for revenue' which they clarified in the TU would now be 'high single digit percentage fall for revenue' (which I correctly said would happen). So they themselves have already downgraded the expectations (hence the SP fall following the TU which I said would happen too)...

Couple of weeks ago we learned CPI is voluntarily winding up (scheduled for 20th Feb 2025) the subsidiary (Capita Gas Registration and Ancillary Services Ltd) which handles the Gas Safe contract - The filings are openly available to view on Companies House, and what's more is there are official documents available to read on there which unequivocally prove there's a £100k loss 'to be transferred to the Capita Group' as part of the winding up process. So I cannot see how there's any 'good news' coming there.

Then there's very real potential/likelihood for overspending when it comes to the cost cutting activities and investments into AI too... Both will not deliver net cash benefits to the CPI coffers for a long while yet i.e. it's currently costing CPI much more to continue with this than CPI is netting through improved income levels.

The one thing investors can be certain of right now IMO - each share purchased over the last year and even today very likely means owning more shares in what will be a smaller business, with lower revenues in 12 months time and likely beyond that too. No longer will the Capita One revenues be adding to the coffers either, that was a 'good' component of the business; which AH has now sold off so... it won't any longer contribute cash into CPI's coffers. i.e. already LTH's own a smaller business with lower revenues. Capita themselves have recognised this in their statements saying they reckon revenues will be flat for 2025... However, I reckon they'll be negative yet again because now the wider UK and some parts of the global economy are heading into recession.

All IMO - DYOR.

AdamWoodman - If CPI is as you claim 'a solid medium / long term investment' then how do you explain CPI's 50% revenue drop (from £5.44bn in 2015 to £2.4bn 2024 FY (est.) to LTH's (and the respective fall for the SP & Market Cap)?