Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Like going to a supermarket on Christmas Eve... only to find there are only two checkouts open 🤷

"Airport packed like a can of tuna" - except that passenger numbers are still not yet above pre-covid levels, so they have to be feeling like busy places because of inefficiencies.

PRK1 - that's not true what you say about Labour there. The manifest clearly does have environmental mission statement and it's here: https://labour.org.uk/change/make-britain-a-clean-energy-superpower/

Speaking of energy and environment... One good bit of BT's update was the content about significant power savings of the new FTTP and 5G networks over the old infrastucture.

Interesting looking back at my posts here below:

For record I shared my view of a FTSE correction on the BT board for all to see.

Fortunately I saw this drop coming. Hence why I sold my large BT stake in Nov and other stocks too - that way having lots of cash is allowing me to take advantage :-) - It was so obvious UK was going to get pummelled, as the Tories left a huge mess and Labour even said 'things will get worse before they get better' - BoE clearly couldn't cut rates to give support what with inflation so stubbornly high... many will say this wasn't foreseeable but I whole heartedly disagree.

Still I shall be mopping up more VOD with my cash holdings :-)

Bigtimebilly - Utter nonsense from billy the Liz Truss supporter. Labour were handed the awful inheritance of £2.7trillion accumulated national debt and decayed public assets; due to 14yrs of Tory chaos & economic mismanagement. Rishi knew he couldn't win the election because he knew the financial crunch would coincide with the election... so he called a snap election to hand the whole mess over to Labour and allow his fellow Tories to place all the blame on that incoming Labour Government.

As for BT... definitely heading down to towards 130p now... more drops on the way next week easily.

WiseAfterTheFact - IAG is the exception due to the share buybacks... easily seen when you look at the date the buybacks commenced and then see what has happened to the SP since that date

Also Scotty277 - the exact number of years and months post covid... well it's subjective depending on when ppl personally re-commenced travelling... My central point here is numbers need to be much much higher than they've been and IMO overspeculation and overconfidence has allowed the SP to rise much above where it should have been.

Scotty277 - Look by all means have a rant because I've said something you don't like or agree with. I'm just sharing my take in a very frank and honest way. Only time will tell if I prove to be correct or not? - It's just my honest view.

Sure, given you're presumably invested heavily what I've said is probably offensive but... It's nonetheless my view. So throw whatever vitriol you want at me because the only thing which matters ultimately is the upcoming EZJ results and what happens to the SP on the back of the emerging news in the coming weeks ahead.

Scotty277 - the point i'm really trying to make is the bounce back should have been far, far bigger than it has been. People have had the feeling it's a boomtime because the trains, airports, airlines have all become a bit more chaotic when handling numbers which are not actually greater than pre-covid times. Which I make the case has caused some to over speculate, rather than looking properly into the numbers and the financials.

Stupmy will be aware that I made this case before, as we had many discussions on various bits of data when invested in TUI.

EZJ IMO is likely to keep on falling down to ~440-450p and I think it's possible results may end up being a negative surprise for LTH's because even if they show profitable sales, I just don't think the numbers will be there when ppl start cutting back with UK in recession when the GDP figs come out next week and the BoE interest rate hold is delivered in February too (plus the elevated input costs yet again due to more inflation despite the high rates).

Scotty277 - Sorry scotty we're 4yrs 7 months on from covid... I just rounded up that's all.

Stupmy - you might (or might not?) remember that back along when I sold out of TUI my primary reason for doing so was the disappointing numbers on their Dec 2023 results, and I shared my personal view/opinion that at that point in time, for proper sustainable growth to be likely over 0-3yrs that I believed those numbers needed to have been tangibly higher... and they just were not.

When the other airliners published their results it was clear EZJ stole the lunch of Ryanair and possibly some of Jet2's scooby snacks too. So they did better than I had anticipated through 2024... but... even with EZJ's numbers stealing some extra portions from others they still fell short of my expectations. All the airliners should have been seeing greater levels of growth than they have done.

Now you may well disagree with my opinion here but... for me as non invested but looking objectively at the situation it's very frankly my honest take.

Stupmy - For EZJ there's too many shares in circulation. Overspeculation drove the SP too high when EZJ's input costs had already gone up significantly, and now are set to go even higher. I just don't think airliners more generally speaking have recovered so much as many think/perceive... numbers still below pre-covid levels and yet we're now 5yrs on from covid when for true growth those numbers should be higher already by now.

EZJ & other airliners appear very busy, and for when those major events or for popular destinations then indeed they are busy but... I wonder if many airliners incl EZJ have lost the iron grip on efficiently operating?

RiskReepReward - I did warn thee... bigger drops incoming next week IMO

Andymlloyd - "why (if you believe this is a Strong Sell) you are on this board?" - Good question padawan...

Well It's because I began trading in Dec 2022 having done much research on stocks/trends etc over many years (I didn't want to go & take the plunge; only to go and lose all my money through inexperience!)... So... I've been testing my hypothesis/analysing methods; and to do that effectively I needed to share those views with others... to see if they hold true against that test, later on down the line.

I might be interested in buying EZJ at some point in time (I was previously invested into TUI - March 2023 until 2nd Jan 2024 - and I booked ~20% profits on selling all my holdings over there). I've invested into other stocks - JDW, BT, CURY and more - having also booked healthy profits on those trades too. So far I've done well and have not booked any losses yet. I'm not naïve to the fact at some point I will book a loss.

avocet123 - yes EZJ did rise through the 4 and 5 hundreds all the while I was deramping it, this is true. I had high confidence it would drop significantly, though low confidence on when and so I chose not to invest into it. Instead I made really good money from BT as UBS had rated it at £0.90p, a broker rating which I heavily bet long and against UBS on and I won big.

beatrootjuice - IAG is rising because of their share buybacks, giving them protection against the current broad based market drop, plus people exiting other stocks are buying it amplifying the rise - it looks like a bubble forming over there on IAG IMO. Check out the date on which the buybacks commenced on... and then look at the SP thereafter ;-)

Avocet123 - It's interesting observing how you have temper tantrums, much like a toddler & throwing your toys out the cot & getting rather rude & shouty. Looking at your posts you never offer any insightful analysis, and it's unsurprising you find yourself underwater for many stocks you're invested in as a result (because you lack ability to properly analyse and you appear ruled by emotion instead).

It's a fact I've not booked any losses, - VOD average for me is ~68p atm so it's sitting a minor smidge in the red... However, I only began investing into VOD Dec 24 and so I'd not expect gains by now anyway and what's more I'm still in the process of accumulating having invested just around about 20% of the cash I eventually envisage investing into VOD, so there's a long way to go yet for me.

What're your SP average Avocet123?

For example... In latest TU narrative was:

"we expect a broadly flat revenue performance in 2025."

The problem is that's just highly unlikely to be the case, and I reckon if they can even manage to limp and still be in business in their current form by FY 2025 then when those revenue figs land I think they'll be far more likely to be around £1.85bn.

For FY 2024 I estimate revenue only achieving around £2.38bn, and that's even with help of the Capita One sale doing some heavy lifting for CPI).

To keep revenue flat for FY2025 and again hit the same £2.38bn is just not realistic!

Lowering/ eliminating debt all well and good except there's a massive problem for CPI...

Its income is falling quicker than it's ability to downsize, thus putting it at grave risk of insolvency and that's the central issue - it's all well meaning having a plan to deliver cost savings to make it profitable in future... Except when that future arrives it's still not proving profitable because the income has continued falling well beyond what's envisaged.

So I don't accept the turnaround plan is working for CPI and it seems neither does the market either!

JG68 - That's analogy you use is not correct...

CPI's assets are falling in value fast, some have now been sold off already. So the house you think is worth £500k with the £100k mortgage is now much more like having a £100k mortgage when the house is now worth just £60k.