Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Trisor: Half Year 2024 Result link here: https://www.capita.com/news/capita-plc-half-year-results-2024

Yes, I've read them many times - usually to successfully prove you're in fact talking utter nonsense and this time is yet again no different because the only place where 95 appears in this document is as part of the phone number for the CPI communications department on the right hand side of the webpage.

Trisor - I just searched for 95%... it's not present in that piece of text you've pasted 🤷

You do realise with each post you make where it fails to stand up to scrutiny you just further damage your credibility?

Everything I've shared on here I've provided the hard evidence for in the CPI results and TU.

Sure Trisor... Following line in the TU:

"Expect a free cash outflow2 of £120m-£140m in 2024 as a result of lower revenues"

Link here: https://www.capita.co.uk/news/trading-and-operating-update-capita-plc

JO - I've never bought CPI stock... My wife did (on my advice actually lol) a long while back... she purchase in late Jan 2023 and then sold it a matter of a few weeks or so later when it hit above 40p. Massive profits for her lol but that's the only interaction either of us have ever had with CPI ever.

Trisor - You stated "Given that contract renewal rates were 95%"...

Please can you show me where in the results it states contract renewal rate is 95% please?

JG68 - I've not ever said CPI's value is £0...

Just because I've said CPI is at risk of becoming insolvent it doesn't equate to a £0 value... You do realise that a business with assets can still go insolvent don't you? It can happen when cashflow sharply drops meaning day 2 day suddenly it cannot pay bills due so a winding up order goes in against it... Now if the business can sell an asset quickly enough to satisfy that bill or debt then that averts the winding up order... but if it cannot then it tips into administration... everyone knows there's many routes out of administration (and sometimes if not then bankruptcy takes place)...

So the assumption you're making that I'm saying CPI is worth £0 is just not correct. What I am saying is CPI needs cash, and it needs it very fast IMO... the silence from AH and the board and lack of any RNS going into next week is wholly alarming though. I'd have expected to have seen some kind of countermeasures by this point and if they do not do something very soon then a point of crisis could occur very quickly, one which could well shock many LTH's.

100% agree AimMaster2018... was obviously going to tank this afternoon... Shorters will be piling in today because they won't want to miss the boat on the drop next week. The price movement this afternoon is critical in setting the direction and pace for Next week IMO. A close below 12.75p will be very bad for CPI next week.

Fair value is around 630p -

Wrong... fair value is what the market says it is on each given day. The market is never wrong.

Stupmy - thnx for confirming. seems our messages crossed their! Yes, I agree £ weaker could help EZJ a little but... the bigger issue at play here is the lack of proper recovery across the whole airliner sector.

All the airlines have a busy feel but when you look at the numbers compared to 2019 they're tracking a little below or might even break level... Which is a problem IMV because to deliver true net growth over 2019 levels not only do passenger numbers need to be higher but the revenues and profits need to be substantially higher due to the overall ~20-25% accumulated inflation (compounded YoY from 2019-2024) in cash terms... as input/operating costs/debt financing fees all combined amount to a lot of money.

Stupmy - I thought with EZJ being LSE listed it still has to convert everything to £ when it books it's figures as all other businesses LSE based do too. Sure they can write the reports in Euros/$ whatever they wish but don't all LSE listed stocks ultimately have their SP based on conversion to £? - I hold SSPG for example and they book into the coffers many global currencies but they're all converted to £ sterling for their LSE SP & market Cap valuations 🤷 - even if they may express it in reports in a different currency of their preference?

Shocker to you perhaps - to me I wholly anticipated it and said so repeatedly on here.

Sure... I take your point as it was 1.2115 at 2019 H2 and was 0.93 at H2 2024... I was extrapolating for the upcoming results (since they're on the horizon) I.e. anticipating a further small uplift to bring things in 2025 a little bit below beinv level with H2 2019...

Anyways the graph appears to prove the fundamental point I was making which is EZJ was speculatively overbought when considering putting that up against the fiscal reality here... hence the drop it's now experiencing.

SullysWorld - you think about conspiracy theories far too much...

I dont have an agenda here because I'm not invested. Yes I have cash in hand to invest if I wish too but I am interested in testing out my theories/hypotheses and as Stupmy can vouch for... I shared these views long ago when I was exiting my TUI holdings back in Jan 2024.

Seems SP now barely holding onto £5 here... down more next week IMO.

SBGED82 - thnx for sharing... well looking at that chart it essentially appears to show a near to flat line if drawing from 2019 ➡️ 2024... I'd make the case the real terms value will end up proving a little lower than 2019 simply due to £ falling relatively and from the high inflation and ongoing challenges with very high input costs too for EZJ.

SullysWorld - tell you what why don't you do some accounting of your own in a few weeks time... once the figures for EZJ are in the domain for all to see... and maybe you can share how much you speculatively lost? Perhaps because you didnt do your due diligence and you made too many wild assumptions & went in ballz deep?

What I do believe though is some LTH's may well be shell-shocked in weeks ahead when the realisation sets in that they have much longer yet to wait before seeing returns...

I'm definitely not saying EZJ is in any kind of trouble here BTW... imv holders will get their money back.

I'm not claiming anything other than to be saying the central reason, IMO, as to why the SP's for airliners shot up and are now heading back down again is that everyone perceived airliners as being out of the post covid slowdown and firmly into growth territory...

And I am saying they're still not yet in growth territory, they're still in recovery/stabilisation territory and so the SP rightly should not yet be going upwards meaningfully...

We'll only all know for sure when the results come out definitively putting passenger numbers and £ figures out there in the domain for all to thoroughly examine.

SullysWorld - then again maybe it's just 1 month ago? 🤷

Point is it doesn't matter because irrespectively EZJ and other airliners are carrying barely the same numbers as they were pre-covid only today they all now operate with higher costs (yes ticket prices higher too) but case in point being there has been zero tangible real terms growth...

Speculators pushed the SP up too high, and now it's falling because the business is not larger or making more money than pre-covid.

Xhita - in the same way that estate agents keep saying there's robust demand for property & high house prices...

Except we know that's not true now because in reality the high average house prices are being caused by a greater proportion of more highly priced new builds selling, thereby pushing the average upwards. I.e. just a quirk of statistics that if you shrink the volumes sold and simultaneously a greater % of that volume are new builds (which typically sell for a premium) then you will see a lift in the average.

SullysWorld - as stated... I just took the difference between 2020 and given were now in 2025 I simplified it to 5yrs... yes, recognise varying restrictions were in place (different rules for different countries, testing & mandatory isolation sometimes required post travel in hotels)... look the central point is that whether it's been 5yrs or 4yrs months, 4 yrs or even 3yrs months... the crucial matter is traveller numbers are as yet still below pre-covid figures... meaning values for Airliners will be held back as today there's far more inflation and higher costs all round to carry numbers which are little different to pre-covid.

True growth hasn't occurred yet and hence why with more shares in circulation the SP will be held back, especially now that UK is in recession (more gdp figs next week)...

Splitting hairs over the precise timings of relaxation on covid rules for travel isn't the central point here but the numbers and financials for passenger numbers in 2024 are the driver for SP either rising or falling and I'm saying it was easy to see why the EZJ SP became overcooked here.