Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Andymlloyd - broker ratings are nonsense... look what happened when UBS rated BT as £0.90p.. it rocketed to £1.49-£1.53 (I bought lots at prices between £1.04-£1.35 and made ~20% by betting against UBS's rating)...

Goldman are giving it a high rating on one hand and probably taking shorts out or selling with their other!

I'm still reckoning BT is likely to fall towards 130p however... which altnet do ppl reckon will be the first to fall victim of the ongoing economic squeeze?

Curious to know what people think is the most vulnerable altnet out there 🤔

LSELoser - I think you've no clue what you're talking about. It's really obvious to me on the outside as not invested in EZJ to see that it was overvalued, I said so several times on here and some dismissed my views... now they probably find themselves underwater with their investments.

Oil prices ⬆️

£ ⬇️

House prices falling/stagnating ↔️

Consumer sentiment coming under pressure ↔️↘️

Next week is going to be a tough week and sub £5 looks inevitable. I think EZJ could fall to £4.40-£4.50 and possibly even a little worse.

DARKBLUE - I think those ramping like yourself have sadly got this terribly, terribly wrong... there's been no strength here for the SP all week; worse than that no strength since 17th Dec when the TU was released.

It's 98-99% likely to be much worse next week. It's my view some LTH's (those in really deep with CPI stock) may well now find themselves in a situation of sheer financial peril.

What's most surprising is despite the consistent drop of SP since 17th Dec there's been literally no word from AH or the board either....

How will they respond? Surely they cannot sit and do nothing?

The contents of a newborns nappy are probably more valuable than all of CPI's shares when put together? 🤷

JO thanks for suggesting those three possibilities there, and interesting you've confirmed you are still invested so... that has to mean you're currently sitting on a loss there 😬

Strange you bought back into CPI, when previously you said rather loudly on here you'd sold out of CPI (on news of achievement awards having been given to some BAME staff). Very strange selling reason 🤷

In fairness out of those options you put forwards Option B appears the most plausible possible one to gain traction IMO, sound logic there on the USD strength giving the buyer a clear motive to make their move too.

Rock200 - your question make little to no sense at all... how on earth would I know if 'the Capita share price over a number weeks been manipulated down by the shorters' or not?

I'd suggest it's less likely short positions have pushed this stock down directly because there's only two large declared shorts.

What can be said for certain though is the markets currently view CPI in a negative light (simply because if the view was net positive then the SP would have increased and would not have fallen).

Market Cap now just £223mil...

£180million raised from the sale of Capita One and £100m is being spent by CPI through the following line contained within the trading update:

"the total cash cost of delivering the cost reduction targets will impact free cash flow by c.£50m in 2024 and up to £50m further in 2025"

Okay... so only £50m would hit the books this FY24 but the point remains CPI is spending cash furiously and it's cash incoming is falling very fast via the massive revenue shortfalls and sales figs. plummeting...

Given the declared short positions don't appear to have increased yet I'd say it's a worrying sign for the SP to be already down at 13.2p... suggests plenty of pain is incoming on the way here possibly tomorrow and definitely into next week when the GDP figs are shared along with multiple data releases of types of inflation measures...

More selling action inbound next week IMO here... enjoy the brief letup whilst it lasts as I did call this well some time ago. See my post in this thread below.

Rock200 - Here's some facts for you straight from CPI TU:

Full Year revenues expected to fall by high digit % ("For 2024, we expect to deliver a high-single digit adjusted revenue decline")

Adjusted revenue c.8% lower in eleven months end 30 Nov 2024.

Capita Experience adjusted revenue reduced 16.3% in the eleven months to 30 November 2024.

Contact Centre business declined 18.5%.

Regulated Services, inc closed book Life & Pensions, saw revenues decline 25.8%.

Total cash cost of delivering the cost reduction targets will impact free cash flow by c.£50m in 2024 and up to £50m further in 2025

Cevodniya - good question... It's because I opted to put my cash into BT instead of airlines, which netted me 20% profits. I had expected BT to have performed better; at the time I viewed it as being both a safer equity and with potential for healthy returns too. I sold off the majority over the space of a couple of weeks in mid-September. I continued to hold a small tranche until early Nov but then I decided to pivot, waited a couple of weeks before then commencing buying into VOD. I'm invested in some other stocks too and I'm still buying more VOD.

Wednesday - I already explained the joke about taking time off for the TU. Given the incessant ramping nonsense posted on here I felt compelled to offer my take on the CPI financials... Especially given the lucky escape I had from investing into this stock.

The rampers have provided no tangible evidence of why this share should be worth £1 a share... yet that's what some on here repeatedly keep saying it should be worth.

Take the title of this thread for instance "True worth of Capita is a lot higher"... problem is there's no valid data available as to why it should be worth a lot higher but... there is plenty of data for why it should be a low SP.

That's where this stock is headed next week IMO

Avocet123 - incorrect, since I sold up my Tui holdings (for ~20% profit) in Jan 2024 I've had a negative stance on travel/aviation as a mid-term investment because there's huge fiscal pain coming for UK (although timing was not foreseeable the inevitability has been). So quite simply I didn't wish to be caught holding UK listed airline stocks at the moment the fiscal crisis and passenger sharp cutbacks take place.

In reality airlines still haven't boomed, it's now 2025 and passenger numbers are still lower than pre-covid. The reason they haven't sprung back is underlying UK economic weakness which won't improve until something radical like re-joining the EU happens. Labour can try and steady things but they will really struggle to inject any growth until such a time as there's join up with EU to benefit from the fiscal power of the whole EU bloc (the reason UK joined the EU in the first place, because out there alone UK was not competitive enough or big enough to succeed).

Porsche1946 - Agree with you - the collapse was baked in by brexit, Tory overspending and their economic mismanagement too. Yep, difficult times ahead and although the brexit backers are likely to now feel some financial pain it's sadly the case they've dragged all the rest of us into the utter mess with them too.

Trisor - Oh my days Trisor....

Yes, I am making a calculated and well analysed & evidenced set of assumptions. That's precisely why I've always stated this is 'All IMO - DYOR'

Correct, I don't work for the company and I've no contacts who work for CPI either.

Yes, the poor GDP figs are baked in because the Tories kept extending the nations borrowings in order to create the illusion of growth.

LSELoser - The reason M&S busy? - many have become so accustomed to easy credit & rising house prices, so they're still trying to live as though that'll continue; which is all fine until that cheap credit begins to become prohibitively expensive and those who did not have the foresight, to trim their debts when they could do, then end up getting completely overwhelmed by the sheer scale of the money they've speculatively spent already.

Few anticipated BoE rates would still be so high today, the original narrative was they'd have begun to fall from around May 2024 down to about 4% in Dec 2024... whereas instead they fell far more slowly and are still at 4.75% today with no prospect of coming down soon either...

What's more is the stamp duty tax break runs out End March 25... and 20% more low rate mortgage deals will be ending in 2024 than in 2025... so many of those will be facing steep rises from ~2.74% to ~4.8-5.25%... meaning significantly more financial pain (also tax rises + fiscal drag) is still yet on the way.

So house prices near on certain to stagnate and they may even fall. Job losses are accumulating too, growth has fallen well short (was obviously going to be the case as the March Tory budget growth figs were cooked up to boiling well over)...

All the signals have been there that big trouble is on the horizon.

Trisor - Answers:

1. I've never at any point said that I "know Capita have spent all the £180m" - However, thorough analysis of CPI's financials means it's possible to deduce the following: CPI have said they spent more money on cost cutting and more quickly than they had originally planned to. Then there's the reduced income into the coffers from sales volumes having falling well short of expectations. Also the investment into AI which AH has bleated on and on about - because it's the primary thing which is maintaining the speculation interest in CPI; without that narrative CPI would be doing even worse. It would be very easy for most and if not all of that £180mil to have been spent by 31st Dec. If there are any crumbs leftover though it'll be easily spent in HY 25.

2. Next week the UK GDP figures along with CPI, RPI and PPI are released - they're highly likely to be bad news should serve to lock in the BoE holding rates at the Feb MPC (amplified by the £ having fallen significantly; and still falling more yet).

3. The UK economy is doing especially poorly due to the failed brexit; VoteLeave said it'd make UK more prosperous and it'd increase trade. However, that's not happened and UK now has to compete with the major global economies all on it's own. The reason UK joined the EU in the first place was it could not any longer compete with USA & Russia. In 2020's there's now also fast growing China, India + Asian economies to compete with. UK will always do better competing with those when being part of a bigger union because else we're just really small & shouty on our own (which the big economies can now ignore UK as no longer relevant).

Gotnorolex - the single share trades are very deliberate and happen a lot. It's when big scale traders are trying suss out the price point of buying gaps or it can be to identify big shorts I think too. Traders use the one-share trades to locate 'ping' hidden liquidity, with the intention of then placing their larger buy or sell order to take advantage of the gap.

IAG SP is benefiting from the share buybacks which commenced Nov 24 and are still running right through until Feb 2025... if you look at the chart you can clearly see the SP has been strongky supported by the pace of buybacks since 1st Nov.

Naturally EZJ doesn't have that because there are no buybacks running atm.