Member Info for sasa43

Hi dick - as a qualifying 'oldie' in this game (40+ years in the mkts) I endorse your overall analysis of the LTH v the trader.

I've found that the former usually make a significant sum if they've found a promising stock morphing into a serious money maker and they're patient in seeing it play out. I think we have one in the making here. The fundamentals have already changed dramatically post 30th Nov if you compare the reserves / income generation of 12 months ago with what we're generating now and are likely to increasingly achieve henceforth.

The two elements which are difficult to get a handle on are mkt sentiment and one's temperament in handling it.

Provided the company meets my criteria of strong management, good assets (ideally self financing) with a strong balance sheet (and we have this trio in evidence here) patience is all that's required, as you say.

Ergo, until these change, the rest is noise, imv - sasa.

Entirely endorse your sentiments, RELLIM...sasa.

Hi RELLIM - could well be, given there's nothing untoward that I can see.

Triggering a slew of 'stop losses' pitched too tightly under the running sp is an easy way for MMs to pick up stock.

Unless there's a negative RNS tomorrow to explain it, I'll be looking to increase my already overweight position here - value is value, after all...sasa.

Hi D220 - the drill time for Rowallan is fairly normal; 40 days Serica mentions after getting underway in a fortnight's time. It'll take a few days to evaluate what's down there, the quality / commerciality of it, hopefully and then the RNS will be issued - during the 1st qtr, they've stated.

There's usually some speculative interest prior to the results, of course but even if it's a 'damp squib', there's no cost to us, being a 'free carry' as we know, so any disappointment is likely to be short lived.

Beyond that, we'll be on a 50% revenue share from BKR this year and soon there should be an update on the rig being sought for the side - drilling of Rhum3 to maintain interest, quite apart from any progress on 'sweating' those assets being reported.

A busy year all round, really - sasa.

As the year draws to a close, most fund managers will be keen to tidy up their portfolios; ridding themselves of some of the losers from their schedules and bringing in a few of the years winners to replace them. Year end performance figures are crucial for comparison purposes when the tables are drawn up.

Such activity doesn't necessarily help the outcome but it enhances the appeal of what they're holding going forward as the New Year gets underway - it's called 'window dressing' and Serica's been a real winner this year - sasa.

Hi loads - Re: the 'global warming' / now called 'climate change' debate, I remain to be convinced that we can accurately forecast anything beyond twelve months. Planet Earth has been waxing and waning for over 4 billion years we're told and some scientists show concrete evidence that the world was generally warmer pre the Industrial revolution than now. Ergo, hindsight is more accurate than prediction.

When much of the climatologists' graphs are shown to be 'very selective' shall we say, in pointing to disaster to justify their forebodings, many of these agencies rely on government funding to keep them in being and need to proclaim alarmist findings to justify their existence. Call me a cynic, if you like but Mother Nature is more likely to get the planet back into equilibrium than puny mankind.

As for Attenborough, this 'moaning minnie' has been claiming extinction of most animal species for yonks, only later on to admit that there are more of whatever endangered species he had feared for alive after all, than he originally thought. Unless he'd accurately counted all of them beforehand, how can he possibly know the truth of it?

Re: Serica, gas is about the cleanest fuel we have right now and our production comprises some 85% gas. Oil and coal might be slowly on the way out but we need those energy sources, too, to power our factories / make machines, heat our homes / keep the lights on etc., and to manufacture just about everything, including hydrogen plants, so we're some way away from a sea change in the energy mix, I'd say... sasa.

Quite so, NewKOTB - and 50% higher the following year - not to be sniffed at! - sasa.

In a month's time, Serica's share of revenue generation increases to 50% in '19 and then to 60% in 2020 and if they're successful in squeezing more out of BKR (as they should be as their raison detre for buying into them in the first place) that's a useful income boost upcoming and tax - free, to boot, given the $145m tax losses they have in hand.

Ergo, my y/e sp of 150p odd looks very attainable to me - sasa.

Hi RELLIM - Roger that...

We are a bit in the dark currently (vis a vis the pre BKR bank balance) and where we are precisely now, as you say...

The figs. will clarify when next released in a few months time; meanwhile, there's Rowallan upcoming and then Rhum3 mid - year, I guess, to maintain interest, quite apart from any further acquisitions which the BoD might have in mind to augment the portfolio.

Now the BKR assets are to be carefully 'sweated', (increased output and extended longevity) I suppose we automatically become more appealing to a predator, given our more rounded profile henceforth but TCW would surely view any cheeky 'low ball' approach contemptuously - after all, we're only now getting going and already have the two major requisites to prosper - good management and robust finances - sasa.

Hi RELLIM - what's your take on todays RNS, btw?

Everything seems to be on track to me; some traders seem to be taking their s/t profits at the mo but that's all - sasa.

On the contrary, Shares T-B, Serica should be almost immune to any negative Brexit outcome; as Maverick says, the UK needs our gas (85% of output) and our oil, too, regardless.

There's a good and balanced article, imv, on even a 'crash out' Brexit in todays issue of MoneyWeek magazine (page 16) so suggest you get a copy or read it online, if available, to calm your nerves...sasa.

Yes, I noticed that, too, chinch; let's hope that's more than just a nice spike in production!

After a quick glance, everything seems to be on track - my only slight disappointment was the net cash receipt coming in at only some $50m to us. The notional 40% tax charge I hadn't allowed for (I'd assumed their substantial tax losses would have been used against it) so adding that back in, they would have received some $85m and with their $20m odd? cash in hand already, the $100m figure would have been applicable.

Now we have almost two years tax free income to look forward to as things stand so, overall, I'm happy to hold on for the justifiable further re-rate to be seen... Just my take, fwiw, right now - sasa.

Tend to agree with that, little trader; it might even have been a 'put through' by a big holder, perhaps, like the Hardy's for tax purposes / equalisation expedience. Even so, there was still 1m shs turnover outside of that (usefully up on the daily norm) and ahead of 'D' day tomorrow.

Hopefully, it will be a bountiful RNS to reinforce the meaningful re-rate the LTH's are looking for, so GLA - sasa.

Thanks GB33 - very useful overview, tying in nicely with the other attendees' views...sasa.

Hi RELLIM - wouldn't disagree with your expectation about Rhum3's contribution likely to commence by mid - year (BP's already done much of the side - entry ground work with Serica updating it, we're told) and they're now just looking to book a drill ship to get things underway.

Rowallan's 'spud' result is likely to generate additional interest as the 1 qtr next year approaches, so fingers crossed for that and likely further deals in redeploying their swollen coffers, as you say...sasa.

Hi ferrotty - thanks for relaying abbot's view on ADVFN re: his calcs on this years outcome and, more importantly, for 2019.

FWIW, his eps guesstimate of 43p is slightly more conservative than mine (50p) but I differ on what the pros. p/e for us should be relative to profitable producers in the O&G sector. Most AIM multiples involve a discount to the main mkt (for obvious reasons) but, against that, we're > 80% gas going forward and thus enjoying a premium over oil prices.

I reckon this should warrant a pp/e of at least twice the current one of 2.5 x - 3 x, so a 250p sp or more looks fully justified to me, quite apart from what Rowallan might or might not contribute, short term, plus the significance of any other developments, of course.

Ergo, the shs still offer much upside from here looking ahead - that's my take, anyway - sasa.

Thanks Noloss / cowboy and all the other attendees for your useful feedback; the consensus seems to be that 'slowly slowly, catchee monkey' but it will eventually be caught!

The PFS, when issued, should trigger a more positive level of sentiment, at least, especially if this years drilling outcome is added on as a supplementary item (promising road news, too, etc.,) but it will take a while yet to get going it seems.

That's nothing new for us; we're all used to waiting on here, after all but will it be worth it? Gotta be, imv - sasa.

Interesting comment in your post last Friday, Mommur; they might be considering lightening up on their huge holding after such a good run and locking in part of their substantial profit, to explain the latest softness in the sp...

Ergo, we might see an RNS on this shortly; any chunky disposal might have been done 'off market' to an Insto who appreciates the further potential. Other than that, all seems set to go to me...sasa.

Ok, duly noted, loads - good luck; hope it really pays off for you - sasa.

Hi Manuel - us old timers need to form an 'old crocs club' methinks. I know loads had a particularly tough time of it a while ago and you worse than me by the sound of it.

Glad you got on board this potential 'gravy train' when you did; hope loads does even now, as there seems a lot more to go for and if the Rowallan 'spud' getting underway next month proves successful, then the uptrend in the sp should simply accelerate; even if it disappoints, in the event, it's a free carry for us, so only a marginal disappointment, given all the other developments underway... sasa.