Member Info for sasa43

to the 2018 figs out next month and particularly the forecasts for this year. They should be quite something - sasa.

Agreed easyp, which should also lead to stimulating more orders from the RF.

With all the de-commissioning work going on, I'm surprised that there aren't more orders for POSGrip's superior, patented, equipment, especially where gas fields are concerned. Just as well the balance sheet is strong! - sasa.

With another US collaborative agreement - can't be bad, although the sp doesn't seem to notice,,,sasa.

Hi JA - thanks for confirming that the Serica website gas price is updated daily - that's good to know.

Yes, a modest proportion of their gas sales were hedged; mostly around 35p per therm and upwards when the BKR deal was agreed, if memory serves...sasa.

Hi Nickel - I've always found it difficult getting a reliable North Sea gas price (Brent gas, like oil, would be nice) so I tend to use the price shown on Serica's website nowadays - currently 52.25p per therm v your 48.6p you show.

Don't know whether SQZ's quote is updated daily but I guess yours is... sasa.

Hi Mommur - the full development of Rhum 3 has been technically difficult (getting at the other 60% of the known reservoir) according to an earlier ref. to it on the website.

BP had planned a 'side - drill' to get to it but that was shelved when Trump intensified the sanctions against Iran last year. Now the BKR deal has gone through, Serica is using all BP's prep. work to get this concluded and we should hear more on this soon.

Given the 40% present extraction rate accounts for about half the existing contribution from BKR as a whole, it goes without saying that any success with Rhum 3 will materially boost the 20k boepd from BKR that we're currently seeing.

Can't find the ref. to it on the website just now but it was there... sasa.

Hi NewKOTB - Well, as long as Serica continues its impressive transformation ('Black swans' notwithstanding) both our strategies should be realised (yours sooner than mine) and in these mkts, that will be quite something!

Good luck to all LTH's - sasa.

Hi NewKOTB - after some forty years in this game, I'm well aware of the relevance of those who run a business and those who own it. Was on the point of replying in greater detail when I see that dickupham has done that for me...

Can't add much to his commentary which I fully endorse; all I would say is that, if you're patient a bit longer (I've been in this for many years now) you should see a much higher valuation than £2 + over time, they way things are now shaping up. Good luck with your strategy, anyway...sasa.

Hi D220 - I took your point about striking earlier rather than later from a predator's point of view but the BoD would be quite determined to see off any thwarting of their plans to grow this, already well undervalued, business, by all accounts...

Yes, everything has its price at the end of the day but that price would need to be nearer the £5 level than not, imv, given the current stats / prospects, etc., - don't know about much Ophir, tbh, - is that relevant? - sasa.

I'm with chinch on this one - we're a long way off in ascertaining what this could ultimately be worth.

Until we know whether Rowallan is commercial, Rhum 3 is successfully side - drilled (we only have 40% of what's known to be there at present) and Columbus's contribution is determined, there's more than likely a further game changer ahead, in reserves accretion / revenue, etc., imv.

Moreover, any successful Rowallan result would automatically de-risk the other surrounding licenced areas that Serica's recently acquired, quite apart from any success SQZ might have in extending the lives of the BKR assets we now share, income - wise and then there's the burgeoning net cash inflow we're enjoying....

No, the BoD is looking for additional acquisitions to grow the business still further, not to sell it at this crucial stage to an opportunistic third party. If such an approach was to be tabled, (with the offeror seeing what we see currently) I guess the BoD would put a high premium on the potential and rightly so.

Remember, we're only selling on a prospective multiple of 3 x eps for 2019 right now, on my guesstimate, even if Rowallan fails and Rhum 3 remains problematic...

A realistic starting point 'for consideration' would be £5 ps as things stand, never mind a 'throwaway' £2 + you mention, D220, I'd say, barring accidents, etc., Just my take, anyway but DYOR, as always - sasa.

Weaker gas prices of late are a bit surprising, given the winter period we're now in but I'd expect these to recover shortly and don't forget we have a 50% share of the BKR revenues this year (25% hike in income from last year) so that's a significant boost for the 2019 figs when they're reported next year.

Meanwhile, ahead of Rowallan, Rhum3 expansion hopes and the probability of another significant deal being announced at some point, the pros. p/e of less than 3 (my calcs) more than justifies the current sp, imv - sasa.

Are due out on Wednesday, I think....sasa.

Nice to see these recovering around 10% over the past few days - sasa.

Agreed, D220 - we have a good combination of exploration licences already, now augmented by rising production revenues from established fields which offer scope for life extension, giving rise to our burgeoning cash resources.

That's a nice combination in my book and with Rowallan and Rhum3 developments now underway, the BoD is looking for more existing production deals to strengthen their portfolio, not more 'specs' at this stage...sasa.

Hi flexmw - no probs; happy to oblige and hope our responses help and our aspirations materialise - sasa.

I was going to respond to flexmw's question as well but as it was addressed to you, dick, I thought I'd wait for you to reply first and you've covered the points I would have made, too, fwiw!

I don't set any price targets on the shs I hold, either, nor do I bother with trading in and out, as so much depends on the backdrop at the time that an arbitrary goal might have been reached, quite apart from the variables running all the time (oil price in this case, sentiment, RNS's etc.,) - so long as the fundamentals haven't deteriorated, I tend to let the successes run.

There are always unforeseen events to watch out for along the way, of course but that's the nature of this game...

Been in the mkts a long time now but if I've learn't anything, it's that good management / decent assets (both producing and pending in this case) and a strong balance sheet almost invariably make for a growing earnings stream and the stock's valuation will reflect this over time. We have all three of those pre-requisites in situ here.

As to ultimate worth, I think that realisation is some way off yet, given the transformation now underway, post BKR.

This year we might see eps of around 50p ps if all goes well (i.e current p/e of 2.5) and beyond that, who knows, if Rowallan / Rhum3 deliver and then there's Columbus to look forward to and, maybe, another deal could be announced, given the rapidly growing cash pile?

At some stage, TCW might wish to see Serica listed on the main mkt to gain optimum exposure / recognition (as his 'swan song'?) - to achieve that, the sp needs to be 260p or more (assuming the float remains unchanged) and that could herald a maiden dividend announcement to appeal to the Instos at that time.

Ergo, there's a lot to look forward to in my book and an eventual sp of 500p wouldn't be beyond reach if such events transpired. Just my take, anyway...sasa.

Interesting insight there, dick, as to how you view things, especially concerning Serica and the 'main man' behind it - can only agree with your assessment on both counts.

I, too, have a couple of speculative 'oilies' running alongside my decent SQZ holding, fwiw (which I now regard as having morphed beyond the speculative category into a sound investment case, given the latest, transformational, developments) as I like some excitement, too, despite my advancing years...

As for the macro picture, I endorse your concerns as well about the debt problems which abound just about everywhere you look. Printing money (QE) can only delay the inevitable day of reckoning, imv and thus I hold a few 'goldies', too, as a form of insurance against any calamitous developments - producers, rather than ETF's, btw...sasa.

Echo that, Mommur and well done - there's some way to go here yet, imv - sasa.

Quite a few successful Faroe Petroleum holders, I notice, might well be moving into Serica now. A good replacement, I'd say, where better quality and greater potential will be afforded by so doing - sasa.

Yep - nice to see an informative article on Serica for a change.

Thought the brokers' price targets were quite conservative at 160p, given the other plus points we know about on here but a decent introductory overview for those not familiar with SQZ, nevertheless - sasa.