Member Info for sasa43

The earlier one didn't go through as usual, hence the repeat....sasa.

These 2018 figs. are certainly better than anticipated (especially the cash build) and this year's achievements, all being well, should be even more impressive with our increasing share of BKR , giving credence to achieving some 50p eps for 2019 - illustrating how cheap this share is today to justify a decent further re-rate getting underway. Well done Serica! - sasa.

These figs. are much better than expected, (especially the cash build) which certainly bodes well for an even better achievement this year where the guesstimate of 50p eps (mine anyway) looks increasingly likely.

Well done Serica - on its way to a proper re-rating from here....sasa.

A circumspect view of Serica is interesting but comparing the likes of GKP and Genel to it isn't that relevant, imv, Monty.
A premium for political stability in the UK should be ascribed to Serica, quite apart from the debt - free balance sheet of SQZ which, in these mkts, warrants a further positive differential. Just my take, anyway - sasa.

Hi Mommur - echo that forward looking necessity; it was just that NewKOTB seemed to be a bit worried if the sp didn't immediately pick up smartly after Wednesday's results were out. I tried to put that into context - his long held 'bullish' take on Serica's value won't be undermined in any way, if the traders take a short term profit afterwards.

This time next year, the sp should be much higher than it is now, given the cheap stats I've tried to illustrate for 2019 - sasa.

All those who closely follow this stock will be in it prior to the 2018 results due next Wednesday. They will be impressive v last time, given all we know about the cash in from the 40% share of BKR + a small contribution from Erskine (some 6 weeks, I reckon) with the gas price much higher then than now and the 20% odd we get from a much stronger oil price throughout.

Any good news has to be much better than expected to drive the sp usefully higher after our good run this past year and this is probably what NewKOTB is a bit concerned about. What really matters, though, is how we do this year with management of the BKR assets bedded down to significantly reduce our op. costs, just as our 50% share comes into play, how successful Serica is in accessing the major part of Rhum's reservoir (60% more available) /news on further deals being sought and, to a lesser extent influential, a Columbus update on how things are progressing here. The only negative I can think of right now is the lower gas price currently and how it trends over this year (notwithstanding any further hedging that might be in place) and will all the plus points above more than offset the lower price of our principle commodity if it persists over 2019. They will.

Bearing in mind our $145m odd allowable tax losses available and when they're used to maximise the income cascade we're now enjoying, the gas price 'problem' pales into insignificance; the Co. might even consider an inaugural dividend at some point; a token 1p divd would cost less than £3m and we could easily afford it but it would really galvanise sentiment by us joining the main stream of those producers able to pay something in this income hungry world.

None of this is relevant now but will be when the 2019 figs. are to hand. My guess, fwiw, is we might well be able to earn 50p ps this year to put us on a prospective p/e of a paltry of 2.5 x right now (note the size of the divd cover if we manage it!) but that's all 12 months ahead and enticing it certainly looks, whatever the sp does in the short term, post Wednesday's results.

let's see where we stand with them first to determine our present position and then calculate what 2019 has in store to drive the sp henceforth. GLA - sasa.

Institutional frustration with such poor management in situ often presents an opportunity for an 'activist' investor to get involved, given the likely support to be enjoyed by so many disaffected investors. With such a straight forward business and a specialist, moneyed, target mkt, the combination affords much potential for a real shake up to get things sorted.

With the sp going begging currently, a strategic stake wouldn't cost much to gain board representation and call for a change in management, starting with ousting the CEO to galvanise new leadership and get this enterprise onto the 'front foot' once more. LB must be feeling quite vulnerable after this latest shambles and rightly so, imv - sasa.

Some further buying here on Monday with the new ISA season underway and just prior to the F/Y figs.

Re: the recent ENQ comparison with SQZ, their respective charts over the past couple of years says it all for me - the huge debt burden of the former contrasts so vividly with Serica's debt free balance sheet / swelling cash pile, that the exercise doesn't stand up at all - not imv, anyway....sasa.

This time from the EU to distribute Aviolosin across Europe - can only be positive for EAH but still it doesn't move the sp - this is becoming increasingly overlooked / cheap this share - sasa.

Hi NewKOTB - can't disagree with any of that at all.

I think RELLIM made a very good point the other day that much of the recent price weakness could well be down to profit taking by holders having positions outside of ISA's (the personal allowance before being subject to gains tax is some £11,400 I believe) and all LTH's would have a sizeable profit on any non - ISA holdings already, given the sharp rise in the sp in this tax year.

That expedient selling will, of course, be concluded by Friday's close and on Monday, the new ISA season gets underway where new positions will be opened (£20k max.available) so we could well see a spirited recovery via a reversal of those pressures and if the results are RNS'd shortly afterwards and they're very good, as expected, well... sasa.

Thanks for that, Alessandro - that was always the understanding, so nice to have the confirmation.

The figs. should be impressive as they cover the acquisition period from Jan 1st last year when the gas price was much higher than todays level and 40% odd of output was 'hedged' at 35p per therm back then, if memory serves; there might well have been further 'hedging' since as a precautionary move.

This years outlook is more interesting for me, since we're now on a 50% share of the BKR revenues and much of that will be tax - free in Serica's hands, if not all of it, bearing in mind the $145m odd allowable tax losses we have to utilise and then there are all the other 'updates' to focus upon henceforth.

Can't see the sp staying around this level for long - sasa.

Good point, RELLIM (hadn't thought of that) but it's certainly a likely contributor to the recent slide in the sp - sasa.

Hi Maverick - yep, understood but the 'quiet period' could abruptly end any time now with the figs.being imminent or an RNS announcing the actual date ahead of - the latter would give them a timely reversal opportunity but if that precursor wasn't forthcoming and the results were suddenly released, then... Rather them than me - sasa.

Hi NewKOTB - shorting a stock like this seems very risky to me, especially at this juncture but then some peeps just don't get it, I suppose... sasa.

'Serica now following' - let's see where the sp goes after the 2018 results which are due out very shortly - sasa.

I thought BVS was due to go xd their 38p ps divd on the 29th but I'm told it's today to explain the sharp drop in price; it's just that adjustment. Ergo, nothing to worry about - sasa.

Or is it me missing something? Can't seem to find the usual rolling / varied comments listed - sasa.

Hi NewKOTB - thought that was the min. requirement but looks like a mistake on my part - so that's good news, then. Bring it on...sasa.

Echo that, NewK but the sp will have to get to 260p or more first (£700m cap requirement) but later this year, if all goes well, why not? - sasa.

The on - going gas price is, of course, relevant, N_I - can't disagree with that but in the overall context of SQZ's transformation, post BKR, not crucially so (under the terms of the deal, I think Serica's hedged at 35p per therm for 40% odd, anyway and there might have been subsequent hedging since then) - thus whatever the effect, it should be limited.

The context being 3,000 boepd from Erskine only, pre the deal, to over 10 x that now (I think the latest output accruing is some 34,000 boepd) and that's before any extension successes with the new fields under their operational control / the 25% increase in revenue share generated this year than last / Rhum 3 full resource access efforts (only 40% of known reserves currently utilised) / Rowallan 'spud' result upcoming (hopefully successful) / Columbus development news update and any other deals likely to be announced, bearing in mind their burgeoning cash pile.

Intrigued, btw, by your moniker - do you favour investing in Nickel resources by any chance? Only I'm keen on one in this field, too (EV battery demand etc.,) with a huge resource simply awaiting funding to get going, unlike Serica which
has more than enough cash in the bank. Can give you the 'heads up' on it, if you like? GL anyway - sasa.