Member Info for sasa43

Good observation there, HBLU, about somebody preferring a heavily debt laden / non - income producing project struggling to get off the ground, however laudable, whilst continually knocking the complete opposite situation here with SQZ . Is that what they call 'weird science'?

Hadn't realised he was so supportive of SXX in contrast. Given the fixation about debt, that's a contradiction in terms, if ever I came across it! However, I have a solution to the problem - sell the loss maker drowning in debt and buy the cash generator not having any - simples...sasa.

This latest speculation about SQZ and RRE is, perhaps, understandable but the question arises 'Who needs whom'?

Apart from similar mkt caps right now and each having some 60mmboe / 23k - 25k boepd, that's where the comparability ends, doesn't it? RRE has a good deal of debt, sizeable de-commissioning costs coming down the track and risks being refused operator ship of their recently acquired MOUK assets next year, if the OGA finds against them in favour of Taqa's challenge.

Serica has none of these risks, with a debt free balance sheet and similar cash accruals (its only de-commissioning cost near term is the 1% BHP share of the BKR purchase for which they received $1m in advance to deal with) so that's already covered. Moreover, they're already operating the BKR fields (assuming the RHUM US equipment usage licence is renewed in October) and continue to squeeze their op. costs with an increase to a 60% share of the BKR revenues / income becoming due from Jan 1 next year. So, the difference between them is quite stark at this stage, imv.

If SQZ thinks MOUK's major oil assets are worth going for to equalise their oil / gas exposure, then a T/O offer for RRE seems more plausible than a merger, given the above differing characteristics and that would avoid any management clashes which might otherwise arise - Serica's team is already an established and more experienced outfit than RRE's, with contributions from RHUM 3 and Columbus yet to come. They might well baulk at the de-commissioning costs involved with MOUK anyway...

That's my take on this notion, fwiw - sasa.

Hi CF73 - I think you might be right that this could be the turning point we've all been yearning for for so long.

I posted my comments to this effect a short while ago but it hasn't been put up on here yet, for some reason but it can only be viewed positively, imv - sasa.

than expected - the sudden drop in the sp illustrates that all too clearly and it will take a while for FRES to regain its poise as a more reliable Gold / Silver play. I think that AU is the more important pm contributor to profits these days, fwiw with AG / Zinc and lead accounting for the rest.

As for a T/O, 75% of the equity is held by a local billionaire, so nothing happens on this score without his say so. With only a 25% free float listed, he might even think of taking it private, given he's already got control and that implies that he wouldn't need to pay a premium for the balance, if he was so minded. Just a thought to ponder...

I cut a nasty loss yesterday at 720p and won't be looking to reverse that for a while, given the better / more reliable alternatives elsewhere to participate in the positive outlook for AU and AG - no point in 'treading water' with this one for now and thereby miss out on recouping the damage done here.

Sometimes one just has to take the pragmatic approach to things. Just my take, anyway - sasa.

On Tuesday, I believe, so we should have a better idea how things now look for H2 / their forecasts, etc., given the higher gold price of late and more so, the impressive upsurge in AG.

Given the latest negativity towards FRES by some houses, any positive news might well wrong - foot them to prompt a decent upturn for a change - sasa.

'Serica should have made some sort of acquisition by now', you say upomega. Give them a chance, I say; they're rightly bedding down their transformational BKR deal whilst carefully looking around for another quality deal at the right price, as Mitch has already stated.

That's the responsible management approach in my book, so just be patient. If Serica could be in someone else's sights while we wait, as has been suggested, then any opportunistic move for them won't come cheap, imv - the current stats, never mind the prospective multiples, suggest that twice the current price would need to be considered to gain traction on that one - sasa.

switching from here into this morning's re-listing of Rockrose Energy (RRE) prompting a softer SQZ sp today? Many maintain RRE's shs are still very cheap, post their Marathon Oil UK deal.

There are similarities with Serica but not many, imv... The last time I looked at the, then suspended, RRE, they are a small outfit with limited or no operator experience and although the MOUK deal is now throwing off a lot of cash for them, I see their operatorship licence in some areas is now being challenged with the OGA looking into the matter - not a good sign...

Good luck to those getting involved there but I prefer something more established, with seasoned management and easier to understand, so I'm sticking with SQZ as something I'm familiar with, especially ahead of their next updates. Anyone got any views on this, in case I've done Rockrose a disservice, unwittingly? - sasa.

Hi BIGBangs - I agree with Tiger's comment, just posted, fwiw...

Mexico isn't the ideal location for many investors at present but where is these days? Most miners are situated in fairly undesirable areas unfortunately (apart from the US and Canada where they're a good deal more expensive) but if value is sought and the political situation seems discounted, FRES should return to favour, especially if gold and silver holdings continue to be sought after - just a few years ago, these shs were trading around £20 or so. Good luck, anyway - sasa.

This is now moving in AG's favour, having recently fallen from 94 odd to 86 currently - good news for the likes of FRES at last. If this continues, it should spur interest in this leading gold / silver producer - the only FTSE 100 precious metals miner available at present.

The outlook for both pms remains promising in today's debt ridden / uncertain climate and although the political backdrop in Mexico is problematic right now, FRES looks quite oversold at present to me and I've picked up a few more, accordingly.

Just my take but always DYOR, of course - sasa.

Tend to agree with your comment, Winston; the drop in the sp does seem excessive, given the modest drop in production in yesterday's RNS, although they announced something similar last time, so the cumulative effect might well lead to additional disaffection in the short run.

Also, the political climate in Mexico has deteriorated somewhat of late and this aspect doesn't help, either, of course...

I'd be disinclined to add to my FRES position right now - I'd guess that Barc might have unloaded a bundle, given their jaundiced view of the outlook and their lowly TP or there's been an 'off mkt' disposal which has yet to be confirmed by a reportable change in an Insto's holding.

I, too, am quite long in gold miners at present (producers only) and the only slight worry I have is that most observers are positive on the outlook for pms currently whereas I feel more comfortable when the consensus is just sanguine. Longer term, though, the case for them in this debt ridden climate is pretty self - evident to me... Just my take, fwiw, anyway - sasa.

pooroldman - re: the MM's, 'twas ever thus - however, without them we wouldn't have a mkt in this at all. We'd be relying on 'matched buyers / sellers' lists left with the Co Secretary as applies to private co's and that often takes ages to facilitate a trade and settle it - ergo, no immediate 'topping up' / 'top slicing' or profit taking opportunities available as we're used to today.

In the US, they have a similar system (ex Nasdaq) called the 'pink sheets' which can have you waiting to deal for ages. Thus, as controversial as AIM is with some of the questionable practices often adopted by the MM's, it's certainly better than the above - you might not like the price, on occasions but you can, at least, almost invariably deal there and then if you choose to.

Picking a stock like this one (assuming you're a holder) should continue to do very well in spite of the MM's shenanigans - you might even be able to change your moniker to 'not so poor old man now' ultimately; you never know! Good luck, anyway - sasa.

Hi Manuel - good to hear from you and hope all's well with you and yours...

Although we're all 'captive LTH's' in this for now, at least we haven't got the bank knocking on our door over covenant breaches nor any anxious bondholders keen to relieve us of our equity which is something while we sit this out - not much at present but something, nevertheless.

Your 'oily' presumably was Serica. 'A profit's a profit' and all that - still got mine and it's fortunately carrying this baby to date, thus making perseverance with AMC easier - sasa.

It seems a chunky reduction in an Insto's holding, just confirmed in this morning's RNS, must have prompted the sudden drop last week.

The sp has largely recovered subsequently and with the stats here affording 'good value' and the outlook for AU remaining positive, as you say, the shs should continue to do well - sasa.

Poly shs are some 5% down today? - sasa.

Hi rylidan - have you overestimated the break even production cost here?

Last year's AISC for 2018 was only $682 per oz; less gearing on the spot price, admittedly but being amongst the lowest cost producers in the industry, a much higher profits cushion provides comfort in the event of a decline in the gold price - well worth having, just in case...

On balance and given the wider profit margin if the AISC figure remains around the $700 per oz. level for this year, your projections seem quite attainable to me, I'd say - sasa.

Hi Mommur - frustrating it is currently as there's nothing to justify the weakness of the sp of late, as far as I can see, apart from one persistent 'knocker' on the bb who's trying to unsettle sentiment...

I rely on the present / prospective stats applicable to Serica to gauge value here (Jeremy's post of last Thursday at 13.33 citing Market screener's analysis is well worth reading) and it's certainly compelling, imv.

I, too, have a decent holding in this and added some more yesterday in anticipation of a decent rebound shortly - there's overt value on offer currently, I reckon - sasa.

Some imply that this is a 'crock of ....' while others who've done the research and invested in it are convinced that it's a 'crock of gold' around these levels.

I've done my research, too and am firmly in the latter camp, having bought another 25k shs this morning at 116p.

This sp is well below where it should be, given the current stats / good management / debt free balance sheet whilst generating oodles of cash and upbeat outlook - it's all there if you bother to look! - sasa.

Thanks for posting this, Jeremy - very useful.
Their assessment / forecasts largely coincide with mine as things stand, fwiw but in the latter regard, their projections are, of course, all pre - Rhum 3, Columbus contributing and any additional major deal they're on the lookout for, so the prospective figs. are likely to be even more impressive.

Btw, I was under the impression that the bulk of Rhum's resource (some 60%) was contained within the yet to be drilled portion so, if they're successful here, the further contribution will be considerable over time. Do put me right if I have this the wrong way round - sasa.

You're forgetting your own rule here, NewKOTB (which we've all tried to observe) - don't get too steamed up with him as he's just trying to play us all. That's his raison detre, after all...

He has no holding in Serica, no interest at all, other than just trying to draw attention to himself - sasa.

Roger that - was thinking too much about where the sp would be next year, post another deal! - sasa.