Member Info for sasa43

Hi wilfie - I suspect that it's to do with the Govt's present review of the participants in the 'Help to Buy' scheme - PSN has hardly acquitted itself well on the shoddy workmanship of some of their homes bought under the scheme and then there's the scandal of selling leasehold props, too, given rising ground rents with no freehold ownership etc.,

I don't know what % of new properties Persimmon has sold under leaseholds but I know that around 50% of their sales are under the HTB scheme. There's a risk, therefore, that the Co. might be barred from participating in it henceforth but I think that's unlikely myself, given their sizeable output of new homes and their assurance to the Housing Minister that renewed efforts are underway to improve build quality / enhance their training scheme, etc.,

However, until the Minister announces his decision on whether PSN is allowed to continue involvement with HTB, the anxiety will persist, I guess...

Meanwhile, the shs are statistically cheap right now with the high yield lending much support, too.

Hope that helps, anyway - sasa.

Hi monty - I'm not sure that the 2018 results will see utilisation of our $145m odd allowable tax losses yet, since the income received from BP was post tax from them in our books.

They might be using some of the tax credits in their hands to make for a tax free receipt but that would only involve using about a third of the $145m tax allowances. Ergo, this year's figs. should see the major usage of them, hence my keeness to see their forecasts for 2019 where we're on a 50% share of BKR's revenues, quite apart from other news.

That's my reading of the utilisation of the aggregate tax losses, fwiw but I could be wrong....sasa.

Not sure about that, Ramptastico but the figs. will be the more important - an ops. update might well be incorporated in any forecasts for this year, of course - they're due this month / early April... sasa.

Hi Mommur - we'll have the 2018 figs. to hand before we know the Rowallan result which should remind the MMs what we're now involved with + hopefully, a punchy forecast of much more to come for this year to push the sp to the 140p -150p level prior to the drilling result - sasa.

Confirming the sale of their plastics division has gotta be good news for the shs. Not only does the move improve the balance sheet somewhat but makes for a pure packaging play (ex the plastics negativity these days) so the long awaited price recovery might now get underway, at last - sasa.

You've got a wholesome / comprehensive reply from dickupham there, Stableboy. I'd just add that we've got last year's figures coming out this month / early April, so I reckon you've got a short while to ponder what to do.

It would be worthwhile trawling back thru' some of the recent posts on here to get a flavour of what might be reported soon and the likely forecast for the current year; worth checking their website, too, as part of your research which is essential for you to feel comfortable with whatever you decide is best for you. Good luck - sasa.

Hi Joe - understood; that notion was suggested by turfmoor the other day which I thought was equally plausible, given the speed of the sp drop recently.

If it proves to be the case, the implication must be that it'll be another big deal to extend the 'transformational' profile of Serica, as they have a fast growing cash pile already, relative to their mkt cap. In that event, the sp will likely rebound quite sharply I'd have thought, so waiting now could equally cost a few pence. Difficult to judge, short term....sasa.

That's a plausible alternative explanation for the sudden sp drop yesterday, too, turfmoor - a possible placing being worked on to fund another, more sizeable, acquisition this time.

Mitch came across as being keen to progress their acquisition programme, if an attractive proposition presented itself and if a larger prospect is available, then a cash raise to top up the pot might explain it. We'll see - sasa.

Hi Joe - one sees the odd 'back' in AIM shs occasionally, especially if a 'tree shake' is being orchestrated.

We do have a large holder on the register (the Hardys) who've done very well out of this, so they might be lightening up on their large holding (11% of the float at the last showing) or there might be a 'problem' with the Rowallan 'spud' currently underway, who knows? But it seems too early in the drilling programme for that to me but I could be wrong.

As I posted earlier, the 'spud' is a free carry for Serica, anyway, so no cost to us whatever the outcome; just a nice bonus if it does come in, as hoped.

Notwithstanding the Hardy possibility, the 'tree shake' explanation seems the most likely, bearing in mind that the cheapness of this share is based upon the stats behind it already, never mind this year's forecasts. Thus all these upcoming events (results from 'Rowallan' / Rhum 3 extension news / Columbus development update etc.,) are in the price for nothing right now. That's my take at the mo, fwiw...sasa.

That would be my thoughts, too, RELLIM. If it does disappoint, in the event, it is a 'free carry' for us anyway, so no financial loss incurred - just an initial 'downer' that this bonus was not to be.

Fortunately, we have many other 'irons in the fire'... sasa.

Echo that, Uk_Steve....sasa.

Hi Noloss - yep, I'm still in here and waiting, thanks, initially for the PFS, like the rest of us LTH's. Until we have that to hand, there's been little else new to talk about, tbh - hence my 'absence'...

Hopefully, things will get going post that RNS and it'll lead to something really tangible at last.

Meanwhile, I've been busy on the Serica (SQZ) bb, fwiw; it's done very well while AMC's been treading water / usefully offsetting my large paper loss on this to date - lots more yet to be seen from this rapidly growing producer, I reckon - sasa.

I read today's 'road news' as a prelude to the PFS, Noloss and beyond that (assuming it's impressive) something else could well ensue at long last. Just my take, fwiw....sasa.

Hi Joe - no probs; happy to help if I can - sasa.

Hi Joe - Roger that; happy to provide more info. on Serica's bb if you're interested... sasa.

Hi Joe - nice to hear from you, too...

Yep, I'm still in AMC - waiting, waiting, for their treasure trove to be commercialised - one day very soon, hopefully!

Similarly, I'm a holder here, too, (patiently waiting for the same reason) but rarely post about things until we get some really tangible news to get our teeth into - that shouldn't be too long now, either.

I've been involved with Serica (SQZ) meanwhile which, fortunately, has done very well with lots more to come, imv.

Worth having a look on that bb, if you're not into it. It's still the best bet around, I reckon, with burgeoning North Sea production now, oodles of cash accruing, a 'spud' already underway (Rowallan) and a major gas reservoir development coming up in a few month's time, yet it's on a pros p/e of under 3 x on my calcs - dirt cheap! - sasa.

That's just silly, doubleuk; you don't seem to appreciate L2's significance in finessing the timing of transactions / the way the mkt's leaning, vis a vis vols. etc., at any given time - It's a useful sentiment gauge, effectively...

I never use spread bets (usually a mug's game) nor trade using it - just to finesse order exe's; was in the mkts well before the advent of the electronic order book, so I know how useful this is in seeing where the mkt in a share is positioned at any given time.

If you don't appreciate it, then fine but don't knock those who understand it and benefit from doing so....sasa.

Hi chinch - have been watching this tendency to decline a bit on balance, too but nothing to worry about, imv...

With no news expected until the 2018 figs. are released next month, we are in a bit of a vacuum until then, so it is a bit of a trading opportunity for some, especially after the headlong rise last year. However, the results should more than rekindle interest in it and especially so the forecasts for this year where the prospective stats should really draw attention to how undervalued this still is.

If Rowallan and the Rhum 3 extension come in, too, never mind news of another deal, then say no more....

Ergo, I'm not bothered at all by the slight drift in the sp of late; March onwards is what I'm waiting for! - sasa.

Don't get that comment, NewKOTB - care to elaborate? - sasa.

Couldn't go along myself, D220 and haven't yet spotted anything on the Serica website about it yet.

Btw, moneyam.com is closing its service to subscribers next Thursday and 'merging' with Shares magazine thereafter (I use it primarily for L2 and 'stock watch') but they're not continuing with L2 at all, so I'm likely to sign up on here for continuity of those services - any users on here have any views on LSE's current L2 and 'stock watch' facilities? - sasa.