Member Info for sasa43

Hi loads - had a quick look at this - not that impressed, tbh and certainly nowhere near as solid as SQZ, ahead of their BKR deal, getting underway next week.

The tech looks interesting but the balance sheet hangs by a thread, as far as I can see. A fund raise must be close, I'd say, especially if the Toyota interest requires developing...

SQZ on the other hand, has no debt, $20m cash in the bank and the imminent prospect of, maybe, $100m more coming their way shortly. Moreover, being an 80%+ gas producer henceforth with prices stronger then oil right now / demand for gas on the increase, given the storage shortages, etc., Serica seems in a completely different league, I have to say.

In these mkts, I'd prefer something more reliable than an embryonic technology story, tbh, even though the waste conversion process is a laudable one in todays climate. GL with it, anyway....sasa.

Hi loads - great to hear from you and hope your recovery continues well. Just had an op. myself, incidentally and so slowly recovering from that now...

Sorry you didn't get on board this one when I highlighted it a couple of years ago but don't be put off by the 5 x increase in the sp this past year - it's only now getting into its stride, imv. The BKR deal is hugely transformational for the co and Serica's due to receive a huge cash inflow from it when it officially commences next week.

The shs are on a lowly pros p/e of only 2.5 as far as I can work out - so it's seriously worth looking into this, even now, as I say.

Will look at your other recs shortly but, tbh, I'd be surprised if they measure up to SQZ's potential from here..... ATB - sasa.

20 x increase in reserves, not revenues, Monty; just to quote accurately from the RNS.

Good to have confirmation that Erskine is now producing again around 3400 bls per day to Serica; presumably, this will increase a bit more over time with everything else on track and looking good for the changeover next week - sasa.

Agree with that, Tiger, especially the point about ex Randgold, FRES will be the only FTSE 100 miner available.

Offering an equal exposure to Gold and Silver, if these pms meaningfully return to favour in this dodgy climate, the shs could easily rebound sharply, provided, of course, there's nothing more behind it than MS's negative view. As you say, you pays your money and takes your choice - a good opportunity here now, I'd guess - sasa.

Nice timing there, D220 - seems like the sp is regaining its poise now - 'Fortune favours...' and all that - sasa.

Echo your overview entirely, RELLIM - sasa.

The sudden drop of $4 in the oil price yesterday might well have unsettled everything in the O&G sector; the mkt tends to be indiscriminate in such a climate, ignoring the fact that the gas price applies much more here (85% post BKR) which has being going the other way of late.

Even if there is something behind this sudden drop, like a delayed Erskine resumption or even the BKR deal deferred for a short while on some technical issue to explain it, the benefits from both will just be delayed, that's all.

The MM's are known to trigger 'stop losses' on occasions to get some cheap stock in, too, especially if they have a decent order to fill (more of a problem being on AIM rather than the main mkt) but either way, I rely on the prospective stats to highlight the value afforded in a situation like this.

A respected research house suggests eps of 54p for next year (v my guesstimate of 50p fwiw) so a pros. p/e of under 2.5 currently applies - decent growth stocks don't come much cheaper than that in my experience! - sasa.

Yep, disappointing run into the close but some profit taking to be expected, I suppose, given there were very few stocks at their 'highs' earlier on today. Gas is much more relevant here, not the oil price, as you say, chinch.

Tomorrow's another day, however, as Nov 30th. looms into view... sasa.

Good question, that, chinch - Not sure myself, tbh but RELLIM's response seems to answer it. Prior to his posting, I would have thought that the sharing terms apply to everything produced, from Rhum3, fwiw - sasa.

Before the BP/ Total / BHP deal is ratified and we'll get sight of the amount of the aggregated income due to Serica.

That prospect is surely behind the resilience of the sp right now, along with the possibility of any likely plans for redeployment of the monies henceforth, statement of Erskine's renewed 'flow rate' confirmation, if not beforehand and the Rowallan 'spud' starting mid - December. Early next year (1st Q) the drilling result should be known.

All bodes well for a strong run into the y/e, imv, so GLA - sasa.

Cheers, Troajan - useful interview, that - sasa.

On POLY being included in the Russian Index - can only increase liquidity / visibility and enhance the rating - sasa.

Echo that, dewilliams - Apple competitors like Samsung, Huawei etc., spring to mind obviously; the corollary being that IQE might themselves be vulnerable now after such a steep sp decline.

If any foreign producer has coveted IQE's leading technology, now would be a good time to ponder an offer, I'd have thought and 'poke Apple in the eye' for once! Just sayin' it's gotta be a possibility...sasa.

Hi max2mentor - re: point 4 in your earlier post, I think only the audited drilling results can be included in the PFS - the large sample from this years drilling outcome has gone off to be independently verified and the results might not be back in time for inclusion.

Supposedly, the PFS might include an addendum to include the 'very good' 2018 drilling results, 'as determined by the Co, but subject to independent validation etc.,' to embellish the appeal of PFS but that's just a guess on my part...

Thought the interview was reasonably good, although little new info, apart from the inference that it's the toll smelting route for now, on cost grounds and, possibly, the 'own smelter' option later on to maximise revenues if finances by then, permit.

The interviewer knew his stuff, was polite and succinctly raised pertinent questions; he might be a LTH? - sasa.

Probably not, 4kandles - the oil price seems the major preoccupation even though we'll be 85% gas, post Nov 30th.

Ahead of the Erskine commissioning / 'flow rate' confirm, the BP/ Total deal commencing in just over a fortnight's time, these considerations, especially the latter, seem to be underpinning the sp currently and justifiably so, imv.

I'd expect renewed demand to be seen after Nov 30th, bearing in mind the sizeable cash inflow to SQZ / how much is involved / whether most or all of it flows to their 'bottom line' (after employing their sizeable tax losses against it) and then there should be additional interest in the upcoming Rowallan 'spud' to spur demand...

Nice to be holding something stable in these volatile mkt conditions; so far, anyway - sasa.

Hi RELLIM - yes, BP did give up on the Rhum3 drill programme for fear of upsetting the Americans; had Trump not intensified the US sanctions against Iran earlier this year, it probably would have been concluded by now.

It is technically challenging, as you say (they have to unlock the major part of the reservoir by horizontally drilling it; via a side door, effectively, I think Serica previously stated) but they've had the best part of this year to have studied the requirements and with all BP's prior work available, I'd guess there shouldn't be much of a delay in getting on with it.

I'm sure I also read that the Rhum 3 part contained some 60% of the 'tank' system, so with BP's revenues only from the smaller part of it thus far, the current flow rate you mention could be usefully higher once fully opened up - sasa.

That's a good list of the pros and cons currently, chinch; the only comment I'd make is that the Rhum3 drill is a near certainty to be undertaken, given that the greater part of the reservoir is deemed to be contained in that un-drilled area; not for nothing it's referred to as the 'Jewel in the Crown' of the BKR trio - sasa.

It's all about next year and thereafter, really, workover. Erskine might produce, say, 7.500 bls oil equiv. for the rest of this year and Serica will receive the 98% cash equivalent of BKR's shared production under the terms of the deal(s) - how much will that be? Dunno, cos the op. costs of BP / Total / BHP and today's small 'tidying up' deal are unknown at this stage; at least to me.

Next year, we'll have a greater proportion accruing to us, (say, 25,000 bls per day from BKR) with SQZ's much lower op. costs benefitting us (maybe $25 per bl?) + an uninterrupted flow from Erskine, hopefully, (running at, say, 4,000 bls per day) so, maybe, 30,000 bls + per day overall - that's a serious transformation, i.e 10 x our production hitherto.

Then we have the Rowallan (free carry for us) 'spud' coming up mid - December (result mid - January) - who knows what the outcome will be here? Even a disappointment won't cost us anything.

Then there's news expected on drilling the more prolific half of Rhum3 and likely further acquisitions to be announced plus Columbus nearing production in a couple of years time with the additional licenses recently secured looking increasingly astute at this stage, never mind those held elsewhere - so it's all going on here!

A tribute to top management in making this a top stock we have here now, imv, anyway - sasa.

but poor marketing = relative obscurity, especially on AIM. That often results in real value going begging...

Following the recent sale of the 'Jack up' rig business to TFMC, along with some licensing rights, this could be about to change, as evidenced by the recent orders from the RF and the likelihood of more to follow as this is now their 'key target market'.

Add in the £14m cash to be received from the sale to TFMC and up to a further £27m possibly from the three year 'earn out' agreement, the current sp will be backed by some 25% cash initially and up to 75% if the division sold performs well over that time frame. A decent dividend could well be announced soon.

They've never been in such good shape, as now, so I've just increased my recent position in this, fwiw - sasa.

Agree with that, RELLIM - I'm sure that I read somewhere that SQZ will be using their $160m odd allowable North Sea tax losses to advantage in maximising the benefits of the BKR deal, i.e getting as much of the burgeoning income from the deal straight through to Serica's 'bottom line' - hence the sizeable boost to eps anticipated in next year's figures.

Today's excellent RNS merely enhances that prospect all the more. Echo, too, the congratulatory posts to TCW and his team from other posters on here; the Board clearly isn't resting on its laurels which is plain to see! - sasa.