Member Info for sasa43

Hi gwm - don't think it matters really how many shs / options RY has under his belt; a few million of each, as I recall.

What does matter is what this thing's worth; some might scoff at my latest NPV calcs but I got within 6% of RY's published figure last time (at $7.5 per lb) and as it's generally accepted that a share should trade around 50% or more of its NPV if it's decently funded to get going, we can all see how absurdly cheap this is, pre 'developments' - sasa.

I've re-worked the NPV calcs. using the WD 'short cut' method following yesterday's latest mining results, fwiw...

We must have now some 1.5m tons Ni (2m tons Ni equiv.) going into the PFS and, possibly, 2m tons Ni (2.5m tons Ni equiv.) ultimately, if the MRE keeps growing as it seems to be and using RY's $7.5 per lb forecast he used last time, the NPV works out today around 140p for the former and 190p if the latter transpires.

Do you think the prolonged wait will be worth it if we see these sort of figures? You betcha! - sasa

With the Ni price much higher today, RY could well employ a higher Ni forecast comprising the PFS when it's out (say $9 per lb) - who knows? But even on the above / $7.5 per lb assessment, the improved IRR / extended mine life he mentioned yesterday should make for a dramatic impact when we finally see it.

the price of gold and silver at present despite the pressures building inexorably ahead of the Italian budget coming up / discomfiture for the Euro / bond prices looking vulnerable (China holds a huge amount of US Treasuries) / many European banks' balance sheets very stretched / the EU's budget deficit a major problem, especially ex Brexit / inflation a growing concern, etc.,

How long can the Fed hold down the price of AU ? No idea but something has to give soon and I doubt that another round of financial engineering will suffice, so the obvious beneficiary is? - sasa.

Hi speedy - just seen your post - 'me losing confidence'? - Nah, like Noloss and other LTH diehards on here the, albeit frustrating and often inexplicable delays / absence of updates and timelines missed, etc., don't alter the facts, which keep me interested and invested here, even after ten years...

We all know what they are with the EV revolution now underway merely accentuating the appeal of what we've got all the more (talk about a fortuitous and timely occurrence for AMC at this juncture!).

As I've suggested many times, KM is an increasingly desirable and hugely valuable asset we're sitting on today (right stuff, right place and now right time to boot) and if RY and his BoD can't monetise it in this climate, somebody else will.

Quitting now could well be a big and costly mistake for those who give up through frustration, imv.

Yes, we've been heavily diluted to get here but we've made it and we all know the shs are worth hugely more than todays derisory 4p odd; so while that remains the case, I remain involved. GLA - LTH's....sasa.

Agreed, Mani but the BKR assent is crucial in determining the immediate outlook; guess the sp might swing 25p, either way, from here depending on the outcome. Suspect many are waiting in the wings to add / buy if the result is positive and won't mind paying up for the shs, as then, at least, they'll know what they're dealing with... sasa.

Two years ago, FRES was around £18ps and has since fallen by some 57% to todays 790p or so. Over the same period, gold and silver prices have declined by 14% and 29% respectively (measured by the PHGP and PHSP ETFs) - so there's the gearing available when demand picks up again - JPM shenanigans notwithstanding.

The only explanation for the excessive price setback that I can think of is the growing bond mkt threat, i.e, if this sells off markedly on bank insolvency worries, sovereign debt concerns emerging once again, the rise in yield levels will, initially at least, work against all equity mkts but those bond proceeds need to be redeployed somewhere; cash is the obvious port of call, but when inflation becomes a concern, too, the only real assets to have a decent position in as well, are gold and silver.

Ergo, if the debt worries intensify, Au and Ag prices should rally strongly as they've done historically with the leading producers in the vanguard, as before. FRES looks ideally positioned here, if this transpires...sasa.

Nixon took that action in 1971 not '73, btw...sasa.

That's about the size of it, Pokerchips, unfortunately - unless the buyers of those shorts start insisting on physical delivery of the metal (same as for AU right now) the disconnect between a free price and a manipulated one is stark.

Such malfeasance wouldn't be tolerated in other mkts but AU and AG prices v the US$ have been too sensitive a comparator since Nixon uncoupled the greenback from the gold price ($35 fixed per oz) in '73.

Over recent years there has been a sustained effort to outlaw this practice but to no avail, as yet....sasa.

Like it, cowboy - was thinking the same thing myself, i.e he must have 'bigger fish' to fry right now, then! - sasa.

Hi Joe - can't disagree with any of that, save to say that RY has primarily concentrated on what he's good at, i.e finding the stuff and proving it up which he's been doing in spades...

As costly as the controversial 'death spiral' financing packages have been for us PI's, he's managed to get us to where we are now, despite everything (and many junior explorers have fallen by the wayside over the past decade) so, hopefully, we're on the cusp of beginning to realise the 'first fruits' of his sustained efforts and our patience.

Until something tangible and meaningful is confirmed, though, vis a vis commercialisation, the mkt's cynicism will persist. Hopefully, we're genuinely close to that now and a sea change in perception towards AMC and thus it's true worth today, should more than justify all the angst the LTH's have suffered on this tortuous journey.

Just need an interested party to make a move and get the ball rolling... sasa.

Hi Joe - 'What's my take on the quote so far today?' Not much really, tbh - it's come in a bit, that's all...

We've been sitting here waiting for some good news for so long now that, even with an impressive PFS / other possible positives 'imminent', the cynicism towards AMC is almost palpable.

The MMs know that, of course, so it will take something really unexpected to remove the lethargy; let's hope that we finally get lucky after all this time - sasa.

On balance, agreed, Mani, just ...although the further delay just adds to the frustration of not knowing definitively where we stand with this crucial assent. Hopefully, another couple of months will be worth it, given Serica's continuing guarded optimism surrounding it.

Meanwhile, Erskine should be back on line in the interim (end of this month according to the RNS) to generate worthwhile income once again and at a higher throughput than hitherto and worth more, too, so that's good news. The Rowallan 'spud' update is now expected in Q4, I see, so that's another supportive prospect as well.

This years figs. will be impacted by these delays / additional costs incurred, for sure, so it will all be about next year and if everything is to hand before Christmas and running for us once more, the sp should advance strongly - sasa.

Echo that, RELLIM - if memory serves, pre the BKR deal, I think the cost per bl was some $14 and post BKR it was calculated to be $21 per bl odd, (with gas prices also strong since) so ample margin v todays prices.

A Rowallan 'spud' update is due in this Qtr, as well, so this month could well encompass all three expectations - be great if all of them are to hand by then and in the positive, too! - sasa.

Such a wide spread often implies the MM's are expecting something significant to occur, too - quite apart from extremely low volumes making for wider margins, they don't want to be caught out, either, so a reluctance to relinquish stock right now is understandable. Let's hope their reticence is well placed - sasa.

The first one didn't seem to go through initially...sasa.

Roger that, Joe - we're all rowing the same way, after all, with frustration the real culprit - sasa.

Roger that, Joe - we're all rowing the same way, after all, with frustration the real culprit - sasa.

Hi Joe - think your criticism of RedL's attempt to make some sense of this 'moveable feast' is unnecessarily harsh.

He's better positioned than most to make a decent 'guesstimate' of what might be applicable on the various assumptions one has to make in this quagmire which will only become easier, of course, post the long overdue PFS we're all longing for.

That he considers things from a banker's perspective is an advantage in this guesswork but any additional 'responsibility' for his more informed posts is nullified if he hasn't got that much to go on, like the rest of us.

Better his input than not, when we do have more tangible information to utilise, imv - sasa,

in my post to sansavator, of course....sasa.

Yep, that's about the size of it, ftsedow - quote widening on Aim stocks is one of the 'tell - tale' signs to watch out for, certainly - today's spread is a good example of that. Echo the flip side here, too - sasa.