Member Info for sasa43

Hi speedy, your plan to get back in here, post any decent funding deal / or other event for AMC to 'get out from under' sounds very sensible - yes, you'll almost certainly miss the initial upsurge but if the deal is the harbinger of a 'sea change' there should be much more to come and that will, hopefully, recoup all your loss here and then some...

So, good luck with the strategy and hope it happens soon - sasa.

Hi speedy - I'm too old to be dreaming at my age; wrong I could yet be, certainly but it 'aint over 'til it's over...

I've always based my investment approach on 'value afforded' and there's a shed load of it available here; that's obvious for all to see - it's big and important enough now to be exploited by someone if AMC can't manage it.

After all this time, I'm not surrendering such a 'steal' through impatience (done that on many occasions previously only to regret it) so, unless the fundamentals materially deteriorate, the case for holding on remains intact, imv.

That's how I've judged this thing all along, as you've reminded me and it's merely based on my experience in the mkts, fwiw - no guarantee there, of course but it is the best pointer I have and I'm sorry to learn your, now curtailed, involvement has been such a costly experience.

If the final outcome proves a disaster, I'll be the first to acknowledge the costly miscall on my part and eat much 'humble pie' in consequence but if holding on for a really good pay off wins the day, I won't be on here telling everybody - 'I told you so' - I'll be content enough with seeing the LTH's being well rewarded, as they so obviously deserve after such a long haul.

Hope you've managed to recoup your loss on this one elsewhere, if not yet, then soon, so good luck - sasa.

Echo that overview, cowboy - we're all 'under water' here (most of the LTH's, anyway) and patience has been stretched for all involved; some can take it, many cannot easily and others who cannot any longer, I'd suggest that you just quit and move on to give yourself a break from all the angst.

If there wasn't any chance of this suddenly coming good (and that's based on the humongous find we know we're sitting on) then I'd probably have called it a day some time ago. Growing demand for what AMC has is invariably a strong economic driver of fortune and the revamped PFS, when we get it, should illustrate that all the more.

So I'm sticking with it for a big payoff at some point, otherwise, I'd look for something else which offers greater potential but I haven't come across anything as good as this, which just requires some decent funding deal to instantly unlock it.

With a mkt cap of only £25m odd, Is a T/O or a JV, beyond the wit of man? The naysayers say it's not going to happen; well, fine, that's your view, so why be invested here? If you're not, then do us all a favour and leave us to our fate - sasa.

Hi Southmead - Iran doesn't benefit at all from its 50% share of Rhum at present with their share of the income from it already held in escrow for the duration and that'll remain the case until sanctions are eased or lifted.

While we're still in the EU, it's Brussels who set the policy, not an individual state and the Ambassador will know that.

Yes, we could have disassociated ourselves from the EU's position now but that wouldn't make our seeking a decent trade deal with them, post Brexit, any easier but after we're out of their clutches from next March, our position might well change to foster the trade deal with the US we seek - the Ambassador would appreciate that, too, I'm sure.

As long as INOC's cash from their half of RHUM remains 'frozen', as it surely will, whether Serica develops it or not, there's nothing more that we can do, compliance - wise and a friendly Nation would recognise that as well and avoid denying us of a meaningful portion of our gas supply in refusing to extend the usage licence it granted to BP hitherto.

Ergo, no further advantage for the US but otherwise unnecessary restrictions on an ally whose support they would welcome - next year could well be different on that front, as I say...

That's my take, anyway, fwiw - sasa.

Well, it's possible, I suppose, L2 (assuming INOC is prepared to sell their half) but then that would be dealing with Iran directly and that's too inflammatory a deal in the present climate which could well put the kibosh on the US equipment usage licence we're after.

More likely SQZ would re-work the BP terms if the licence is blocked for the duration and / or, maybe, just hold on to the 50% Rhum purchase, pending sanctions being lifted again - then a deal for the other 50% might be do-able...

Meanwhile, let's hope we get the 'go ahead' soon in respect of the half of it we have now - sasa.

Thanks Maverick + the fuller summary. Hopefully, we'll learn about our waiver very soon - sasa.

Agreed - if the technicals here remain positive and we see, say, Nickel reach around $7per lb, pre the PFS, RY would surely be using a higher Ni price forecast in his calcs (old price was $7.5 based on the lower of $7.5 - $9 per lb forecast) which would materially enhance the value / appeal of the KM project, of course - sasa.

Useful post that, cowboy, with the various correlations, thanks - seems to explain the improving outlook for the NI price currently which bodes well for the PFS / NPV when we finally get those numbers - sasa.

Hi Maverick - 'The US waiver did not address BP's request for a waiver for Rhum' - where did you get that from, please? Maybe, it's still under discussion? Hope so - sasa.

I agree with that, FF but more likely after we have the BKR decision, Erskine's back in play and, hopefully, a successful Rowallan 'spud' to really enhance interest in the shs.

Assuming all the above and with the sp, say, around 100p + and rising, a 1 : 1 scrip issue would usefully boost liquidity, as you say and foster further demand for the shs. Despite the higher listing costs / more exacting regs involved, they would be more readily absorbed by then whilst lower financing costs (if required) would be a useful offset.

Maverick's right in his subsequent post that such a move doesn't guarantee 'more stable prices' but was it does afford is less MM orchestration of the quote once on the main mkt and with many investment groups, hitherto precluded from buying AIM stocks, being able to participate in SQZ's progress henceforth, the additional demand should put Serica's valuation onto a more realistic footing - being the main point of FF's suggestion to benefit the existing and future shareholders.

It's difficult to assess SQZ's current rating, given the importance of the Rhum field production in the equation but with a 'clearance' to develop it, the original stats (Stockopedia) had it around a pros p/e of 3 or so and a PEG of 0.2, if I remember rightly.

Since then we've had a loss of output from Erskine for most of this year (3,000 bls odd per day) but against that we have higher gas and oil prices to utilise once it's 'back on line' so, prospectively, the stats should be better today than hitherto and on the main mkt, I'd guess a doubled eps multiple would soon be ascribed, maybe more, if Rowallan obliges (free carry) and the Columbus news continues to be encouraging and then there's Namibia...

All in all, the share rating should certainly be higher than it is now given the potential / our strong balance sheet, etc., and that'll be much more realisable once we've gravitated up to the main mkt.

That's my take on the notion, anyway, fwiw - sasa.

Hi scottology - re your snapshot calcs earlier, wasn't the $14 bls cost just applicable to Erskine when operational?

I read somewhere that the BKR deal increased costs to around $25 bls odd, bearing in mind much higher op.costs combined / wages for 100+ peeps transferred, etc., - still very low relative to today's gas and oil prices admittedly, so agreed it's very positive for Serica but not quite so bountiful as you've calculated, perhaps? Just saying'...sasa.

Yep, an unexpected 'bonus' announcement, i.e in addition to what we're hoping to see being confirmed shortly (BKR licence, Erskine 'by pass' completed, Rowallan 'spud' update, further news on Columbus development, etc.,) - it's all going on right now...

Even if the R licence is refused, we now have more of the BK part of the BKR deal to reduce that disappointment; although Rhum is the most valuable part of the deal, there'a a degree of underpinning here now to add some comfort.

That aside, Serica seems fairly confident that they'll get the equipment usage licence for Rhum and if they do, the sp should easily attain 100p + bearing in mind the other upcoming news items to add further 'grist to the mill'....sasa.

Agreed, Schach (whilst we don't often agree on many things concerning AMC) you're right in respect of what quality posters, especially those with related backgrounds outside the mkts, contribute to the bb for the good of all.

Red / Vertigo / TDT etc., help to keep our feet on the ground, imv - they do mine, anyway....sasa.

Hi Red - no, I got your overview / Bankers' drift to Noloss okay and also the relevance of Schach's point about no Insto support on the register yet, although as TDT suggests, there could be an amalgam on there, for all we know...

Such sponsorship is important, I agree, from a credibility standpoint and I hope that the RF / FEDC might soon provide that (for the road, etc.,) and that some Instos will then see the appeal of getting involved.

I've always thought that Norilsk remains a reasonable / good possibility, given their similarities (apart from size, of course) if the RF wishes to see this developed but kept 'in house', as it were - although no longer a command economy, per se, when the 'National Interest' is involved, doubtless various inducements could be brought into play, especially now...

Hopefully, the PFS will not disappoint when it arrives - sasa.

Hi DB - my last post on this topic between us, for fear of boring everyone else on here to death about it.

'Front running' was and remains illegal, as you say. I've always been a value investor, not a momentum chaser or trader, (whether on AIM or anywhere else) and value we have here in spades, if and when it's 'unlocked' through adequate funding, a JV or an outright bid for AMC at some point.

Yes, it's been very much a 'hand to mouth' existence so far, agreed but is it impossible to achieve, given the right stuff we have in abundance (we haven't even found the boundaries of it yet), the sudden clamour for Nickel sulphide / sulphate, to meet the exponential demand envisaged in supplying the EV / battery revolution? I think not.

If you agree with the backdrop, then there's immense value on offer here at 4p ps - if you don't, then, trade away but if you're on the wrong side of the fence when 'something' happens, you could miss one helluva pay off if the LTH's views ultimately prove justified. A good gamble at worst / a great coup at best; that's how I see it at this juncture.... sasa.

Great / incisive post there, Red vis a vis the interim influence, or lack of it, from a banker's viewpoint, of the PFS we're all waiting for.

One hopes that a state loan or a consortium funding arrangement (in respect of the road, at least) would be easier to arrange or better still a JV assuming the PFS is persuasive enough as a TEO equiv. prior to the DFS / BFS. By then and assuming we get there, everything should be much clearer all round, notwithstanding the most obvious hope for the hard pressed shareholders.

Given the size and importance of this thing now, I really can't believe the problem's insuperable for us, the RF and / or others, really - sasa.

Hi DB - just seen your post.

My time was in the City, i.e the mkts (initially on most depts of brokers' offices and the trading floor - became a member of the LSE in '77 - and then set up my own firm offshore (investment management for HNW's, pension funds management, Eurobonds, currencies, options, etc., before selling the business and retiring a few years later.

Algos and 'dark pools' were just gaining traction when I retired, so my knowledge here is limited today, admittedly but I was offered DMA upon 'hanging up my spurs' but I thought I could make better use of the money myself, just using L2.

There's an old mkt saw that 'the short term trader is a long term loser' and my experience over those four decades tends to support that saying and thus I'm only likely to trade when the sp gets out of whack with perceived valuations.

The other point I'd make, fwiw, is that, despite all the computerised ops. today, the mkt still reflects human nature (fear and greed etc.,) and peeps fear losing money more than enjoying the making of it, so when negative sentiment abounds, rationale goes out the window, a la the '72 - '74 bear mkt (-73%) and the crash of '87 both of which rendered trading utterly useless and the designers of the then fashionable 'black box' activity admitted as much afterwards in the latter case, as you might recall...

I don't agree, therefore, that 'buy and hold' until things change is old hat (Instos, who represent over 80% of business these days have to invest their underlying funds somewhere) - there's a big difference between accumulating wealth and snatching bits and pieces of it here and there and I don't know of any trader who really made a 'bomb' out of doing it, compared to a successful LT investor - honestly, do you? That's my take on things, anyway - sasa.

Hi gilyard - nice to see you on here and hope you're well.

Destitute Broker seems quite 'au fait' with the inner workings of the mkts and that's fine / useful for those who aren't so familiar with the mechanics involved but he doesn't need to bang on about it all the time; better to assist others on the bb where he can, otherwise it's just tedious and becomes rather tiresome - sasa.

Hi gwm - Schach, I notice and Solis, too, have provided suggestions in answer to your question about investing in Nickel directly but I recall that you were pretty conservative in your approach to things in this game, so I think the ETF's the less aggressive route which might better suit, provided it's not a 'synthetic' vehicle, i.e options employed to do some of the mirroring of the Ni price trend, rather than wholesale exposure to the metal itself. Worth checking that aspect beforehand,

Re: Norilsk, it's not purely nickel, of course but it does trade internationally and provides a useful yield but you'd need to check whether there's a DTR agreement applicable here to avoid any additional withholding tax deduction which you mentioned (can't recall offhand if there is one or not) - those are the choices I'd be considering myself if I was so inclined but I don't know your circumstances, of course, nor your risk tolerance, so no advice offered just DYOR, as you will, I'm sure and GL - sasa.

As you're so fond of telling us on here, DB, that nobody knows how the mkt works but you, shouldn't your moniker better be 'Wealthy Broker' / 'Profitable Operator' / 'Deft Dealer' or whatever...?

I'm retired now after more than forty years in the mkts and like to think that I've a pretty good idea how to play this game after all that time but I don't keep telling everybody how knowledgeable I am / must be in relation to them - l'd be hard pressed to prove it against the best I've come across in this business and luck plays a big part in it, too - sasa.