Member Info for sasa43

Echo that, NewKOTB - all the news released by SQZ about the BKR acquisition stresses No dilution in bringing it off - in fact, their deal is self funding and doesn't even deplete their cash resources, as it benefits SQZ from Jan1st, pending the full 'sign off' in late Q3. The author needed only to check the website...sasa.

Much of the persistent weakness in the sp of late, is probably due to tax - loss selling, as much, if not more so, than anything else and this opportunity concludes today. Ergo, I look for a decent recovery from here, especially after they go XD next Thursday - sasa.

Yes, in the circumstances, I do, growler. For a long time, the sp languished around 12p - 13p and only recently rose to 23p which better facilitated the necessary cash raise, which CHAR deemed it required. They had a decent sum in the bank but needed more to strengthen their position - would the cash raise have been better held around the earlier 13p level, given the then necessary discount off that? - sasa.

The Moroccan drill (now underway) is scheduled for 'touch down' in 40 days or so - it's a 'free carry' with ENI operating. The cash raise was undertaken when the sp was around 23p odd recently, so the 13p offer price to the Instos and entitled shareholders represented a 43% discount - an attractive entry point back then. The money raised was largely set aside to strengthen CHAR's bargaining position for 'farm ins' re: their Namibia drills coming up later this year - all this chatter about a wrong headed cash raise, bad timing etc., with the sp falling below the 13p level now is juvenile stuff. If you can't understand the metrics here, sell up and move on, for your sake; better try NSC's or whatever....sasa.

Echo that, NewKOTB - the RNS was slightly disappointing, that's all, on timings; other than that, nothing's changed. The important thing to concentrate upon are the stats (provided by Stockopedia) pros.p/e of 3, PEG of 0.3, NAV 134p v 29p hitherto and the eps was based upon Brent of $57 / Gas at 43p per therm - both higher currently, especially gas right now and we're 85% gas post the BP acquisitions. Worth remembering the overt value on offer here, quite apart from Rowallan and Columbus coming up...sasa.

I think there's some confusion here about the pipeline blockages; there were two - Erskine (Lomond - Everest pipeline blocked due to waxing build - up again and the Co is seeking a more permanent solution to this problem and will advise once this has been cleared / resolved) and the BP Forties pipeline blockage. The latter (more significant for us now, of course) is now open again and flow rates being resumed, according to the operator, Ineos but the Erskine waxing blockage resolution is awaited. Hopefully, we'll have that RNS soon - sasa.

Greenhills - like Noloss, TDT and many others on here and on iii, I've been in this for ages and am old enough to know the risks here v the rewards; the 'seasoned' holders don't need to be continually berated for holding a positive view which they feel should ultimately prevail. Your 'crusade' against AIM companies 'fleecing small time private investors' is sanctimonious claptrap - sasa.

That large 'trade' was not a trade but a 'squaring of the books' / 'uncrossing trade' denoted as 'UT' - sasa.

Don't post on here very often but you need to be careful with your allegations of AMC being 'one big fraud scheme', Ducatti - that's libellous and on a public forum, too! So, you're down on your investment, like me and most LTH's thus far, I dare say, so what?; It happens quite often until things pick up again. If they don't, they don't. I happen to think that they will, so what? You obviously find that position right now quite painful (over committed, perhaps?) but there's no need to keep venting your spleen on everyone else all the time - we got the message - sasa.

Agree with that, gotabesirius - the last cash raise was a 1 x 8 rts issue to help with Erskine, if memory serves and that was when they had little cash - not so now and all the more so as the BP cash generating deal gathers momentum. They are rightly proud of their clean balance sheet / no dilution achievement in this mega deal for them and I'd imagine that they'd wish to see it all bedded down before contemplating another acquisition, notwithstanding their stated aim of considering further deals if the right one cropped up... If the approaching Rowallen 'spud' proves commercially successful, that might change perceptions, especially towards the sp ! - sasa.

"2018 is shaping up to be a fantastic year for SQZ" you say, NewKOTB and I certainly agree with that... We might even see a maiden divd announced with the Y/E figs, given the punchy eps forecast by Stockopedia recently, especially if the Rowallan 'spud' proves successful in the interim. Even a very conservative one, say, 3p ps (10 x covered) would afford a reasonable yield to underpin the sp to further advantage. Beyond that, a move onto the main mkt at some point could well be seen, too, so much to look forward to....sasa.

There must be the possibility of a maiden divd, too in '18, NewKOTB - They'll have ample cash on hand by then to make even a token payment to enhance the appeal of the shs all the more - sasa

Agreed, DrM - moreover, Serica's income per bbl has been benefitting from 15% higher oil prices for 88% of the time during the 2nd half until the stoppage v the 1st half and if the repairs are completed in early January, those higher, mid - winter, prices are likely to be sustained for a few months. That's particularly true of gas prices which have ballooned by 66% just lately v the 42p per therm recorded with the end June figs. and we're 85% gas orientated after the BP deal commences. Somewhat perversely, we're better positioned now to benefit from the deal than hitherto, I'd say....sasa.

Am well overweight in this, too, Kong (fortunately, so far) - been in for several years but with stats like Stockopedia just released, it is very cheap, even now. Hopefully, there shouldn't be any deal delay; the only slight concern right now is whether SQZ gets a licence to acquire US maintenance equipment should the Rhum field require it. Congress votes on that request (given their tighter stance on Iran sanctions, etc.,) in a few days, I believe; TCW's fairly confident on this, though, as BP got it in September but it'll be nice to get that minor impediment out of the way, anyway. The operating licence is under UK / EU jurisdiction, of course and they're opposed to more tightening, so all appears to be on track on that front... Assuming everything goes according to plan, the sp seems well capable of getting to 100p or more, short term and then some; for expedient reduction purposes, your guess of 120p - 150p range seems reasonable, I'd say. if Rowallan proves successful, then even that might look a premature move! We have a nice problem to ponder, though - sasa.

Thanks for relaying that, Laice; it's the first decent assessment I've seen on SQZ since the BP deal. The forecasts are really impressive and the stats, too - a prospective multiple of 2 at todays price and a PEG of .03 - now that's really cheap - sasa.

Beware the likelihood of y/e loss taking by the Fund mangers; they always analyse their individual performances as the year draws to a close, chucking out the duffers (who wants to be associated with such dogs?) / reinvesting in some winners to put a gloss on the performance figs in good time - it's called 'window dressing'... Ergo, buying right now might be on the 'ground floor' but not yet in the 'basement'! I'm holding off, pro tem, fwiw - sasa.

Echo that request, realdeal - sight of that would be very helpful - sasa.

Scott - You can't relate BP's multiple to Serica, as it's an international SuperMajor attracting global interest, whereas SQZ is a minnow (albeit a very attractive / cheap one) presently residing in the AIM backwater. A P/E of 10 would be more appropriate here - have been in this for over four years now and am delighted that the potential is finally coming to the fore with a further significant re-rate from this deal on the cards from here - sasa.

Echo that view, Vladimir - for an ex chairman / founder giving that reason for getting re-involved directly looks ominous to me, the inference being that the F/Y results are likely to be well short of what's been suggested. This cheap share might now just get cheaper while anxiety persists; remember, too, that tax loss selling might gather pace as the year draws to a close (instos don't like being involved with failures like this IPO and prefer to clear out the duds in good time) so an even lower sp seems more likely from here - fwiw, sold all mine, first thing - sasa.

No probs, gotabeserius - this is 'cheaper than chips' currently as is plain to see and must be the most defensive / overt value 'oilie' on AIM by some way, imv.....sasa.