Member Info for sasa43

Broker notes / Research reports on Serica, post the BKR licence news?

After the deal was announced last November, Stockopedia put out a very well researched piece on the transformational effect on SQZ, indicating a p/e of 2 or so and a PEG of 0.2, if memory serves, with the sp then around 66p.

Much has changed since then, of course, not least the near 50% rise in oil / gas prices, increased ownership of Bruce and Keith via Total on the same terms as the BP deal, etc.,

Not being a subscriber to Stockopedia, I cannot get access to their impressive analysis, unfortunately; if they've updated their work already or will do so shortly, would be great to know what they think about SQZ's valuation metrics / TP now. Any such links on here would be welcomed by all - sasa.

This is irritating, of course but nothing more than that in the overall scheme of things now...

Chrysaor, who operate the pipeline, I believe, must be keen to get the resumption underway, asap - at least it won't unduly take Serica's attention away from getting to grips with the much 'bigger fish it has to fry' henceforth - sasa.

and justly so, after days good news and what lies ahead - well done TCW and the team - sasa.

Hi dunderhead - just seen Saratoza's latest and checked the earlier RNS - you're both right about that - 40 day 'spud' in December, so result likely in January - sasa.

Hi dunderhead - I thought that the last RNS on it stated that early Nov was the start of the 40 day 'spud', so mid Dec was the likely revelation time. Have been away for the past fortnight, so am trying to catch up - will check back on the RNS when I have a bit more time...sasa.

Echo that, Saratoza - all looking good; anything from Rowallan is 'bunce', given our stake in it is a 'free carry', as you say - sasa.

Hi dunderhead - yes, that's right, after allowing for the 40 day 'spud' time envisaged. By mid December we should know the initial outcome. Erskine resumption confirm next up....sasa.

Hi Tommy - interesting post; would that 'biggest oil find data analysis' remark to you by your chum be referring to Rowallan? Presumably so and the 'spud' gets underway next month, so fingers crossed - sasa.

Hi aimto - just been busy with other things of late and only now catching up...

Your post sums up my assessment here precisely - to consider challenging RY at this very late stage, bearing in mind the increasingly positive outlook for Ni sulphide in particular, would be tantamount to deliberately unseating the jockey as we enter the last lap of this very long haul. If 'you can't stand the heat in the kitchen'...

The naysayers / RY knockers have a case in terms of missed deadlines, financing options possibly, relatively poor PR record, etc., spawning all the frustration we see now but then that's always been the 'baggage' us LTH's here have had to contend with.

RY's clearly an exceptional geologist, with now a very good rapport with the RF and other influential agencies and clearly intends to bring this home to a rewarding conclusion after all the work he's put into it.

I'm not giving up now and it's the investor's choice to make as always - nobody else's....sasa.

There was mention of Rowallan - due to 'spud' in December - free carry for us, don't forget - sasa.

Hi easyp - I was in the mkts for over forty years before I retired, so you're certainly right about that.

A tight mkt / poor liquidity, can work both ways, of course - any good news, especially the unexpected sort, can accentuate the upside where it encourages others to invest (few instos, though, being AIM) as today's positive RNS on the order front, illustrates to a modest degree.

A follow up of further contract awards would greatly assist such efforts here; hopefully, the recent 44p 'low' will prove to be the bottom, so GLA - sasa.

Hi easyp - echo that; hope the latest deal with TFMC will add some 'muscle' to the marketing effort for POS, too and that should give their bottom line a decent boost which might then lead to 'something else' developing, who knows?

It certainly looks cheap enough right now... sasa.

Fair 'do's' easyp - wasn't questioning the value argument here, just the general disinterest in it these days...

Was in this some time ago, as I felt the PosGrip technology was very promising and superior to the competition; breaking into the US 'closed shop' on conventional rig design to gain acceptance wasn't going to be easy and has taken a while but now the realisation that 'metal to metal' casings are best for gas seals especially, maybe demand will steadily pick up from here.

This mornings RNS seems to illustrate this well, vis a vis the methane problem highlighted, so I've re-taken a modest interest in it again; hope that doesn't put the mockers on it! GLA - sasa.

Hi RELLIM - the sp topped out around 91p in January, after Erskine got stuck yet again and the delayed BKR decision weakened sentiment - we're 10% higher now at the 99p closing yesterday, so the odds do favour BKR getting the 'go ahead' with the Erskine resumption already priced in. Not sure whether Crysoar is due to pay compensation for the loss of income to users of their pipeline...

If the BKR deal is blocked, the exercise will have to be re-worked if SQZ wishes to continue with it, so the cash flow sharing as originally envisaged will be much less in that event and Serica will have spent a tidy sum on the transfer of staff / general expenses already, as the prospective operator, etc., (unsure whether any reimbursement clauses apply here) and without any income from Erskine for nine months, their cash resources will be significantly lower by the time of the next figs.

That's the only, albeit significant, negative development in the immediate term I can think of right now. Agree about all the other positives, Columbus nearing fruition, Lomond, too and the Rowallan 'spud' coming up, Namibia etc., they all serve to underpin the considerable value / potential Serica offers BUT the BKR deal going ahead, as planned, is crucial beforehand, given the sizeable cash flows involved / significant re-rate of the sp etc., imv...

Don't get me wrong (have been in this for a long time now with a decent holding) and I remain very 'bullish' but I'm loathe to 'count chickens' over the BKR situation until we know what's what. The decision will either accelerate this or decelerate it in the short run, that's all I'm saying. Fingers crossed....sasa.

Hi RELLIM - can't disagree that the anticipated Erskine confirm is an obvious support factor but as much as this?

Over the past few weeks, the sp has risen some 30% to where we are now and it's been steadily bought each day recently, so either the BKR authorisation is nailed and closer than we thought (that would certainly warrant such a sustained move as it would precipitate a good re-rate even from here) or there's something else behind it - dunno.

Certainly nice to see as we await events - sasa.

If there's so little interest in this share? Many a day goes by with no activity and what volume there is, is paltry.

Mr Van B must be thinking is it worth the listing fee / cheaper to take it private? Gotta be a chance of this one delisting from AIM, if this continues, so be mindful of this possibility, you guys; just sayin'....sasa.

As a result of this steady price advance over the past few weeks...

The imminent Erskine resumption confirm would explain some of the buoyancy of late but the crucial news is the BKR decision, of course. The last RNS suggested 'by November' on this with Rowallan 'spud' news around that time, too - if they're both positive outcomes, the sp should move well over 100p quite quickly. Looking good - sasa.

Hi Joe - as if... sasa.

Hi Joe - Roger that; I, too, much appreciate the input from RedL, Vertigo and TDT, since all three invariably post sober / professional assessments, as I have no specific mining knowledge either. I just get by on my ex - mkt experience and general knowledge of the sector; hence the 'short cut' which I can readily utilise.

It's crude but it's proved sufficiently close to the NPV projections in the event for me, so far...sasa.

Hi speedy - Norilsk's main criterion was 1% Ni grade as a minimum to consider and several million tons of it, ideally.

Well, I'd say that we're just about there on the first requirement and 1.5m - 2m tons of the scarcer stuff we have (sulphides) is getting into the ball park, too. Also, being a 'domestic' asset for them and relatively close to China, etc., must add to our appeal - have always felt that they might well be a contender if we can meet their yardsticks...

Being the world's No1 Nickel producer and with AMC on their doorstep, any approach would likely assume RF approval, so it would just be a matter of price on acquisition if they're interested and even at £1 ps (well under $1bn) would be 'small beer' for them, of course.

With the right stuff we have increasingly in demand, why not?... Just my view - sasa.