Member Info for sasa43

Hi Mommur - yes, 'run your winners' whilst 'cutting your losses' is the way to do it in this game...

Not always easy to do, though, as we all know; the latter is less problematic as exasperation often prompts an exit, whereas gauging the point where a success story seems 'in the price' is purely a subjective exercise.

As in this case, I rely heavily on the stats applicable in trying to determine where full value might reside and on today's rating (p/e of 5 odd) we're some way off that currently. Moreover, if the F/Y numbers for this year come in around my guesstimate of 40p eps or thereabouts, we're presently selling on a prospective multiple of 3 x - so still much undervalued today, to say the least!

Add in all the other 'anticipated positives' ( successful Rhum 3 access / Columbus in operation next year / further operational efficiency / 60% BKR revenue share) and the likelihood of another major deal being announced soon and one has a moving / growing feast here to contend with...

If the BoD do decide to move up to the main mkt at some point and announce a dividend programme contingently, one could make a good case for the sp justifying some 300p or more, imv - hence I'm well 'overweight' in this, too...

Would that my other stuff looked so promising! - sasa.

Who approached whom? Did AMC contact Mr Bowens to assist them in 'getting over the line' or did he himself see a really good opportunity in getting involved with us and contacted RY to assist, ex his IG Copper sale?

Either way, he became a non - ex director with immediate effect and stumped up $200k for his shareholding directly from the Co, shortly afterwards, to join or head up the deal makers already on the team.

He must have liked what he saw / the potential opportunity, otherwise why get involved? I find this event, myself, more encouraging / telling than anything else at present - sasa.

Good question, volcano - dunno, either...

It may be due to some switching into POLY ahead of their promotion to the FTSE 100; dealings as a constituent of it start next Monday (tracker buying anticipated, etc.,) - with both now XD, they're 'clean' to facilitate an easier exchange.

Or, it could be down to some re-balancing by a large holder after their good run of late - either way, if the drift continues, I'm likely to be adding some more shortly, given the greater appeal of HGM v POLY around current, respective, price levels. Just my take, fwiw - sasa.

Hi IANAA - hadn't realised that you were also invested in RRE, so well done there. You'll certainly be more familiar with them than me, then...

From what I can glean, I think the management styles are sufficiently different to almost preclude a merger (one side would have to set the policy) and I doubt whether TCW and Mitch would easily give way to a smaller and less experienced team like Rockrose - hence a T/O offer by RRE would seem the only way to resolve that difficulty if they were sufficiently interested in us but we wouldn't come cheap, imv., i.e nowhere near todays price level. Just my take, fwiw - sasa.

Yep, just seen that wrangle over RRE's cash accruals over there, IANAA - there's loose talk that they might be interested in us (we're both reporting shortly) but I doubt whether our BoD would countenance any deal with them.

Apart from having similar resources now / burgeoning cash accruals, the management styles seem quite different (ours 'progressing purposely as she goes' versus the 'gung ho' approach) and if they lose the right to continue operatorship of the Marathon fields next year, their investment case will be considerably lessened, it seems to me. We don't have that problem, nor the size of their prospective de - comm costs which is a further distinguishing feature in our favour.

Having said that, their CEO is very keen on gas, apparently, rather than oil, looking ahead which is interesting with us having > 80% gas at present and if they need to buy an operator in the event, I suppose it's a possibility... Mind you, we wouldn't come cheap! - sasa.

Yeah, that's good to see; must be due to the winter demand picking up - funny how our constant de-ramper, who is so besotted with it, hasn't drawn our attention to the latest gas price....sasa.

Hi olda - whilst the dividend question has already been mooted by the Bod, I doubt whether they'd reach such an arbitrary decision ahead of another major deal they're looking for.

Having said that, with their earnings coming in significantly higher than last time, as expected, there could be room for both, I guess but we'll soon know... sasa.

I also hold HGM & POLY, Marty, fwiw and they've reflected the renewed interest in gold / silver of late 'cos their results have been impressive with decent divd. increases, too, in contrast to FRES whose last two or three reportings have been quite disappointing, especially the latest RNS which was pretty dire - that's why the difference is so stark.

FRES will recover, of course but it usually takes time for this to happen convincingly; meanwhile, POLY starts trading in the FTSE 100 on Monday, 23rd Sept and a decent boost in the sp is to be expected from tracker demand thereafter - more reliable than FRES in there right now, imv - sasa.

Cheers, ferrotty - sasa.

Thanks NewKOTB - I looked on the SQZ website, too and that was showing 22p odd which I thought was way out, too! - sasa.

My normal source seems to be inactive at present - thanks - sasa.

in the FTSE 100 on Monday 23rd Sept, following confirmation of their inclusion. XD their 20c divd ps today, too, btw... sasa.

Yes, I've always thought that Norilsk was the most likely contender for acquiring AMC, too, drunkinftl - KM is now a major sulphide discovery and the way the world's clamouring for class 1 nickel these days, it's largely on their 'in house' doorstep.

Last year they declared a $12bn programme to invest in domestic production and their latest results were quite good so, logically, we could well become part of that development plan, I reckon; did I read somewhere recently, that Thomas Bowens knows them quite well, too?

Once the 2018 drilling results are added to our 'living' PFS, we could be referencing some 2m tons Ni equiv. at just over 1% (meeting their criteria) as they're also into Copper, Cobalt, Palladium, Platinum, etc., like us and they wouldn't be subject to the 25% limit on foreigners owning more than that of a 'strategic asset', either, of course. Seems very plausible to me... sasa.

Yep and the 2nd half should be better, too, rylidan, as forecast...
Certainly an attractive 'goldie' in this climate with a decent yield to boot! - sasa.

to pick up some of these, I'd say, ahead of their promotion to the FTSE 100 on Wednesday.

Rather surprised, in fact, that the sp hasn't already strengthened ahead of this event - sasa.

No probs, Bayleaf - we just need to get this thing properly funded to bring reality into the equation; with demand for our Nickel sulphide on the up and the new man on board to drive things forward on this front, the prospect of something tangible happening has never been closer - sasa.

The Ni equiv. tons figures include, of course, all the peripheral metals, too, mackab - sasa.

Hi Bayleaf - that's a pretty good effort; My calcs (using the late Wendy Durham's 'short cut' method) come in around those sort of figs, too, fwiw.

She stated that her 5% yardstick was actually quite conservative (she found that a 92% discount off the 'in ground' was her usual approach which proved pretty accurate but suggested the 95% deduction allowed for a decent margin covering the 'unknowables' like pricing variables / forex rates etc., FYI - sasa.

to update the PFS 'living document' don't you think? The $8 per lb used last time was a four year forecast, if I recall and many scoffed at it at the time. A revision now on that basis might utilise a figure of, say, $12 per lb and if RY decided to at last include the 2018 drilling results with that (say,
2m tons Ni equiv. at $12 per lb?) that would have a truly stellar effect on our NPV!

If they're talking to interested parties, that would be impeccable timing, to say the least! - sasa.

Yep, we're a small part of a large band of bruvvers on here, Turkish, as you are, too, if memory serves - 'patience hath' and all that...sasa.