Member Info for sasa43

A poster on the RRE BB has suggested that Serica is very cheap at present and Rockrose might pay a premium of 20% over SQZ's current price in an attempt to buy it.

I agreed with him that Serica is very cheap right now but they'd have to offer around double that to stand any chance / be realistic about it, imv! - sasa.

Agreed, Rookie - Serica is very cheap right now but RRE would have to offer much more than 150p ps for it; it's on a pp/e of only 4 x at that price - would have to offer a lot more than that to gain traction; more like double, I'd say. Am in both, fwiw - sasa.

Yep, 'steady as she goes' as you say, volcano.

Yesterday's Sunday Telegraph had a good article on Polymetal which is well worth reading - a similar, conservative, approach being adopted here, too, for this latest entrant into the FTSE 100 - their Q3 figs are out on Thursday, incidentally...

Interesting POLY's view on further acquistions for them, I thought; they're not that keen on buying other groups in far away locations in view of the lack of synergy, preferring nearer mining operators where greater economies of scale can be generated.

HGM might feature here at some point, possibly? Just a thought...sasa.

In yesterday's Sunday Telegraph on POLY - a steady approach to making progress with an emphasis on 'under promising / over delivering' in their culture - something I like to see in this volatile business.

The Q3 production figs are out on Thursday which should be encouraging to facilitate the trackers acquiring their requisite holdings, now they're in the FTSE 100 as the largest gold producer in the premier index - looking good, imv - sasa.

Fair 'do's' JA - can't argue with your understandable caution at this juncture.

I don't quite agree, though, that the sp 'will tank' on an unexpected failure to get the OFAC licence extension through on the present attempt; yes, it would initially weaken on the disappointment but looking beyond that (as the mkt does) there's so much more to underpin the price here in the very short term, as you will know better than most, being a large holder for a decade, like me...

Anyway, we'll soon find out vis a vis its initial impact on the share price. GLA - sasa.

The OFAC licence renewal RNS is due anytime now - within the next fortnight, certainly...
Serica has already confirmed that they've complied with all the requirements of it and thus expect to get the extension again. The sp is naturally a bit drifty until the decision is confirmed but once it's 'in the bag', I'd expect the shs to rally from here by 10p at least.

In the unlikely event that it's not granted for some other reason, it's not crucial for SQZ, just irritating, since they've put back side - drilling Rhum 3 for another six months already and thus there's plenty of time for an appeal to be made and, if successful, they'd have time enough to start the delayed programme, as planned.

Meanwhile, we're now moving into the seasonable uplift period for oil / gas prices, with a 60% share of the revenues from BKR to be had from January onwards, further updates on Columbus coming on stream, no doubt and, of course, news on the next major acquisition they're working on.

If I was a prospective buyer or was looking to add to my position currently, I'd get on with it; the OFAC confirmation should prompt a modest rebound in the sp from here but another major re - rate could rapidly develop on any acquisition announcement; ergo, there's significant risk of missing out on considerable upside around these levels, imv.

Just my take, fwiw but DYOR, as always - sasa.

Echo that, RELLIM - I guess that the next transformational deal for Serica will need to be confirmed / appreciated by the mkt before anything else.

If it's anything like BKR, then that would again have a major impact upon our further potential and be the ideal time to go for a main mkt listing, with a contingent divd policy declared, to boot - nothing the Instos like more in this yield hungry environment than the arrival of an obvious re-rating prospect paying a decent income, too! - sasa.

Hi NKOTB - I think the Rhum 3 licence renewal is needed primarily for US 'intervention / emergency' equipment to be available to SQZ, in the event of an accident - the Americans have the best rescue equipment for such purposes - that's what I've always understood to be the reason for it and Serica should be able to confirm the extension any time now - sasa.

Interesting question, that, upomega...
Serica and Rockrose are, ostensibly, very similar - both cash rich following their transformational deals and each is on the look out for another mega deal, given their burgeoning liquidity. SQZ has more production / reserves right now but RRE has more cash, leaving aside their restricted funds element which is set aside for their decom costs looking ahead - an expense that Serica doesn't have currently. That both are significantly undervalued at this point is a given.

The major difference between them for me is the management differentiation. Serica has a larger team nowadays, following more years in this business and is the more 'seasoned' accordingly and one might claim, therefore, that they're less 'gung ho' than Rockrose at this juncture.

A possible merger would likely cause a management clash, given their different styles, so I think it more likely that one might attempt to T/O the other, if no further attractive asset acquisition from a major is in the offing. By all accounts, Serica has been earnestly searching for theirs of late.

Of the two, I prefer SQZ (after a decade's involvement with it) and lay much store by the quality of management aspect but both should do very well looking ahead - I've recently taken an interest in RRE, too, in order to have an interest in both of them, fwiw...

If you can't back both 'horses' at this stage, I'd stick with Serica, myself, for the reasons stated but that's just my personal view and no recommendation's intended. DYOR etc., - sasa.

Is awaited - to be confirmed by Serica shortly and they're expecting to receive it, since they've complied with all the stipulations of it they've stated, as required, so any day now...

In the unlikely event it's not forthcoming, it only applies to RHUM 3 since that's the 50% portion owned by the IOC; the other parts R1 and R2, are owned / operated by SQZ today. Moreover, as Serica has put back the side - drilling date of RHUM 3 until later next year, there's ample time to appeal against a suspension if it came to that but that's clearly not anticipated.

Personally, I feel the present concern of peeps surrounding it is unnecessary - much more important is the next big deal envisaged. The receipt of the licence extension might put another 10p or so onto today's price but the next major deal, once announced, should give the sp another significant leg up to give peeps something really worthwhile to post about.

That's my take on things at the mo, fwiw - sasa.

Todays RNS is very encouraging obviously, hopefully we'll see more good news like this soon to garner more interest in this very promising prospect - sasa.

Get the Rhum3 licence extension news shortly. Even though the prospective development has been put off for a few months (presumably to concentrate minds on the next acquisition / conserve cash for it, near term) it should give the sp a further fillip, nevertheless.

Can't see why it wouldn't be granted again, given total compliance with the OFAC requirements so far which Serica's already confirmed... sasa.

Hi 1750mk1 - that's exactly what I posted. Any trade before the XD date is a 'cum' dividend deal (with it) involving the dividend belonging to the buyer not the seller who sells with it and hands it over to him on the payment date, whatever the record / books closing dates are but a trade on or after the XD date, the buyer doesn't get it, the seller does, (i.e without) when it's paid.

In the old days, brokers had to claim any dividend due to their clients from the seller's broker to get it but nowadays electronic trading and settlement is instantaneous, so it's automatically determined who's entitled to it and paid out accordingly on the due date - hence my stating that the 'XD' annotation is all one needs to know.

Ergo, Killik's, albeit accurate, long - winded explanation is unnecessary for someone trying to get to grips with the dividend entitlement question, so let's not complicate matters - sasa.

IANAA - the operative thing about any dividend is the 'Ex Divd' date, not the books closing date nor anything else.

If you buy or sell before the 'XD' date it is a 'cum' dividend transaction (with it) - if you buy or sell on the XD date or afterwards, it is an 'ex' dividend trade, i.e without the dividend involved.

Hope that helps - sasa.

Re: the shenanigans afflicting AIM shs v the main mkt (although even that isn't 'trouble - free' these days) but it is more robustly regulated now and with major Insto involvement, it is a truer reflection of what's what, certainly.

I think SQZ has already mentioned that moving up to a premier listing at some point is under consideration, along with introducing a sustainable dividend policy soon - the payment of a dividend obviously enhancing our appeal considerably if contingently planned.

With greater exposure to the investment community / more research etc., it can only be commensurate with our growing significance - post the next big deal, perhaps? Either way, the sooner the better for the Co and its genuine LTH's - sasa.

NI's as much use to this BB as an 'ashtray on a motor bike' as I mentioned before... sasa.

Were it not for the downturn in gas prices, they would have been even better, of course...

As the winter months approach, the demand for gas should pick up again so, with all the other anticipated 'goodies' in the pipeline, the F/Y results should make for a really impressive 2019 - that's when the dividend decision is likely to be confirmed. Only six months to wait for their release...

Meanwhile, the shs certainly offer considerable upside from here - sasa.

Echo that, volcano... sasa.

Hi gwm - all gold miners / pm shs are riskier than conventional 'blue chips', of course, in normal circumstances but we're far from being in 'normal circumstances' these days...

The two principal differences today are the huge debt levels everywhere, ranging from Governments and Corporates, principally and the advent of creating money 'out of thin air' (QE) to cope with it. This digital response, which devalues the buying power of capital in the process, cannot solve the problem; it merely postpones the inevitable consequences of not addressing it - only gold affords a unique counter-balance in safeguarding that over time, as it's sound money and cannot be manufactured...

As you've been in HGM for a while, you've done quite well, quite apart from the decent yield it provides and this one and Polymetal are my two top picks in this mkt currently, fwiw. POLY is due to trade as a FTSE 100 stock from Monday onwards, so I'm expecting additional demand for it for a good while yet (trackers, etc.,)

By comparison, HGM now looks cheap against it, so it's due a decent recovery from here, imv and both are well worth holding in this crazy world we're in these days. Good luck - sasa.

A 'slow burn' until we get into next year whereupon a worthwhile update on this, now fully funded, mine build / first gold pour prospect should stimulate growing interest in this Canadian 'goldie'.

Meanwhile, I've taken the opportunity to add to my recent position in good time, i.e, while it's still somewhat overlooked, pending... sasa.