Member Info for sasa43

Hi Steve - I can't formulate an exit plan until the sp rises significantly from here; if / when it does, the reason for it doing so would drive that aspect for me.

I know you've been in this as long as me. Fwiw, my 'low digit' range would be 10p+ to 30p, I suppose, the mid - range 30p to 50p odd and anything above that would approach 'fair value' and represent total vindication of all our patience.

If we only saw the low range with it seemingly sticking there for a while, I might sell half my holding and run the rest 'for free' but everything hinges on the nature of the upturn and what might portend beyond that.

That's my general take on the tactical side for me at the mo, anyway - sasa.

Being over £50k down here after 10 years or more, rhmcinty, even a low double digit sp outcome would be welcome in removing that and putting me nicely into profit to boot!

I suspect that most of the LTH's on here would be relieved at seeing that, too, although a high double digit sp is what I've always hoped for and would be warranted, given the huge unrealised
value this share represents, as my posts have highlighted over the years...

How long have you been in AMC out of interest? - sasa.

Hi flex - A couple of years ago, I e-mailed the Co, suggesting that they might consider employing a research house to cover their progress / widen the investment case here and thereby assist with a more realistic rating which I thought was warranted back then.

TCW promptly replied that 'we do not pay for research, given the likely bias perceived by many who might read it - we rely on our own achievements to speak for themselves with should be reflected by the mkt over time' - or words to that effect.

Well, the BoD has certainly achieved that since then, much to their credit! - sasa.

Quite understand your frustrations with this latest development, Crazy, like the rest of us...

It seems a bit of a 'curate's egg' situation to me; on the one hand, it's positive that a new buyer has invested over £1m in us at this delicate stage (the money coming into the Co's coffers, like TB's recent involvement, rather than facilitating another Riverfort disposal) but at such a discounted price, which wouldn't have been available if it went through the mkt.

Another positive aspect is that two new investors have now got involved (connected?) and I'd infer that neither would have done that unless they saw here what we do and that their investment is considered quite timely on their part.

I entirely agree that the identity of the new outfit should be disclosed under the mkt rules for transparency reasons but if it's not for now, then an NDA might be in place, pending...? Intriguing, certainly but I'd rather see something possibly underway, at last, rather than languishing with nowt to report with the limited money we had just slipping away.

With just about all of us LTHs 'under water' for a long time now, we're pretty much a captive audience but if something is afoot, at last, at least a better exit than now might be forthcoming; hopefully with the sp well into double figures soon, or even a low double digit number in the event to allow most of us to exit this long running nightmare without loss - sasa.

Hi Mommur - only a 1p inaugural dividend? That would be covered over 20 x on last year's eps and the present cover could be much higher than that on this year's numbers when released next March.

I'd guess at somewhere around 5 ps for a maiden divd, maybe more, if it was accompanied by a contingent plan to move up to the main mkt (putting it on a similar yield as Rockrose right now) but if the next big deal is announced very soon, it could be pared back or deferred to help the financing of it, of course, unless they can secure another self - funding BKR type deal which was an exceptional achievement - sasa.

Hi KRSS - I'm not knocking POG, per se (I was a LTH in it pre the IRC hive - off a few years back, fwiw) and a reasonable run up in the gold price should certainly 'lift all boats' etc.,..

When that happens, though, I'd expect the gold funds / trackers of the FTSE 100 to major more on POLY now that it's a constituent in there rather than speculate in the 'second liners' like Petropavlovsk where further evidence of a sustainable recovery is required.

POLY's steady rise of late, i.e since their promotion, testifies to that. GL anyway - sasa.

On the published resource to date, solstace (1.55m tons Ni equiv.) the NPV works out around 135p ps but that excludes the 2018 drilling results which have been touted as being another very successful outcome, so we might be looking at, say, 2m tons Ni equiv. when they're finally published which works out approx. 175p ps. NPV.

As outstanding as the potential value here is, AMC is almost out of cash now and needs either temporary financing to keep going or better yet a commercial funding deal to make things happen - it's going to cost quite a bit to finance the road build, unless state support is forthcoming (given its isolated position, although relatively close to the Chinese border) not to mention building the mine itself / other infrastructure necessities - my guess would be approaching $1bn all up, if no RF assistance. However, the NPV calcs (only my cribbed short cut method) although variable depending on the TS option or OS alternative, etc., are very compelling, however you slice it.

The LTH's on here have lived with this extraordinary value anomaly for yonks. The cash requirement to comercialise the huge asset the Co owns has always been the problem - with the promising outlook for Ni and Cu now, one would like to think that if AMC's ever going to see this realised, it's likely to be very soon.

Hope that helps and that we get some really good news shortly after so long - sasa.

"Chalk and cheese' these two, KRSS.

If POG hadn't almost gone bust a while back, it had the serviceability of its borrowings like POLY, produced as much AU as POLY does, pays a decent dividend and recently got into the FTSE 100 like POLY then, okay, there would be similarities - both having POX ops is hardly worth mentioning in the circumstances...

Just sayin' - sasa.

Roger that, RELLIM - I know what you mean! - sasa.

of the latest drilling report - looks increasingly positive to me, so I've bought another 10k shs at 35.40 while this remains 'under the radar' for now.

Will likely pick up some more on quiet days ahead of momentum building in this as mining gets underway late next year - sasa.

Hi RELLIM - not quite sure what you're driving at here...
All I'm saying is that if Serica changes its successful acquisition model by going after an outfit largely based upon a prospective reserves / production forecast, then that's a departure from the norm for them.

The price / terms agreed, if confirmed, will obviously be crucial in determining whether they might alter the fundamentals here, for me, anyway - that's all I'm sayin'...

I always welcome others' views and comment with my take, too, if necessary - sasa.

Echo that, RELLIM - there's a huge difference between buying existing production with potential (extending asset life + cost efficiencies) and buying low production now with the HOPE of more to come a few years out - the latter's the reverse of Serica's policy to date.

If they do opt to be more 'cavalier' with such a move, I'll be closely reviewing the terms involved as the fundamentals here might well be at a turning point. Don't expect them to adopt such a sea change, though - 'If the model ain't broke, etc.,...' - sasa.

Roger that, Asa - if only... Let's hope this turns out okay in the end - sasa.

Hi Asa / 'sharpeyes' - fascinating stuff...

Yep, they were wild times for sure, what with North Kals / Hill 50 / Nth Flinders etc., truly casino - like and unlikely to be repeated nowadays - many would say that's just as well!

Do you remember the Tasminex scandal over there, too? That was the antithesis of the 'Possie' phenomenon - run by a guy called Bill Singline. His name said it all in hindsight! - sasa.

Hi SHUFFO - no tips on the trading front, I'm afraid (as not into that myself) - just the investment case here which remains compelling, imv - so the only 'tip' would be to 'stick with it' unless the fundamentals change...

Tend to agree with Flying F's comment re: Zenor and the value argument; fortunately, I wasn't involved with Xcite and hope that SQZ's supposed interest in them is only academic, amongst others they're supposedly looking at.

Given their close association with BP another BKR type deal would be very nice - sasa.

Well, I suppose that's a possibility, upomega but they'd have to assure the Americans that any consideration would just be added to the 'frozen' cash currently held in escrow for the IOC, otherwise OFAC would immediately revoke their licence - could be a bit too risky if Serica's action here was misunderstood / the US wasn't sufficiently convinced...

Anyway, buying the other half of Rhum wouldn't represent much of another 'transformational' deal as SQZ has intimated it's looking for, imv and they haven't got into the difficult bit of side - drilling it yet, either.

Their deferral programme here suggests the need to concentrate on something more profound upcoming soon, I'd guess. Just my take on that, fwiw - sasa.

Hi SHUFF0 - As the OFAC licence renewal was largely anticipated, I thought that a 10p rise or so, upon confirmation, would be about right. Well done, the BoD, anyway...

The next 'big deal' confirmatory RNS should really get this going once again so, as before, 'Patience hath..' and all that - it 'aint difficult with such good management in situ - sasa.

Hi NewKOTB - frustration is understandable in the present climate - there are always deals to be had in any industry and then there are the really good ones; the latter being scarce by definition and that's what Serica's after... sasa.

That's a bit much, NewKOTB - vis a vis " No news nor even a sniff of a follow on, rumours or otherwise since our BKR deal almost two years ago" - give 'em a chance.

The BKR deal was only sanctioned to proceed last October (albeit agreed in principle in January '18) and they've been bedding down the entire since. They're conservative with their model and rightly so, although they have reiterated that their search is for value accretion rather than size, per se, vis a vis the next big deal, so the selective approach reflects their management style which has served us well so far.

The cash hoard will be put to good use when the next deal is confirmed; meanwhile, it's a nice 'problem' to have while we wait.

As for the static sp over the past year, one needs to remember that oil & gas prices have generally declined this year, especially gas, as we all know and post the Rowallan disappointment to some extent and now the OFAC licence nearing its expiry date, this years backdrop has been somewhat uninspiring, prompting caution but I reckon the sp has held up quite well in these circumstances.

With such appealing stats underpinning the sp and news due on the above events at any time, further updates on their likely dividend policy / mkt promotion plans etc., patience is all that's required at this juncture, imv.

Alas, that virtue in this game is so often forgotten nowadays. Just my take, anyway - sasa.

Yep, I remember that Poseidon stratospheric price performance well, too, Rosewall - I was in the mkts as a 'blue button' in those days (price runner / reporter for my broking firm on the LSE floor) and was amazed to see 'Possies' move from 250d odd (old pence, of course) to ultimately £124 'bid not offered' at one point after six months or so - talk about the 'Wild West' back then!!

Don't expect a repeat of such here but just a fraction of that ultimately would be nice...sasa.