Member Info for sasa43

Well worth reading his articles, as you say, Red...
Have seen similar before / elsewhere, of course but he explains his views very well. Being the immutable unit of exchange in a crisis, physical Gold remains unique, imv and second best are the gold miners who, at least, generate some income - sasa.

Unfortunately, upomega, there's no OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) to assist here - maybe, an OGEC arrangement should be created, although such Agency influences are already declining these days, due to higher US shale output, abundant Russian and ME gas supplies, etc., - sasa.

With the oil price now declining on the back of the tragic corona virus outbreak and gas prices on the floor, now would be the time to strike a good acquisition deal, especially for those groups currently stuffed with cash like us and RRE. I'm sure this isn't lost on their BoDs...

Hopefully, it won't be too long before the dreadful bug is contained / an effective vaccine is discovered to neutralise it and be swiftly distributed, a la SARS and the ebola outbreaks in recent times.
Thereafter, energy prices recovered as mkt confidence swiftly returned, so this should soon be the experience here once more - sasa.

But if the repairs to the caisson are completed within the anticipated 2 months time line, the 20% hike in our production share this year will offset the production shortfall in revenue terms. Just need the gas price to strengthen at some point to dispel the present gloom; when might that be?

Obviously, nobody knows but with the 2019 results being declared, along with the maiden divd announcement in April, the sp looks very oversold at this point. Selling on a multiple of under 4 x right now (on my forecast of 30p ps being achievable, fwiw) the value argument is hugely underwritten here, imv - sasa.

Hi RedL - thanks for the commentary on your preferences, risks notwithstanding...

I'm in HGM, too, (have been invested for ages) as they seem well managed and pay a decent divd as well, which is handy.
Agree your hopes for their kekura project into the bargain - sasa.

Gold's held up better than AG of late and although FRES earns more from the yellow metal than silver these days, it's still mainly regarded as a silver play but the figs will be crucial, imv, in determining the sp trend in the short term. GLA - sasa.

Welcome aboard, Saxondale - explorers / wannabe miners are always the most risky of stocks but if they succeed with their developments or they're acquired beforehand, the rewards can be well above the norm, of course...
This one looks very appealing right now with the latest RNS grades, etc., / progress with the mine build and the first gold pour on schedule, adding further grist to the prospective mill , so GLA who've 'taken a view' here - sasa.

'It never rains but it pours...' as they say - the tragic onset of this deadly epidemic in China cannot help EAH to regain its poise, short term, surely? I still have it on my 'watch list', for now but this latest development with all the human misery it involves sadly renders this a greater risk for the time being, with China in virtual 'lock down' for now ...sasa.

Hi Kums - I was in POG, too, until a while ago but now prefer POLY as a 'main' producer, given their recent elevation to the FTSE 100 - if AU moves further ahead, the trackers will need to concentrate on this one, (with FRES no longer in it) along with the Instos wishing to step up their involvement in pms - that's my reasoning, anyway... - sasa.

re: a possible move up to the main mkt which I e-mailed them about - "it's an ambition at this stage with nothing set in train to date but all holders will be informed if and when..."

So, apols for me having got ahead of myself on that one, smokie but the aspiration is encouraging and the prompt response to a holder appreciated, too - sasa.

Hi smokie - I thought that I'd seen that anticipated move up to the main mkt mentioned 'in despatches' a while back but haven't been able to find it, so have e-mailed the Co today to see whether I imagined it or not.

Will let you know what they say about it when they reply - sasa.

Or put another way, as the mkt has it - 'the short term trader is a long term loser' - quite apt, that, imv - sasa.

You may well have answered your own question there, Blue - Eyes. A very wide spread is often prompted by a large order - fill underway or the MMs fear that something might be close and they don't wish to be caught out too much or both!

They way to put an end to all this is to get off AIM and onto the main mkt which the BoD are actively considering we're told. It does take a while to arrange, given the need to step up compliance with the more rigorous regulation involved / extra costs of a primary listing etc., but it's underway...

Meanwhile, holders just need to be patient currently, as has been said - the value and potential here is considerable and self - evident... sasa.

Yep - I'm steadily doing the same here, KUMS. Quietly bought some more this morning while this remains overlooked; that's gotta be the way to do it... sasa.

Hi JA - the quicker we get off AIM, then and onto the main mkt, the better...
Just checked the order book - you can pick up at least 10k shs at 127p right now, if that helps - sasa.

Any predator could make an approach for us, upomega, at any time and then you'll get your major uplift much sooner. Given the quality of our management, though and our prospects as things stand, I suspect a handsome premium above todays price would be demanded to succeed.

Given we're on a prospective p/e of 4 or so (subject to confirmation in April) an offer would have to be at least twice the current price to warrant acceptance by the BoD I'd say... Premier? Unlikely, given their major debt overhang and the BP deal might not yet go through; RRE, on the other hand, would be a better contender with all their cash accruing even faster than ours and no debt, like us (and AA prefers gas, too, apparently) but there would likely be a management clash with this one, as I've intimated before, so a 'hostile' bid might have to ensue.

Or SQZ, being the larger entity by mkt cap. right now might have them in their sights? Who knows?One thing's for sure, though - both shs look exceptionally undervalued at this juncture and are equally 'pregnant with possibilities', imv...
Ergo, I'm happy to be invested in such success stories and am just sitting back to see what happens from here. GLA - sasa.

"Not a lot is going to happen until next year", you opine, upomega...
Come on, in April, we'll get news on a number of things; confirmation of the audited f/y figs with, doubtless, a punchy forecast for 2020, the divd declaration, probable updates on Columbus, Rhum 3 work over, and other material reviews along with possibly further news about promotion to the main mkt and, of course, at any time, an RNS on the next big deal when it's finalised.

You really are a very impatient fellow - yes, the sp might drift a bit in the meantime but so what? Can't you wait, at least, until then? 'Aggressive inactivity', I call it and that's all that's required at this stage, imv - sasa.

Patience, patience, upomega - it's getting there and a whole lot more looking towards April and beyond... sasa.

Roger that, NewK - as you rightly say, becoming an income generator, too, will attract additional investors in this low yielding environment and, all the more so, if and when we move up to the main mkt - hopefully, we'll learn more about that in April as well...

The Instos are often drawn to a 'go - go' stock with a decent yield applicable - sasa.

FWIW, Jack, I'm going for 5p ps as the maiden divid to be announced with the 2019 figs in April.
This is based upon the published 22p eps for 2018 (4.4 x covered) when we were on the initial 40% share of the BKR revenues. The 2019 figs. coming up are based on our 50% share of those revenues + a good contribution from Erskine (out of action for 9 months last time) v lower gas prices for 2019 but part hedged at 35p per therm.

Taking these factors into account, the eps could be 30p ps or more for 2019, giving ample cover for a 5p ps distribution and costing some £13.75m - quite conservative, imv and would be in line with SQZ's 'sustainable' divd policy mentioned.

The shs would then yield 3.6% at 138p (roughly akin to RRE's forecast yield, interestingly) and, bearing in mind we're on a 60% BKR revenue share now with op. costs impressively down to $13 per boe v $18 boe hitherto, I doubt whether such an initial payment would crimp any major deal they would be considering. Just my take on this, anyway - sasa.