Member Info for sasa43

Agreed RustinC - we seem to be entering the 'capitulation' stage now, i.e when even the stale bulls start liquidating their positions - could be a helluva 'bear squeeze' coming up shortly.
Any sellers / shorters now, prior to next weeks results need to be very careful, imv.

If the likes of RRE with a huge cash hoard / expedient hedges in place and Serica, too, for that matter (they also have a substantial / growing cash pile and a very low $13 boepd op. costs in their favour) can't cope with these conditions, nothing can!

Ergo, bears beware, I say - sasa.

Don't apologise for that useful tip re: SNG on here, Henners; we all need something else to focus upon with all this negativity surrounding us; will certainly take a look - thanks.
I've recently taken a modest punt on a virus testing kit supplier, NCYT on AIM, fwiw, which seems to be in the forefront in this area - very volatile at present but if they get FDA approval (they already have EU accreditation for it) this might yet do very well - pathetic bb on there, though.

Nice to have a possible 'blue' stock in the list, if it does. Hope springs... sasa.

Hi Joe - yes, still here and 'well under water' like the rest of us.
With the mkts everywhere panicking over the virus affecting just about everything, rationale has gone out the window, especially as the crisis isn't so much a financial one but a health issue jeopardising the economic outlook currently, too but it will pass, e.g SARS, Ebola, Mers, etc which took a terrible toll previously but have been overcome - just need a vaccine to be discovered to deal with this pernicious corona strain and hopefully we will see one announced quite soon...

As for AMC, they've now got the cash (thankfully) to get through to the next stage and with two experienced deal makers with impressive records now on board, I'm more hopeful here than have been for quite a while.

Yes, mkt sentiment generally needs to turn for the better, of course but if that coincides with a major development for us on here, the 1p sp we see now will be left well behind and couldn't we all do with that!
Nice to see you still on here, too, Joe and GL to you and A, too - sasa.

Hi RELLIM / NewK - we didn't have the FTSE 100 in those days (that came in in 1984 if memory serves) with the FT 30 being the 'blue chip' index back then but it was 'jaw dropping' nevertheless and quite amazing how that psychological move changed sentiment on a sixpence. The bears' fingers weren't just burnt, they were roasted!

The story is quite true as I was there in the thick of it, as I say - sasa.

Hi NewK - the worst collapse in confidence I ever experienced first hand, fwiw, was the '72 - '74 bear mkt where prices fell -73% in 18 months (I was on the mkt trading floor in those days) so todays rout seems a bit tame by comparison...

However, what stopped the rot, almost instantly, was a group of substantial Instos (with the backing of the BoE) then ordered their brokers to stand in the middle of the trading floor and shout out: 'We're buyers and will take on all sellers' and that was the turning point.
Although we don't have 'face to face' dealing here any more, I dare say the same thing could be put together behind the electronic trading arrangements / bots we're into nowadays, if things get too much out of hand - such a dramatic / unexpected intervention just snapped the mkt out of its near 'death wish' back then and prices roared back.

Might history repeat itself at some point?....sasa.

When peeps panic, rationale goes out the window! At least one professional outfit is looking beyond the immediate outlook and exploiting the incredible value on offer here by adding to their position; how long will it be before others 'look back in anger' that they didn't have the gumption to do the same, I dunno...

What I do know in this paranoid climate, though, is that many consumer related businesses with significant overheads / borrowings to service are the most vulnerable companies for the duration whereas those without such liabilities are the most appealing in stark contrast.
Moreover, those having a lot of cash on hand will get through all this turmoil relatively unscathed and the mkt should soon recognise this when it regains its poise and, especially so, in the case of the few undertakings which are still 'growing' their cash piles - like Serica and RRE. Despite the absurdly low price levels of them just now, value will out in the end - it always does...

Hopefully, RRE's figs. out next week and Serica's a fortnight or so later will illustrate how hugely oversold these are now and what amazing bargains they represent when the mkt is finally able to look up from its navel gazing!

That's my take for now, anyway - sasa.

Yes, that's my thought, too, wellwell, if PMO's deal falls through. Anything's possible in this climate and AA's revelation in the interview that he's been holding discussions with lenders, if need be, displays a sensible approach in getting his 'ducks in a row', should an opportunity present itself.

RRE must be amongst the 'top tier' borrowers if it came to it, given their huge / growing cash pile with no debts nor bond holders to worry about, thus enabling easy servicing of any required 'leverage' to pull off a major acquisition.
Few other 'oilies' are in such a good position currently - sasa.

Echo that, dick - peeps seem to forget that next month's RNS will reveal the 2019 Y/E outcome, i.e pre - the latest oil price drop / coronavirus recession threat.
Yes, despite the gas price protection under the BP / BKR deal (35p per them and hedging) SQZ might adopt a more circumspect approach surrounding the maiden divd announcement looking ahead but a 5p declaration would be covered 4 x on the 2018 earnings achievement and possibly 6 x the eps to be reported next month.
Whilst the BoD is noted for their conservative approach in running the business, the ample divd cover already in place and a $13 op. cost per boe in the present climate, seems more than adequate for a comparatively modest outlay of approx. £14m, as you say.

Meanwhile, the completion of the caisson repair work some three weeks ahead of schedule announced yesterday in getting us back into production was impressive and on a better day in the mkts, the sp would have responded more positively - sasa.

Hi Marty - yep, I have to agree that, in the present panic, peeps are selling anything to raise some cash (taking profits even in the obvious beneficiaries of mkt anxiety - gold, to offset losses elsewhere) so it's 'tin hat' time currently.

Dunno how long this will last, of course but gold producers have to be the most resilient counters / amongst the first to bounce back when things calm down. Meanwhile, 'If you can keep your head while others lose theirs, etc.,' springs to mind... sasa.

Roger that, Marty and also your trading 'discipline' / notwithstanding the difficulty in gauging POLY's trend, timing - wise, etc., at present. I don't have that problem, as already mentioned; only if the gold run looked to have convincingly peaked would I consider switching into something else as that would then lead to a potential change in the fundamentals, quite apart from sentiment...
I see that the FED is up to their shenanigans again today in trying to suppress gold's latest advance but the case for AU and AG in this climate remains very sound, I reckon.

Like you, my other stuff is taking a beating in these mkt conditions with some real bargains now on offer, like Serica and Rockrose in the O&G sector - they're exceptionally cheap right now (both awash with cash with no debts on their balance sheets) - the latter, incidentally, is now trading at a 30% discount to its cash in the bank with the business in for nothing!
Serica's also 'going for a song' - if they're of any interest to you, check out the RRE and SQZ bbs for some info. if you're not too familiar with them - sasa.

Littleredfox - the decom costs are already allowed for in the A/Cs (these have been pushed out further through efficiencies anyway) so the unrestricted cash on the balance sheet is the figure to concentrate on - this roughly equates to £18 ps currently.
With the current sp being so low at £12.60 odd that's a discount of 30% - like buying £1 cash for 70p with the business / further potential thrown in for nothing - cheap or what!!

I think this sudden retreat in the sp is more likely to do with peeps taking profits here and elsewhere (like on Serica, too) to offset mkt losses elsewhere - the growing anxieties in the mkts recently seem to coincide with that.
When these calm down / the next acquisition update is forthcoming, the recovery here should be quite dramatic, I'd suggest - sasa.

Echo that, Bingo - this has been asleep for quite some time, while gold has been on a bit of a tear, of late, so some catching up is well overdue; maybe that's starting to get underway now...

Also agree about the much higher AU price now applicable to comfortably accommodate the anticipated increase in capex - the next figs. should be good enough to see the sp regain the previous 'high', at least, I'd have thought - sasa.

Yes, it's very unsettling to see Serica / Rockrose, etc., falling back currently but it's all on paper, that's all, in this panicky climate.
Remember why we bought into these issues; they have oodles of cash which most others don't have, no debts and exceptional prospects, along with low production costs, especially SQZ.
Just chill until the news flow resumes... sasa.

Hi BTB - I suppose it's a case of 'moderation in all things' being the ideal really, vis a vis physical ownership v pm miners.
One final aspect on the risk of private holdings of physical if it became illegal again - whilst it would be relatively easy for the Govt. to introduce such a bill if they were so minded ('in the national interest', as usual) it would be much more difficult, if not impossible, to legislate against ownership of mining companies and their shareholders, being legal entities in their own right, etc.,

If things got really out of hand, pm producing shs should be safer on this score with the better quality issues amongst them paying useful divds, too... sasa.

I agree with your overall take on the appeal of pms, both physical and the producers of them, BTB, viewed against the debasing of fiat money, especially now, in terms of its declining buying power.
Hadn't heard of this Mexican Beer Virus until you've just mentioned it, tbh, so that's a concern for FRES, I suppose, to offset the good news today of them going back into the FTSE 100 next time.

Holding Physical, in lieu of mining stocks, after a good run in them, seems sensible at such a juncture but hoarding the stuff, either domestically, or via a reputable depository, brings its own problems, does it not? In the 30's, for example, gold stocks outgunned almost everything back then, especially after the US Govt prohibited peeps from hoarding their AU bars / coins, etc., and thus it was almost impossible to profitably trade them out for fear of being reported for breaking the law!
Also, there are holding costs to pay if a bullion house holds your physical for you, not to mention their records of your purchases from them and thus the third party risk that that entails - ironically defeats the 'nobody's liability' uniqueness of it. Moreover, if you hold your bullion at home, there's the risk of theft, so insurance costs should figure too, I guess?...

I'm not against holding some physical, per se; merely pointing out some of the practicalities associated with it, especially if you amassed a large hoard of the stuff, after successfully exiting the miners; you could always hand your treasure trove over to your kids ultimately, though, I suppose...

One can only hope, in this modern era, that owners of physical will not be outlawed by the authorities as they were back then, if the entire system breaks down but given the 'control freaks' in Govts these days, I wouldn't bank on it if 'push comes to shove'...

You did invite posters' comments on your prospective tactics, so this is my 'six penneth', on the notion, fwiw - sasa.

Hi Marty - you and me both, then, re: POLY and HGM; have been in the latter for quite a long time now and being decent yielders, too, adds to their appeal for pm exposure, imv.
I'm not into trading at all, unless the fundamentals change or there's an unexpected spike to put the sp out of whack with those fundamentals - unlikely here unless rumours of a T/O emerge in HGM's case. Meanwhile, both seem well managed operations...

Was in CEY some time ago now but never liked the Govt's involvement with it where they took 50% of their earnings / always a risk of CEY being relatively subservient to their whims, I thought; don't know whether that still applies today though.
Was also in FRES for many years, post its listing here but became a bit disillusioned recently with their penultimate figs. and moved on / still not impressed with their latest results either, tbh and prefer to see if their current forecasts of better things ahead for later this year and in 2021 transpire. Have it on my watch list for now, preferring POLY meanwhile, given their higher yield, too.

AS for PUR, this is the only 'wannabe' miner I have these days but the potential looks well above average in this space, given they're fully funded now with their first gold pour on track for the 4th Qtr of this year.
So far, their drilling results have been very impressive, so fingers crossed these continue, although an approach for them in this very productive mining region of Ontario at some point wouldn't surprise me at all... Just my take on things, fwiw - sasa.

Yep, quite agree, Marty - these results are at the top end of my expectations and this is the one to be in if pms and AU, in particular, continue to strengthen in this anxious climate.

I like HGM, too - as my 'second string' in this space - both look well positioned to continue progressing from here, imv - sasa.

Hi carvegyber - not upset at all nor do I need to chill - too old for that; it's only money, after all.
I used to advise peeps on their investments (not now, though, since retirement) having been in the mkts since the 60's - some would say, 'too long'!

Was just trying to relay my comments on the relatives here (FRES v POLY) if pms have another run where an old favourite of mine, FRES is seeing falling AU / AG production again whereas POLY continues to report the opposite; ergo, a better prospect to benefit from another upsurge in the pm space, for the time being, anyway - that's just my view, fwiw - if it's not worth much, then fine...

I'm not into trading at all, I'm afraid, so the ultra short term profit you've cited is academic in my case. I'm a firm believer in the old mkt saying that 'the short term trader is a long term loser' in the end - hence my 'modus operandi' of being an old fashioned investor - clearly a dying breed, these days...

Anyway, GL with running on with FRES for now as I said - sasa.

Yep, couldn't disagree with that, NewK, except a merger doesn't often involve a big payday for shareholders, unfortunately. I think the next big deal for either of them will be the most productive outcome for us PI's outside of a T/O but their different management styles / AA having 30% of RRE already might well preclude that sort of outcome, short of going 'hostile'...

Am very happy to be in both RRE and SQZ right now with their respective cash hoards to hand, augmenting their strong, debt - free, balance sheets while they scout around for another tempting target to exploit in this febrile atmosphere - sasa.

Yes, really, carvegyber - I've been involved with Fresnillo for well over a decade now and know it quite well. I decided to switch into something more appealing last year when their mishaps started and got into POLY instead - just compare their charts since then.
My observations back then were posted to be helpful, as was this one earlier today - if you find that a laugh, well that's up to you; I'll just keep FRES on my 'watchlist' for now and compare the relative performances later on. GL here, anyway - sasa.