Member Info for sasa43

Very understandable in you being 'lopsided' in Serica's favour in this climate, RELLIM - I'm in exactly that position, too, at this point, even though that does run counter to my normal approach.

Fwiw, I justify that to myself thus: In this extraordinary climate, there are only four areas worth considering in the investment arena currently - stocks with a lot of cash / no debt, gold producers, very resilient supply chain beneficiaries and bio / pharmas, especially the 'bug fighters' right now.

I've halved the No of my holdings to concentrate on these situations - don't know whether the strategy will pay off, in the event but, as I anticipate the mkts will likely fall a good deal more before this is over, I think the usual diversified approach might best be put on 'hold' for the duration...

Just my take on the outlook for the time being, anyway - sasa.

Hi olda - "just so long as this over capacity doesn't last too long", as you say - that's the rub, of course! If only we could better gauge that risk / the threat to banks, too, owed oodles of money from the producers now operating well below the cost of production as the induced recession deepens, etc.,

The over supply side could easily be fixed upon genuine agreement to dramatically curb output but the longevity of the impact of the coronavirus on the world economy is quite another matter...

Cash on hand becomes ever more crucial, as you say and those few operators who have it 'in spades' on their balance sheets and no debts, either, should be selling at a decent, if not hefty, premium to their peers while the oil price outlook remains so shaky...

Serica heavily qualifies on the premium rating argument that I feel is warranted, obviously - sasa.

Hi dick - echo NewK's appreciation of that summary of the near term futures mkt in oil, following yesterday's mayhem; bracing stuff, to say the least!

It's as well Serica is 80% gas in this climate and, so far, protected by the BKR deal terms / hedging etc., but the trauma yesterday might well induce a much more conservative approach regarding the outlook for this year when SQZ reports very shortly.
Whether that will jeopardise their maiden divd plans remains to be seen, of course, even though I still expect the 2019 Y/E Nos to easily facilitate a worthwhile distribution.

If ever RRE was toying with the idea of approaching SQZ (merger or T/O) now must be the time for them to be seriously considering it, surely? - sasa.

Information 'overload' RELLIM is hugely better than being under researched; the latter being likely to lead to Carey Street if you're not careful, so keep up the good work. 'Knowledge is power' and all that - sasa.

It's good to see such positivity in these mkts, RELLIM - makes for a very pleasant change; liked your last bit, especially! - sasa.

Hi RELLIM / NewK - thanks; yes I had a good time on Sunday with more cards / phone calls than I expected which was very nice.

No figs. from Serica so far today then - we've just got a few days left to wait, as per the RNS on that front and I remain confident that they'll be good with the divd question answered, one way or the other.
Whilst they're bound to be circumspect re: the outlook for this year, I'm comforted by the very low op. costs of $13 boepd in todays uncertain climate, augmented by the increased BKR revenue share / absence of decom costs (other than what they themselves have undertaken) so they're clearly much better positioned than most other O &G producers right now.

Ergo, happy to remain well 'over weight' here with the shs so undervalued at this point and hope for some pleasant surprises before too long! ATB - sasa.

Hi Dartron - HGM is my 'second string' to POLY, fwiw - I only have these two 'goldies' currently and think that they are amongst the best producers right now, with HGM reporting further progress yesterday and a third interim divd, too - sasa,

The 2019 figs. should be out tomorrow, olda, if they're keeping to last year's date but in April, anyway, as they've already RNS'd - sasa.

Hi Fallingk - it's picked up most of yesterday's fall so far this morning, as you'll know...
The exd date is scheduled for 7th May (42c / 33p odd) and is due to be paid on the 29th May - all looks pretty set fair, especially if AU extends its run - sasa.

iamrich - there's an old mkt saying (which I'm sure you know) that 'the short term trader is a long term loser' - would that there were more investors on these BBs than just punters and then they'd make decent money on their 'hard earned' more often than not... sasa.

Hi Henners - echo that.... It has picked up a bit of late but I'm not getting too excited yet! ATB - sasa.

Agreed, iamrich - you just need to 'take a view' on stocks like this - if you're convinced that they have something very desirable in a climate of acute need, like we're seeing now, then one just needs to be patient and let the sp reflect that over time (more than just five minutes, that is) which it should. 'Patience hath' ... and all that - sasa.

Echo that, silver - very shrewd timing by our CEO to wrong foot the doomsters / shorters, etc.,

Good post by Intrepid, too, re: the MMs - I was in the mkts yonks ago but not on the jobbing side; an interesting perspective on that side of the fence, nevertheless... sasa.

For steadying the ship this afternoon - it was needed with all the negs. on the rampage...
Did the same earlier with my 15.38pm post which seemed a necessary reminder with quite a few newbies in this now.
Fortune favoured the brave & the stalwarts today (bought more myself at 363p) - tomorrow should be quite a contrast to today's gyrations! GLA - sasa.

or you don't. The positives are too many to list - if you've read many of the informative contributions by several knowledgeable posters on here (VanV & others etc.,) and DYOR, too, you should look beyond your navel, given the enormous potential and take advantage of this unexpected opportunity.

I've just added to my position an hour ago, fwiw and expect to be rewarded very soon, probably post the next RNS. If you're not convinced about such potential, then there's no point in getting involved, so clutter up another bb elsewhere - sasa.

Hi BtB - just checked and you're right - FRES is now back in the FTSE 100 after their exit a few months ago - sasa.

Okay, Fallingk - thanks for explaining that; wasn't familiar with the lingo - more familiar with the stock... sasa.

Hi BTB - good response to that article Tornado posted - I generally agree with your counter arguments, fwiw...
I prefer the strong AU producers rather than holding too much in physical, as private hoarding of the latter can be 'outlawed' by Govts, as they were by the US in the 30's - more difficult to deny producers of this unique asset, though, as they're legal entities in their own right.

I used to be in FRES but now prefer POLY, as the only FTSE 100 constituent today - if gold has another good run (and there's every reason why it should in this chaotic environment we're all in currently) I'd expect the the Instos and especially the trackers to opt for POLY more so, given its status in there. Just my take, anyway... sasa.

The 'accelerated book build' to raise £14m + to bring this into being commercially, was completed within 24hrs - a very positive sign for us holders. Instos don't normally respond so fast but they did so on this occasion, along with the BoD, leaving the offer well oversubscribed, too.

In these cautious mkt conditions, that was quite something; clearly they liked what they heard / saw and didn't hesitate to get this off the ground, asap. So, while my medical knowledge is minimal, I've been in the mkts long enough to know what we should infer from that - sasa.

'This is one bad ass share,' you say, Dartron - don't get that remark, tbh, especially as you wonder whether it's worth adding to your recent position where you're up 100p ps already? Care to elucidate? - sasa.