Member Info for sasa43

Hi IAmNot - thanks for that; yes, given the location / potential of these two NS operators (Gas / oil & Oil / gas) they're almost unique in this space it seems to me - was in GKP a long time ago now but the susceptibility to interference in that part of the world certainly put me off staying involved there.

The only difference between these two, I suppose, is that Serica's more vulnerable to an approach at some point, so such an event would likely solve the 'when to sell' question for the LTH's but it still leaves the redeployment dilemma - hence the question I posed.

A nice prospective problem to conjure with, though... sasa.

Hi gareth - interesting quandary you now have, then. You'll be very fortunate to find anything comparable to Serica's performance for you over such a short time frame, so what do you plan to do with the proceeds? Just sit on the uninvested cash for now?

I ask only because several of us on here, doubtless, have fairly chunky holdings in SQZ, too. The problem arises that when we think it's prudent to realise a sizeable gain, where can we find a good alternative(s) offering such value / further upside as this (p/e 5 - yield 2.4%, ultra strong balance sheet etc.,) ahead of a clutch of positives in the pipeline, too? I've yet to find one myself...

RRE is a good comparator, certainly but anything else I might have missed elsewhere?
Genuine question / all ideas welcome for when the time comes - for me, anyway - sasa.

Echo your useful reminder / synopsis of what we've got here, Bloodshot, while the sp languishes right now.
The latest weakness of late might well be due also to Vatel selling some of the shs received from the conversion arising from the early debt repayment (up to 812k of those issued to them) - the remaining 72.5% of their allocation are 'locked up' for another 9 months and 18 months almost equally, respectively.

Ergo, no concerns on this score once they're done on the initial tranche. Having taken them at EU 0.70c, one can see why the appeal of an immediate large profit was so tempting for them while running on with the rest under the agreement.

The shs are very cheap now to say the least, imho - sasa.

Hi Mickoc - Roger that and understood...

Just a final rejoinder: quite a few investors, including myself, reckon the main mkts are becoming over priced now, bearing in mind the likelihood of a slew of a major deterioration in earnings (covid driven) forecast by many Industrials from the 2nd qtr onwards (Rolls Royce intimating that recently) so be especially vigilant about that risk from now on - just sayin'...

Good luck, anyway - sasa.

Hi Mickoc - sorry to learn of your experience with this and the pain of seeing the sp drop so steadily. Hindsight, though, is a useless tool in this game which just breeds frustration if you're on the wrong side of it. Like rubbing salt into a wound...

Next time, suggest you do your own investigations of the pros & cons of an investment, especially a volatile 'death or glory' stock like this one on the junior mkt. Once you've done that and you're inclined to invest a sum (that which you could afford to lose and only that, if it goes wrong) why not move steadily into it in phases (£ cost averaging, it's called) and that way, you'll sleep easier and have more control over the outcome which suits you / your temperament. This is just my opinion with a practical alternative approach if it suits you (your decision) and not meant as advice at all.

Personally, I regard SNG as being in the 'glory' category potentially and, like most of us right now, I find the sp attrition irritating but, because I haven't over extended my commitment, I can still regard the research I've done / the risk / reward ratio, etc., as justification for staying with it - only if the case deteriorates significantly (i.e bad trial outcomes, etc.,) would I change my mind.

Paper gains / losses, in the interim, are academic until you crystallise them, so patience is required; sadly a virtue almost forgotten these days, which can be expensive when it's lacking.

Just my general take, that's all and better luck next time - sasa.

Hi Red - thanks for your more detailed comments and useful calcs. on this.

I, too, think that the EGM will go through because of the quorum already arranged and I infer from that, that this is a prelude to something really tangible in the making for AMC.

I certainly don't think that it's just a ruse to dilute us substantially this time, to pay the BoD / running expenses, etc., - it seems much more significant to me, like bringing KM into production, perhaps via a J/V (inc. own smelter usage) and, hopefully, an 'off take' deal, to further boost the economics of the project. On that basis, the EGM request must succeed.

It's only my guess, of course but it's worth almost anything to break the deadlock of going nowhere in recent times and offers a chance, at least, of putting a much higher value on the equity than we see now, if that's what lies behind it...

Hope so, anyway - sasa.

Hi Red, would welcome your comments on this upcoming request to double the Authorised and its implications for what might lie ahead for us all.

Nice to see PUR going well, too, btw - sasa.

Quite decent vol. today (over 1m turnover) to maintain this week's momentum, inc. a 600k trade to account for a good amount of it - shows as a sale but more likely a buy in support of the above - nice to see, anyway... sasa.

Quite right, Nolupus - this was an expedient fund raise and necessarily quick, too. The conventional route would have taken too long and been more expensive for the company and it's history now, anyway - sasa.

Hi Henners - generally agree with your view on this latest RNS, fwiw...

Seeking an EGM to authorise a doubling of the shares in issue is a profound development - the reason behind it, we're told, is to 'acquire an income producing asset or instrument' to strengthen the company if the opportunity arises and, at this stage, it's time limited to November's AGM; round about the time the TEO is due to be completed (for which we're sufficiently funded) which is intriguing, to say the least...

What might that purchase comprise? We don't know, of course but it's interesting that Gipronickel (Norilsk's assaying sub) has confirmed that AMC has a copper concentrate opportunity as well as for their nickel and might Tom Bowens be discussing such a possibility with the Russian Copper Co (who bought his IG Copper company) about such an arrangement? If so, that should materially change the metrics applicable to AMC's worth to advantage.

With Tom Bowens and Martin Habib now driving the company forward that can only be a good thing for us and we can only hope that these 'developments', if real, turn into something tangible for a change.

There does seem to be a lot going on right now and the shs issuance request might involve agreeing to a J/V of some sort or an 'off take' deal which Martin favoured in a recent interview - either way, with us being in the 'last chance saloon' for so long, anything to change the dynamics here must be welcomed by all the, long suffering, 'under water' LTH's, surely...

Ergo, I'll be voting for the motion, hoping that something concrete emerges from it, otherwise AMC will probably have to shut up shop with their humongous asset passing into other hands and that would be really unjust after all this time - sasa.

Thanks, Maccc - certainly a useful watch and encouraging to see such a well measured vid.

There can't be many overfunded wannabe miners in this climate with such a low AISC as they have / approach their first gold pour by the Y/e with such high grades / growing resources (2m ozs. inc. inferred) and now able to contingently drill other promising targets nearby.

The strong Insto support they enjoy is understandable... sasa.

Hi Tom - can't disagree that a decent 'buy - back,' where the sp is considerably below intrinsic value, makes sense. However, SQZ has re - affirmed that it's still looking for an attractive acquisition on a 'value' basis, not for production growth, per se and, who knows, management might well be working on such a proposition right now? In which case, the BoD would rightly be weighing up this efficient capital usage v anything else - i.e, if they could pull off another BKR type deal in this buyers' market, that would take some beating in that regard and certainly eclipse the benefits of shrinking the float, as you suggest.

I've been wondering whether PMO's recent attempt to significantly reduce the price of their agreed deal with BP might cause our 5% shareholder to pull out and, perhaps, show it to us instead and why not? Just a thought, that's all - sasa.

Matt - official figs. are always behindhand with what's currently going on, of course - the forecasts here for a truer picture of progress for this year is what's important.

On the assumption that sales / revenues etc., are now going 'gangbusters' as anticipated, I can't see the sp retreating; more likely moving a good deal higher as the mkt becomes more convinced that they're achieving what they've already alluded to.

Just my take, anyway - sasa.

If the trials succeed prompting a significant enhancement of the company's profile / the sp appreciating, accordingly, any further fund raise requirement will likely be conducted in a completely different environment from the last one.

A right issue or further placing / offering (without dis-application of pre-emption rights) would enable all shareholders to participate in the company's future growth this time (something which SNG's BoD would like to see in rewarding their loyal PI base, I'm sure) and having established itself firmly in the Covid 19 treatment space by then, they'd have ample time to get this away and successfully, too. Just my take, anyway - sasa.

Hi notnow - Lansdowne is basically a money lender and looks to get the money back, asap, to minimise its exposure - nothing wrong with that; indeed, many junior companies wouldn't get very far without such a cash infusion when the conventional sources are difficult to come by - the main appeal is the swift receipt of the cash in a preferred placing, as we've seen here.

Personally, I doubt whether another fund raise is envisaged soon, given the £14m they got from the placing + the £2m odd in the bank at the time, if memory serves - it should be enough to fund the trials fairly comfortably, I'd have thought. However, if things really get going, as we all hope, I'd expect the sp to rise appreciably on the back of those developments and the next funding round would likely exclude the likes of Lansdowne, since more investment Instos should be interested in participating in the significance of the Interferon B nebuliser treatment potential by then.

The first trial results are thus 'key' here, as we all know and if all are successful, SNG should substantially re - rate from todays desultory sp level, so fingers crossed! - sasa.

It almost certainly is Lansdowne, imv, notnow - that's what they do as an important part of their business model. They provide capital when companies are desperate for funding when conventional sources are difficult to come by, like SNG experienced very recently.

They take a tranche of shs, at a deep discount to the then sp and provide a decent chunk of the fund raise, if not all of it. In the latter case, it's known as 'death spiral' financing (eating your own tail, effectively) and such emergency capital providers need to sell their share allocation soon afterwards, to minimise their risk / get their money back, asap, which is what we're seeing them do here, I'd say - all part of the ************** deal in their case.

The investment potential we investors look for is incidental to them. The other side of Lansdowne's business (managing other peeps funds) has been very poor recently, as you say but that's got nothing to do with the lending side - sasa.

Quite agree with that view, Nolupus - a sound strategy. Having a diversified portfolio enables one to have an objective approach where such 'go go' stocks are concerned, rather than be concerned about the day to day sp movements of any one of them

Provided you've done your homework and assessed the potential as best as you can, you simply wait for the anticipated outcome to materialise - that's the difference between investing and punting for the sake of it. Only if the fundamentals change, do I re-consider matters.

As it stands, this one looks well undervalued at this point to me and patience is all that's required, so GLA - sasa.

Quite so, notnow - patience with stocks like these is all it takes but that virtue is so often patently lacking these days.

Investors just need this constraint to realise their initial judgement; traders don't have it 'cos for them it's just a case of 'if it moves, for whatever reason, I'm interested' - they almost invariably miss the real gravy in the end and never seem to get the point, time after time; maybe it's because they don't have the money to stay on board for more than 5 minutes?

Provided SNG evolves into a major success story and it has all the hallmarks of doing so, as far as I can determine, then just sit tight / be patient and let it deliver. Diving in and out of a developing growth story is for the birds, imv - sasa.

On the medical front and have relied on the quality posters on here like Van V & others to assist my appreciation of what we've got here - so, thanks to them...
Having been in the mkts a long time, however, I can say that this leader in the antigen mkt, with its 'gold standard' product, is poised for a decent re-rate very shortly, imv...

The much awaited RNS on ballooning sales / burgeoning revenues and cash therefrom seems likely to be truly transformational if the statement proves as good as expected. Usually, shs rise in anticipation of such, only to fall back again - 'Buy the rumour, sell the fact' is the mkt maxim with these situations but here we have the reverse and that bodes well for this leading 'hot stock' in this very topical sector, after the RNS is out, I reckon. Little has been discounted at this stage.

Ergo, I've just doubled my holding in NCYT today on the above basis and am confident that my timing, if not perfect, is likely to be pretty close, I'd say but that's just my view and always DYOR, of course. GLA and have a nice w / e - sasa.

Serica's xd date is still over 4 weeks away, though, Maverick; a bit early for divd clippers to show up at this early stage, I'd have thought... sasa.