Member Info for sasa43

Hi RELLIM - not sure about that, tbh - I thought that the remedial work in getting R3 producing was deferred by BP to appease President Trump and also facilitate the R3 licence extension being granted to Serica as the new operator, which it was, thankfully.

I infer from that that Serica's purchase of the BKR assets involved R3 in its 'suspended' state and as they now decide to bring it into production, they will bear the cost of doing so and, ultimately, the proportionate decom costs of R3 but it must be well worthwhile bringing that sizeable addition to production on stream if they can... I need to check on the BP cost aspect, though.

Take your point about the forthcoming drilling of Eigg! - sasa.

That made me laugh, TDT... sasa.

Yes, that's my understanding of the R3 side - drill being planned, too, RELLIM.

BP were planning to get into R3 (after some technical problems, initially) when the US / Iranian spat intensified and they expediently decided to defer that operation for the duration.

R1 and R2, combined, account for only 40% of the known reserve, so getting at the other 60% via R3 would be a material boost to production for SQZ - they seem reasonably confident about succeeding in their endeavour, so let's hope they do - sasa.

Hi RELLIM - just seen your post...
It's purely a guess, of course, with so many variables involved, as to what SQZ might earn in 2022 with 100% of BKR's revenues under their belt by then / near doubling of their Boepd, assuming everything completes successfully and on time but a stab at it might be in the 40p eps + area, perhaps?

As for the present divd rate of 3p ps, the final might be increased a bit to, say, 4p ps to make for 7p ps for the full year, covered 3.5 x on last year's figs but, maybe, 4 x on this year's achievements which would still fit in with the BoD's avowed 'conservative / maintainable' distribution policy, I'd say...

If that transpires, a near 6% yield and a reliable one at that in this income starved climate today just adds to Serica's appeal and underscores the much undervalued aspect of the shs all the more
- sasa.

Thanks for that reminder, stuartmich - it's very much a buyer's mkt in the NS currently with both BP & Shell willing to sell their Shearwater interests; after PMO managed to re-negotiate their BP deal on much lower terms recently, any interested party could well drive a hard bargain right now - I wonder who might be in a contemplative mood? - sasa.

Hi upomega - 'serious' offers, yes, the BoD is obliged to report to shareholders but what would constitute that description today? 150p? I doubt that myself, given the present stats (current p/e 4.75 - outgoing multiple 6.25 at 150p) - an exit p/e would have to be around 8 x minimum on the 2019 results issued recently, imv, never mind this year's figs where we're now on a 60% BKR revenue share and 100% in 18 month's time...

With all the other attributes / benefits going forward which have been well aired, any acquirer would have to bear such considerations in mind to gain the BoD's attention and well north of 150p to gain their recommendation to s/holders (say, 250p + ?) and if it went 'hostile', then even more than that quite possibly...

But that assumes SQZ doesn't pull off their own major deal 'out of the blue' which seems to have been forgotten about of late; so, for me, 150p represents but a milestone towards what would constitute 'justifiable value' here, looking ahead, imv - sasa.

Thanks, acaciatan but I was in Indivior soon after it was spun off and, fortunately, sold at a modest profit some three or more years ago - I was lucky in hindsight, given the subsequent problems they've encountered now with the DoJ etc., so no wish to re - engage there.

Much prefer uncomplicated growth situations like this one. I see that you're the most prolific / enthusiastic poster on their BB - too much for me, I'm afraid but good luck with it, anyway - sasa.

Thanks for this link, acaciatan - it seems to support that SQZ is some 50% undervalued right now, i.e 'fair value' being over 200p with which I'd concur, of course.

I do find your enthusiasm for Serica understandable but not your prose in getting it across - no disrespect intended but I do find your frequent postings quite difficult to follow, I have to say. Good luck, anyway - sasa.

Excellent summation of Serica's potential value, RELLIM - agree entirely. The much vaunted possibility of RRE merging or attempting to acquire SQZ needs to take all the plus points you mention into account; after all, 2022 / 3 is not that far away.

Ergo, my view that SQZ is worth a lot more than a possible 1 : 10 offer from RRE currently (more like 1 : 5 around current levels) or, maybe, 1 : 10 when RRE regains the £20 + region. I don't think that ACW / MF would countenance anything below 200p ps right now and, more likely, nearer 300p might see traction gained, bearing in mind the outlook for us with multifarious plus points running for them.

That doesn't surprise me, porl; SQZ is very well positioned, both fundamentally, operationally and what lies ahead with their growth plans.
Nice to see those characteristics recognised, anyway - sasa.

Agreed, shortter - the best way to participate in such a volatile stock is to determine which 'bug fighter' has the best product in the testing space and this is already the 'gold standard' others will try to emulate and then buy a reasonable % holding of your available funds and then just sit tight.

The investment game is simple if you keep it that way - sasa.

Like the strategy which has been mooted on here many times, as NewK says but not the ratio of 10 : 1 - at least not while RRE is around £12 - maybe that would work when £20 + is regained.

I doubt whether ACW / MF et al would be interested in anything other than starting with a '2' given what they've already achieved and their further plans to grow the business. Maybe, a 1 : 5 right now might be an enticement for them to ponder?... sasa.

Yep, KUMS - with PUR's low AISC of just below $800 per oz. that's a helluva gross margin to enjoy once we're 'up and running'... sasa.

OK - fair do's, Rubbish; I see the connection now... sasa.

Surely they have their own BB for that?

Tried to find this PUR look - alike as a comparator but only came up with Great British Brands, some sort of local oil co. Happy to stick with PUR, anyway... sasa.

Echo that sentiment, Henners and especially liked the last line, which made me laugh! - sasa.

Hi Mommur - yes, Investment Trusts have several technical advantages over the unit trust equivalent / open ended funds generally, as you'll already know, of course...

Their one 'mini - demerit,' if anything, is that they're not that liquid to deal in on occasions but then, when the mkt declines, a 'drip feed' approach is probably no bad thing, anyway! - sasa.

Hi gareth - you have, indeed, been very lucky with your recent selections / timings and we all need some luck in this game, of course...

Given your apprehension about the short term outlook for the mkts generally (with which I agree, fwiw) keeping a good cash cushion in hand for a while seems sensible.

As to where one might reasonably invest some cash defensively, short term, is difficult to gauge - one such area worth considering, I guess, are precious metals producers; like your earlier Randgold involvement.

When peeps become anxious, they often turn to gold as a relatively 'safe haven' and with all the phenomenal Q.E going on nowadays, fiat money is continuously being devalued. I prefer the producers paying decent dividends rather than the 'wannabe' miners currently, although one of the latter, PUR, the upcoming Canadian miner, is still 'under the radar', imv and well worth a look, if you're interested. ATB - sasa.

Something's underway, at last. Non - binding 'offtake' in hand now and a 'binding' agreement next, hopefully soon, to lend credibility to the forthcoming TEO. Go Adam!

An encouraging start ahead of the EGM vote for all LTH's to feel a bit more comfortable, I'd say... sasa.

Ps Julian, although Lou's left the BoD, I think he's still retained as a consultant to AMC, if memory serves...

Hi gareth - just seen your reply while I was responding to IAmNot...

You've done very well with your Serica involvement thus far, as you readily acknowledge and you still have a good position to benefit from any further appreciation, so congrats on that...

Diversification is invariably prudent, especially when mkts are very high, as they are now. So your strategy is sound looking ahead, imv - I wouldn't be too keen, myself, to rush into global trackers right now, for that reason - when mkts fall, just about everything else does, too.

As a retired stockbroker / investment manager, I'm no longer permitted to give advice these days and certainly not on a public BB like this where your circumstances are unknown to me and you might not welcome my general comments, anyway...

Just a pointer, though (not advice) where domestic 'collective vehicles' are concerned - it's usually better / safer to go for the Investment Trust rather than the Unit trust route in gaining wide spread exposure (i.e the quoted closed end fund rather than the unquoted open ended alternative) to avoid the risk of being 'gated' against selling (a la Woodford) when you want to.

Hope that 'tip' is useful, nevertheless, if you weren't aware of the difference and good luck with your investments henceforth - sasa.