Member Info for RoxburyHouse

Hi everybody, couldn’t decide whether I should share my research with you guys because I am no longer invested but based on the fact that good discussion boards should be balanced I thought I would.

Please understand though I have no motive unlike our resident deramper who constantly bashes this share mentioning the dreaded letters ‘RI’ at every opportunity for his own personal interests so he can buy in cheaper.

Drawing comparisons with MoonPig and FunkyPigeon a couple of months ago I invested heavily in Card (£80/90k).

I staked the local Card Factory shops out but wasn’t happy what I was seeing so contacted their head office (by email).

My concerns where as follows.
1. No CEO (at the time)
2. Everyone queuing outside the shop and hardly anybody in it.
3. No mention of the website in the window?
4. The App and Website were poor.

I quickly befriended the lady who was in charge of all the shops.

I provided photos and screen prints and even took a video of how ridiculous the queues where when the shops were empty and got reassurances that my emails where being taken seriously and getting forwarded to the right departments.

A month passed and I never heard anything - in fact still haven’t.

The appointment of the ‘new’ CEO was the final straw. A golden opportunity to appoint someone fresh to take the business on line but no they got some old has been who managed Clinton’s into receivership and even mentioned it in the RNS that announced his appointment?

That was the final straw, I sold up.

These where my (ignored) suggestions :-

1. They need to immediately add the dots and the letters co.uk to every single one of their shop names.
2. Every shop window should advertise the website. Even the ‘sorry we are closed because of Covid’ message in their doorway doesn’t mention the website?
3. When there is a queue outside the person with the billboard at the doorway needs to step outside the door to allow an extra person in ‘the count’.
4. They need to throw more resources at the Website and test it more thorough. It’s poor.

One of the shops I visited was quiet so I spoke to a group of the staff at the till and not one of them had used the website? One had tried to download the app but (Like my iPhone 6) their device was not compatible?

Ok they are my thoughts (and I have more). I have made my position clear that I am not invested. As you can see I have put a lot of effort into this and can see a future in the Card Factory but only when their shops (and staff) stop looking at the on line (even their own) as a competitor.

Finally, whenever I exit a share it tends to go up because I’m usually wrong! I hope everyone here does well I really do but so frustrated with this Company. It’s a sleeping giant with so much potential that needs to wake up - quickly.

Just over £100,000 invested in this now so my opinion is biased but I think a BIG yes.

They are doing everything right IMO.

Did you see the last topic on News at 10 last night?
Apparently the world has gone mad for jigsaw puzzles.

Everyone is stuck in doors doing art and crafts.

The Works on line is booming!

Shops will be open soon and the World will go back to normal and this will re rate you watch.

Guys we have had a broker upgrade!

FJG had agreed to keep his virus updates to one thread (which is reasonable request) so let’s move on.

Ndn you don’t come across as a bad person so make your next post constructive and we all forgive you!

Onwards and upwards, no more ‘Day Trading’ for me which good because I was absolutely rubbish.

Hi Antonagis and Welcome.

This is a great discussion board with some extremely knowledgeable posters. Some are in the industry now and others ex (saga) employees at a senior level.

We also are lucky enough to have experts from the insurance sector and the stock market in general.

Each and every one is prepared to share their knowledge but it’s a delicate mix and should be respected.

If you have something relevant to say then of course everyone wants to hear but keep it to the one thread please.

The jury is out to see if you are just doing this to wind people up and you are who I think you are but time will tell.

Giving you the benefit of the doubt I wish you well with your Saga investment and hope that along with the rest of us here you will not be disappointed and hopefully rewarded handsomely.

Based on the fact that the majority of Saga Customers are in the at risk category don't you think it might be sensible to target the “fit at 50” brigade (if such people exist) for the first couple of cruises before the fatties are allowed back on?

Check out the following chart.

https://images.app.goo.gl/fpChhpqgf3UjzXkXA

I’m ‘healthy’ (for a 60 year old) so I’m good to go!

All a bit tongue in cheek of course but out of curiosity ....where are you?

Well spotted draft good to see The Works are advertising.

Not sure if any of you are registered to receive emails but I get one daily and they are really good.

Check out the last two below.

Really impressive.

Easter is coming...
http://links.info-theworks.co.uk/servlet/MailView?ms=MTIwMzE4NzkS1&r=NDkzMTA5MDM0MjU3S0&j=MTY5MDU1MzI5OAS2&mt=1&rt=0

Play and Learn with the kids...
http://links.info-theworks.co.uk/servlet/MailView?ms=MTIwMDEwMDcS1&r=NDkzMTA5MDM0MjU3S0&j=MTY3NjEwMzA3MwS2&mt=1&rt=0

Oh I also keep a version in date order.

Mcap.......Share Price.
£1.35B n/a <<2004 Sold by Sir R to Management
£2.1B 1504p << 2014 IPO (£1.85).
£840.0m 602p << Jan-Jun 2019. (Average).
£560.0m 400p << July 2019-Jan 2020. (Average)
£168.0m 120p << Feb-Oct 2020. (Average).
£370.0m 265p << Rejected PE Offer (33p old price)
£314.2m 225p << Oct 2020-Jan 2021. (Average).
£435.0m 312p << Last week! (21st Jan).
£344.8m 247p << ** TODAY ** (29/1/2021).

Guys, thought I would share some of my research notes and the reason why I am so heavily invested.

Although the figures are accurate (IMO) they should only be used as a guide.

Any glaring errors please let me know!

Thank you.

Mcap.......Share Price.
£168.0m 120p << Feb-Oct 2020. (Average).
£314.2m 225p << Oct 2020-Jan 2021. (Average).
£344.8m 247p << ** TODAY ** (29/1/2021).
£370.0m 265p << Rejected PE Offer (33p old price)
£435.0m 312p << Last week! (21st Jan).
£560.0m 400p << July 2019-Jan 2020. (Average).
£840.0m 602p << Jan-Jun 2019. (Average).
£1.35B n/a << 2004 Sold by Sir R to his Management.
£2.1B 1504p << 2014 IPO (£1.85)

Notes.
1. Unless stated otherwise, all share prices above are post consolidation (or equivalent based on the MCap).
2. MCap = Share Price x No of Shares.
3. Number of Shares now. 139,594,769
4. Shares BEFORE Dilution/Consolidation. 1,122,003,328

Yes Rogue I did sell some of my EQT today and it’s all getting piled into here. I’m only trying this day trading malarkey to build up my stake in SAGA. In my head I have this theory that i can sell some of these when things are quiet and pile it into a share that is going up then sell them and pile the £ back into here to end up with more SAGA shares.

The reality my friend is very different! Ha ha

To be fair because EQT has gone up I think I’m going to end up even which means I will be trying again soon.

Not for the feint hearted though for sure. Just under 50,000 of these now.

For those of you who are considering doing a bit of day trading I thought I would let you know that just before the market closed I managed to buy some more of shares I sold last week for £2.53 in 2 lots for £2.66 and £2.71 !! pathetic. I must be the worst day trader in history. I’m rubbish.

People always tell you about their successes but they rarely tell you about their failures. It’s really really difficult to time it right.

Oh well I’m going to try and buy the rest back tomorrow. ffs honestly man just don’t do it.

Couldn’t make it up. I sold 2 tranches last week for £2.53 and a third for £2.70 and as per usual when I try to be clever the share price shot up to £3 +. Can’t believe it’s cone back down again. I bought the third tranch above back for £2.64. No profit of course and a complete waste of time, just want my shares back! Ha ha

I’m hopeless at day trading, wish I could learn my lesson and stop doing it. It’s impossible to second guess which direction the share price is going.

2 guys here sold at £3.05 and £3.10 though. Was that you? and did you buy back?

Anyhow a little drop to £2.53 would be appreciated please and then let’s get back into £3+ please.

100% the Saga board have discussed this option for sure. Obviously not an option at the moment but the way the vaccine rollout is going we (the British) are going to be good to go before the Countries we visit. People are desperate to go on holiday. Each time the cruises are pushed on a month Saga has to contact every Customer and I would be amazed if they are not being asked this very question.

If I was on the cruise and staying on board then I would like everyone to!

All IMO of course.

Hi tubbs
Everyone has got different investment strategies so it’s tricky recommending shares.

I tend to go for higher risk/higher gain shares and if there was one stand out one in my portfolio it would be EQT(E).

If that one is not to your liking then check out PHEG.

Good luck but most importantly DYOR!

Great thread guys and a big welcome to the new guys who have recently joined - you have backed a winner here.

Fascinating reading when BB and VW chat about the insurance. Like 2 dogs barking, I haven’t got a clue what they are saying half of the time but weirdly find their posts so interesting.

Saga played a blinder announcing first that a vaccine is mandatory to travel with them. They got another mention on the Andrew Marr show this morning. It looks like “Vaccine Passports” are going to be the norm and Saga will be remembered for being first.

Hi mb.
Businesses will fold because of Covid and store closures but survivors will prosper and go from strength to strength.

What this figures tell me is the The Works is in safe hands.

I am not expecting and big swings in the share price today either way.

When the shops reopen (which they will) then this will re rate for sure.

Until then we just have to be patient.

Interim results for the 26 weeks ended 25 Oct 2020

Fri, 22nd Jan 2021 07:00
RNS Number : 5317M

All good considering the shop closures.

Obviously have to read the full RNS to get a complete picture but these are the bits that stand out for me:-

“LFL sales increased 10.6 per cent. for the 19 weeks ended 25 October 2020, significantly ahead of the Board's expectations”

“The Group's strong financial position helps mitigate against the effect of future lockdown restrictions. Much improved year on year liquidity with net cash at Period end of £11.3m”

“Despite the lower sales in the Period we were able to deliver an improved profit performance, including a positive H1 FY21 EBITDA, with an Adjusted loss before tax of £4.1m versus a loss of £7.8m in the previous year. “

No sleep tonight Rogue. lol.

I have got serious £ invested here and contemplated pulling some out before close of play but reminded myself why I invested in the first place so stuck to my guns.

Too late now!

IMO the closed shops are already factored into the share price so I am expecting amazing on line sales and a re-rate to 40p+

Ha ha I can dream can’t I?

Steve/Hedgehog if it makes you feel any better I sold 3 tranches at £2.53 and £2.69 to buy back in cheaper! To make matters worse I bought into EQT who have since gone down!

Just keep laughing at yourself that’s what I do (lots to laugh at) and providing overall you are up then that’s all that matters.

I’m guessing everyone who holds Card also owns The Works?

Can’t believe this discussion board isn’t ‘buzzing’?

Am I the only one who can see the pattern?

Interim results and trading update
Wed, 16th Jan 2019 07:00
RNS Number : 1944N

“Good progress with new web platform and online fulfilment partner, alongside delivering propositional changes to increase average item price online to drive profitable growth. “

Full year Trading Update
Thu, 7th May 2020 07:00
RNS Number : 1897M

“The strong demand online has continued during the lockdown period, with sales up more than three times the equivalent period last year........the Company is working closely with its third-party fulfilment partner to expand its online fulfilment capacity both in the short-term and to support increased volumes through peak trading over Christmas.”

Preliminary results - 52 weeks ended 26 April 2020
Thu, 27th Aug 2020 07:00
RNS Number : 2606X

“Further development of our multi-channel proposition through development of a new customer website (successfully launched in July 2020) and product proposition changes to increase average product price and drive profitable growth. 
· Increased online capacity to meet very strong demand during the lockdown period (sales increased over three times on the equivalent period last year) and reduced marketing and promotional activity, step-changing the profitability of our online channel.”

Half-year trading update
Thu, 5th Nov 2020 07:00
RNS Number : 3047E

“Experience gained from the lockdowns earlier in the year have been valuable in preparing for the further lockdowns or other restrictions which have now been implemented in the UK and in Ireland and which have or will require the closure of most of our stores, most notably, for a four week period in England. Furthermore, in anticipation of the continuation of very high online sales, we have invested in increasing online fulfilment capacity. However, and, notwithstanding these preparations, the latest restrictions will have a material adverse effect on sales, although the effect on the Group's profit and liquidity will be partially mitigated by the extension of the Government's furlough job support scheme.
 
Due to the Group's strong financial position on entering this period, the Board is confident that the Group has adequate resources to support the business, whilst retaining headroom within its banking facilities”

Summary
The Works have done everything right in my book. They have renegotiated rents with landlords, closed down loss making shops, furloughed staff and beefed up and improved their On Line presence.

I believe in this Company so much so that I have a 6 figure £ sum invested. I must also add though that everything I touch lately has turned to sh 1 t so please do your own research.