Member Info for RoxburyHouse

Great thread so far guys and interesting.

Hey we could organise a shareholder cruise maybe next year? Now that would be fun!

Please join in and let us all know a little about yourself.

As a bit of light relief :-

“RoxburyHouse”

Im a serial “self builder” and Roxbury house was named by my kids from Roxbury Boulevard after a family holiday to LA!

What’s in your name?

Hi Pian very true but you must admit that whenever anybody here talks about the “old price” they are not talking about the pre-consolidation price they are talking about the pre-dilution price!!!

Hi again PC

Banburyboy can answer this question better than me but if I copy below a previous post it might help.

£140 million (net) was raised.

The BOD paid off £40m of revolving credit and £64m of an existing £134m loan, extending the balance of £70m to May 2023.

Balance cash from above is £36m.

In addition £100m undrawn revolving credit facility remains available until May 2023.

I’m not sure how much pressure there was for Saga to pay off the loans but however way you look at it its got to be good news.

In answer to your question IMO we have gained massively by the full £140m! Paying the loans down means our outgoing are smaller and the £36m will keep the ships afloat for at least 6 months.

Banbury et al will answer this question better than me!

Yeah apologies Pokerchips I hadn’t spotted your post until afterwards.

Batfast I have repeated myself many times in my inimitable didactic manner (whatever that means) about this simple calculation because it clearly isn’t that simple!

Everybody is still “simply” dividing (or multiplying) by 15 which is ridiculous IMO so when I see this I flag it (and always will).

Pokerchips.

Opinion vs Fact.

Your Opinion (and you are not alone) is that 33p old money is £4.95 at today's price ie x 15.

My Opinion is that it is closer to £2.64

So let’s look at the facts:-

Fact1
The offer of 33p was made when there was 1,122,003,328 shares.
This means the PE firm valued Saga at £367 Million.

Fact2
Today there is 139,594,769 shares in circulation so simple division equates to £2.63.

These are facts they are not my opinion.

The good news though is that IMO this share is ridiculously under valued because since that offer, £140 million has been raised and injected into the Company.

To accurately find the “old price” you divide by 8.12.

Hi TFE it’s each to their own as they say. I personally love to do a comparison with the old share price. I also agree with you though for some it has no relevance because it is the past.

I draw comfort from the fact that an offer was made to buy the Company for 33p (old price ) which is roughly £2.64 today’s price.

Its reassuring to know another £140 million has been invested into the company since then!

We are sat on a gold mine guys. IMHO of course.

Hi Rob sorry to hear about your loss and I am going to say something really contentious here that for sure that some people here won’t agree with but here we go....

Seeing red everyday grinds you down. I have been there.

What I did was sold up and re-bought back.

Yes you lose out on the spread and the dealer costs but seeing a small red or even a green made me much happier.

If you time it right you could be better off. Not advice, I’m simply saying it made me feel better and when the share price recovers (which IMO it will) then it will hardly make a difference.

Good morning Castle.
50% uplift in share price as soon as the Government gives notice that cruising can resume for sure.
Another 50% when they actually resume ie pull out of port.
We are sitting on a winner here guys and with this and WRKS I am finally going to shake free from my KissofDeath name!
Well done Smorty 2 house points.

Really good question DGIU and without doubt causes confusion at first sight.

1.1 billion shares increased to 2.2 billion after dilution and then these were consolidated 15:1 to 140 million.

The consolidation alone would not put off serious investors because they do genuine research but so many PI’s do not. I’m amazed how many people here still “divide by 15 to find the old share price” - completely ignoring the extra billion shares.

Just for a bit of fun let’s pretend that the shares had never been consolidated after the MASSIVE dilution.

£2.46 would therefore be 16.4p.

If a newbie came along and asked what the old share price was what would everyone say?

Smorty this is my “dirty little secret” and definitely the one to watch. My second biggest holding closely following Saga. Results due mid January which are not going to disappoint especially since everyone is stuck at home doing jigsaw puzzles and being “creative” with stuff purchased on line from The Works. Shops were really really busy before they hibernated.
Kind Regards
The KissofDeath ha ha

Spot on Smorty and a perfect time to reintroduce the table!

Column A. CURRENT Share Price
139,594,769 (140 MILLION) shares.
(Consolidated 15:1)

Column B. Share Price AFTER Dilution.
2,093,921,536 (2.1 BILLION) shares.

Column C. Share Price BEFORE Dilution.
1,122,003,328 (1.1 BILLION) shares.

Column D. MCAP.

A. B. C. D.
80p 5.4p 10p £112.2M
96p 6.4p 12p £134.6M
112p 7.5p 14p £157.0M
129p 8.6p 16p £179.5M
145p 9.6p 18p £201.9M
161p 10.7p 20p £224.4M
177p 11.8p 22p £246.8M
193p 12.9p 24p £269.3M
209p 13.9p 26p £291.7M
225p 15.0p 28p £314.2M
241p 16.1p 30p £336.6M
257p 17.1p 32p £359.0M
273p 18.2p 34p £381.5M
289p 19.3p 36p £403.9M
305p 20.4p 38p £426.4M
321p 21.4p 40p £448.8M
337p 22.5p 42p £471.2M
354p 23.6p 44p £493.7M
370p 24.6p 46p £516.1M
386p 25.7p 48p £538.6M
401p 26.8p 50p £561.0M

Notes.
1. Sorry the column headers don’t line up.

Hi NRL we used to have a good laugh didn’t we. Loved Dimi and WG and several other characters but it was always going to end and no one can take away our memories.

AA shocking behaviour from the BOD absolutely disgraceful. I will keep my fingers crossed for you also.

Selecta! You are one of the lucky ones to be top slicing AML Well Done!

Mastermind mmmm No thank you but if I did it would actually be my third time on TV! If you are ever bored google Sun Sea and A&E and Broken Jaw. One of the very first episodes so most probably not on now but I was the father who got the dreaded call to go to Majorca after my son was beaten up. It’s funny now though and they caught me crying so it was a scoop.

Got to keep making today count guys. Take risks and make it memorable. I have made and lost a fortune and then made it back again. Would have been considerable better off if I had had more patience with AML and yeah selling up with hindsight was a bad move but I am still having a hell of a ride!

Oh PP you would laugh if I told you what I have been upto since I stupidly sold all my shares here!

I am now officially known as the KissofDeath (thanks Selecta!)

Dunnie is right I am jinxed!

Still chasing the dream like everybody else here but actually have a “portfolio” now so have calmed down! Ha ha

Hi everybody Headmaster calling in for a rare visit.

Really really happy (and a little envious!) for your 100% rise - Well 4kin done (not bitter!)

Doyezee and Jimjam you are both on the naughty step. Neither has taken Dilution3 into account?

I haven’t got round to updating the table but I am sure Newbies will still find it useful.

Hope you are all well.

Version 2 Draft 2
AML Share Price Table.

Column A. CURRENT Share Price (Consolidated).
Column B. Share Price as a result of Dilution 3.
Column C. Share Price as a result of Dilution 2.
Column D. Share Price as a result of Dilution 1.
Column E. Share Price at IPO.
Column F. MCAP.

.....A....B....C....D......E.......F.
£3.65 18p 23p 28p £1.86 £419M << Lowest Price (28p)
£3.97 20p 25p 30p £2.00 £456M << Dilution 1 (30p)
£7.93 40p 50p 60p £4.00 £910M << Dilution 2 & 3 (50p)
£10.31 51p 65p 78p £5.20 £1.18B << PreCovid (£5.20)
£11.11 55p 70p 84p £5.60 £1.28B
£11.91 59p 75p 90p £6.00 £1.37B
£12.69 63p 80p 96p £6.40 £1.46B
£13.48 67p 85p 102p £6.80 £1.55B

£14.17 70.85p << Consolidation.

£14.28 71p 90p 108p £7.20 £1.64B
£15.07 75p 95p 114p £7.60 £1.73B
£15.87 79p 100p 120p £8.00 £1.82B <£23.80 119p 150p 180p £12.00 £2.74B
£31.74 159p 200p 240p £16.00 £3.65B

£37.61 188p 237p 280p £19.00 £4.33B << IPO (£19)

Useful Notes:-

IPO = Initial Public Offering ie the AML Stock Market Launch. (£19 £4.33B) Sept 2018.
Total AML Shares in Issue = 228,002,890.

Dilution 1. (30p) April 2020.
Additional 1,292,011,560 Shares.
New Total Shares in Issue = 1,520,014,450.

Dilution 2. (50p) June 2020.
Additional 304,000,000 Shares.
New Total Shares in Issue =1,824,014,450.

Dilution 3. (50p) 7th Dec 2020.
Additional 250,000,000 Placing and
224,657,287 Consideration Shares.
New Total Shares in Issue = 2,298,671,737.

Consolidation. 20:1 14th Dec 2020.
New Total Shares in Issue = 114,933,587.

PreCovid Share price was £5.20 in Jan 2020. (MCAP £1.18 B).

The lowest recorded Share Price of 28p was May 2020 just after Dilution 1 (30p) was announced. (MCAP £419M).

MCAP = Market Capitalisation (Company’s worth).

It’s a well know fact that “Managers get promoted out of harms way”.

Governments in every Country in the world are made up of the kids at school that no one liked its a well known fact. There was always one that didn’t fit in. Odd. They get together and get their own back. Let them have their time but they won’t win. They didn’t then and they won’t now.
We are being conned at every level.
That’s what I think anyway ha ha!

Not forgetting of course that £140m was raised with the recent share dilution.

The BOD cleverly paid off £40m of revolving credit and £64m of an existing £134m loan, extending the balance of £70m to May 2023.

Balance cash from above is £36m.

In addition £100m undrawn revolving credit facility remains available until May 2023.

Sheltie

Jan-Jun 2019
Average Mcap £840million

July 2019- Jan 2020
Average Mcap £560million

*** COVID ***
Feb 2020 - Jan 2021
Average Mcap £175million

Now Today Jan 2021
Mcap £354million

So in the year prior to Covid when everyone agrees the Company was not in a great place anyway (see “Saga History”) the Mcap was roughly 50% higher than it is today BUT the ships weren’t stuck in port.

As soon as the Government announces that cruises can resume then an immediate 50% jump in the share price and that is just the beginning.

Hope this helps.

Interesting to see that 95 out of the 500 shops are still open.

https://www.theworks.co.uk/on/demandware.static/-/Sites-TWS-UK-Library/default/dw222f5750/images/store/_GB/pdf/store-open-0101.pdf

The website is really established now and so clever of the couple who own The Works to name the shop on the High St TheWorks.co.uk so advertising 24/7.

Staff furloughed so wages paid by the Government in January which is notoriously a quiet month and online sales booming.

I think (hope!) the results in a few weeks time are actually going to be much better than expected.

Hi selecta sadly I slipped into Category 7 a few weeks ago!

Yes the kissofdeath has been on top form lately selling EVERYTHING just before AML SAGA ODX SAR had a 100% + rise ffs.

“Things can only get better” ha ha

Just sold my CARD last week so if you fancy a punt that will be next.

Piled into N4P and PHE so keep away from them!

This is still my biggest holding along with WRKS.

Hope you are well.