Member Info for RoxburyHouse

Omg I’m so bad at share dealing!
We all see the shares going up and down and think oh if I had sold them then and bought them then I would be this better off.....
It’s just not possible!
I’ve made this mistake so many times and just cannot learn from my mistakes.
I suppose I should be happy with the rise because I still have my core holding of 40k+ shares but I’m more interested in the 8k+ I sold at £2.53 with the plan of buying them back “cheaper”!!

The moral of the story is.....

Found this earlier and thought I would share.

Appreciate everyone’s thoughts.

Thank you.

https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/1118811-first-step-in-development-of-pill-based-vaccines

“Researchers from Cardiff University have created the world’s first synthetic, non-biologic vaccine.
The non-biologic influenza vaccine, which can be delivered orally, could herald a revolution in vaccine delivery.
Stable at room temperature, the new type of vaccine, which could be given in pill form, does not require refrigeration – a process that can account for most of the cost of delivery of many current vaccines.
Vaccines that do not require refrigeration can be transported more easily and are more suitable for developing countries where it can be difficult to keep things cool.”

Well, you may recall that I got my fingers well and truly burnt by trying to be ‘clever’ selling and re buying my complete holding a month back because I missed the rise from £1.40.....
If at first you don’t succeed.....
Just tried again but only a small part of my holding ha ha!
Oh c’mon what’s the worst that can happen? Lol
Anyhow sold some at £2.53 to buy back at £2.43 I hope.
We all know this is going to be £3+ very soon but may aswell have some fun on the way!!

For Janbo

Column A. CURRENT Share Price
139,594,769 (140 MILLION) shares.
(Consolidated 15:1)

Column B. Share Price AFTER Dilution.
2,093,921,536 (2.1 BILLION) shares.

Column C. Share Price BEFORE Dilution.
1,122,003,328 (1.1 BILLION) shares.

Column D. MCAP.

.....A....B....C.......D
80p 5.4p 10p £112.2M
96p 6.4p 12p £134.6M
112p 7.5p 14p £157.0M
129p 8.6p 16p £179.5M
145p 9.6p 18p £201.9M
161p 10.7p 20p £224.4M
177p 11.8p 22p £246.8M
193p 12.9p 24p £269.3M
209p 13.9p 26p £291.7M
225p 15.0p 28p £314.2M
241p 16.1p 30p £336.6M
257p 17.1p 32p £359.0M
273p 18.2p 34p £381.5M
289p 19.3p 36p £403.9M
305p 20.4p 38p £426.4M
321p 21.4p 40p £448.8M
337p 22.5p 42p £471.2M
354p 23.6p 44p £493.7M
370p 24.6p 46p £516.1M
386p 25.7p 48p £538.6M
401p 26.8p 50p £561.0M

Notes.
1. Sorry the column headers don’t line up.

For Jambo and Newbies.

SAGA a Brief History. 1951 - 2020.

Here we have a brief history to date of SAGA put together for new PIs visiting this board.

Everybody here has invested because we think that there is currently a huge disconnect between the current share price representative of a company nearing failure and the actuality of a well-funded organisation, reset to core values by a founding family member and operating into the first year of economic bounce-back from a global pandemic.

We hope reading the summary you will agree with us and invest!

- 1951. Founded by Sidney De Haan.

- 1984. Passed to his son Roger after his father's retirement.

- 1990. Took Private by Roger.

- 2004. Sold to his Management for £1.35bn.

- 2014. IPO with an over inflated Share Price of £1.85 (£2.1bn Mcap).

- 2017 RNS. Profit warning.

- 2019 RNS. Results showing a huge loss.

- April 2020. The losses were caused by Impairment of Goodwill and the Management losing its way. Covid created the perfect storm resulting in the Company losing 95% of its value.

- Oct 2020. Prompted by a failed PE bid of 33p (Old money) valuing the Company at roughly £370m Sir Roger on his white stallion re-entered the affray and came up with the following 5 point rescue plan :-

1. Rejoining the board as Chairman & implementing a new strategy for sustainable growth & profitability. All other directors also taking up pro-rata entitlements.
2. Share DILUTION at a rate of 5 new shares for every 9 existing to raise £140m (net) swiftly followed by a 1 for 15 share CONSOLIDATION.
3. Paying off £40M of revolving credit along with £64M of an existing £134M loan and extending the balance of £70m to May 2023. Available cash £36m.
4. £100m undrawn revolving credit facility remaining available until May 2023.
5. Investing £100m of his own cash in the fund raise at a premium (£2.78) to retail share price.

- Insurance & underwriting sides are now performing 'resiliently' and will grow as emerge from Covid.

- Travel side on hold due to Covid but set to resume Q2 2021.

- Significant actions to reduce operating costs have been taken and the cash 'burn' for the Travel businesses is expected to be in a range of £6m to £8m per month which includes all operating and financing expenses.

- Cruises, will incl pre-screening of passengers, & extra safety provisions onboard. Two mid size cruise ships, each capable of generating £40m EBITDA per year (£80m pa total).

- Mainly over 50's customer base, with strong loyalty, & fastest growing & most wealthy component of the population.

- Approximately 80% of SAGA’s underlying profit is from the Insurance and estimated to be valued alone between £1bn to £1.6bn.

- MCAP Today (Jan 2021) £350m compared to £560m in Jan 2020 (preCovid) and £2.1bn in 2014 (IPO).

Jan-Jun 2019
Average MCAP £840m

July 2019- Jan 2020
Average MCAP £560m

———COVID ————

Feb 2020 - Oct 2020
Average MCAP £168m

Now Today Jan 2021
MCAP £350m

Other than Covid which is obviously massive nothing negative has happened to Saga. Everything has been positive.

It’s so blo ody obvious that this will immediately recover to at least the value pre Covid ie £560m as soon as the cruises resume.

Taking into account RDH is now at the helm then IMO it will quickly then rise to a minimum of what it was in 2019 ie £840m.

Based on 140m shares this gives a share price of £4.02 and £6.02 respectively.

Great thread guys.

We have got some great posters on this board and I would just like to say thank you for sharing your knowledge, it is very much appreciated.

Everybody invested here is desperate to get those ships out of the port and earning money but as pointed out above, it is pointless until they are going to be welcomed by other ports and countries.

In addition it must be remembered that (contrary to what a lot of people think) the vaccine does not make you immune to the virus. It just means you are less likely to die if and when you next get it.

That being the case then I’m beginning to think that those ships are not going anywhere until (at the absolute minimum) all the “at risk” groups in the destinations countries (Europe) have had their vaccines.

Anybody dare to guess when that would be?

Yeah great post FJG and thanks for sharing your research.

Sadly I do think the cruises will be delayed again until possibly Jun/July which means the people who have booked the earlier cruises will be offered the available rooms on future cruises so the 80% (break even?) figure will be hit.

Actually what is “break even” does anybody know?

A cash ‘burn’ of £6m has been stated a couple of times on this board for these ships being stuck in port. It obviously must be more than that for a fully staffed ship on a cruise but how much more? Dufos?

What occupancy is break even?

Also we must remember that they are costing the company £6m every month so even a small loss per Cruise is better than £6m.

Yes The Works is my “dirty little secret”.

For those who don’t know, the guy who started this Company did so with his wife after setting up (and then selling) the Card Factory (which he also set up).

All the mistakes he made there he corrected here, the first being the name. Walk past both these stores which you can do in any high St or shopping centre and you will see a glaring difference - the name.

CARD FACTORY vs TheWorks.co.uk

From day 1 and the bottom up this couple have embraced on line and it is going to be their saviour (and ours).

It will not only survive Covid it will prosper.

If you haven’t already then register for their daily email, it is inspiring.

Looking at today’s, their books are
Kids Education at home, Read for writing age3-5, Maths and English age 6-7 and the list goes on.

Their is a whole section called HomeWorks which is basically kids Education.

The guys who run this company are so switched on and as a (large) shareholder I feel so relaxed.

All IMO of course but this time next year I think everyone invested here now is going to be very happy.

GLA

Great buying opportunity again today guys. I got another 4258@£2.33 which I am well pleased with. Will do the same again tomorrow if it drops further.

It’s not a case of IF it’s a case of WHEN cruises restart and WHEN this happens everybody is going to look back at this price and wish they bought more.

“Stille” I don’t know if you remember but when CC first mentioned BPC over on the AML board I said that I sold all mine before the boat even set sail. I was concerned about the green peace involvement. It was a stroke of luck though because I didn’t expect the threat to come from within. Everyone was blind sided there. I did take you up on your tip with N4P though!

Anyone who has researched Saga (or just followed this board closely) will know that the profits from the Insurance arm of the business can cover the average £7m monthly cash ‘burn’ for the Travel arm.

To reduce the risk further though the BOD cleverly kept aside £36m of the £140m raised to ‘top up’ any short fall in the above monthly payment.

In addition they also still have access to £100m undrawn revolving credit facility until 2023.

Taking everything into account it seems to me that the Saga BOD have covered all bases and have given me as a shareholder confidence.

So much so that I have invested way more than I should have and just over twice what my wife thinks!

The cruises are going to be delayed again until Jun/July? for sure and as a consequence the share price will dip and I for one will see that as another buying opportunity.

All IMHO of course. GLA.

Stille! are you the bf? Ha ha

I’m not convinced that’s anybody had duplicate aliases and for me both 33 and WG were completely honest in their declared trades.
Both were a bit grumpy sometimes and an absolute nightmare to live with I’m sure but a big loss to the AML board.

I think every person invested here in N4P likes high risk shares because we all want to multi bag. There are safer shares for sure but let’s be honest 10-20% potential gain is boring.

Back in March I scoured the market looking for Covid potential multi bagger shares. The list was endless and I had the likes of TILS, NCYT, SAR, ODX in my sights but had to pick one and I chose ....AVCT and by complete fluke 9 bagged it. When it went up 50% I was so tempted to top skim but didn’t. Then it doubled and quickly trebled. OMG every part of me said SELL but I didn’t. I managed to hang on until I think 7 bag and then eventually sold the lot at 9 bag.
My point is this game is all about risk and this is high stake poker. Red black red black.

If you are feeling lucky then check out PHE and EQTE. Both high risk/high gain and just like N4P are potential multi baggers but one of these 3 are going to come (really) good I just know which one do spread your bet.

No advice intended and please DYOR.
Good luck everybody.

.....and the chance of success is also very real.
BPC if they strike oil success if they don’t then failure.
AML if the DBX is successful ..then success and if not the company will likely fail.
The list really is endless.
That my friends is the nature of the beast.
Welcome to the world of share dealing.
It’s not for everyone but if you do your research and have a sprinkle of luck then the £ gains here at N4P could potentially be massive. IMO any way.

South African Variant.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55534727

“Dr Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser on Covid-19 to Public Health England, said: "We are carrying out work as a priority to understand the potential risk this variant may cause. It is important to say that there is currently no evidence that this variant causes more severe illness, or that the regulated vaccine would not protect against it."

Who’s are these thoughts Simon?

Yours by any chance?

Please provide a link to back up claims like this.

On a positive note the third vaccine has been approved (Moderna)!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55586410

Yeah no problems guys i woke up this morning and it was just one of those mad thoughts when you are laid in bed!

It was just meant as a bit of fun! No probs.
Got to go now and touch base with my upbringing and find myself!! Ha ha

Take care everybody I promise I will leave you all alone now and keep my hair brained ideas to myself!

Over and definitely out.

Good morning everybody.

This board has had its ups and downs lately but now it has settled down I was wondering what your thoughts are about the following:-

A Challenge were we all pick one Company and actually invest £1000 and see who makes the most £!

You can change Companies as much as you want and day trade or long term hold it’s up to you but you can only hold one stock at a time in your “challenge portfolio”.

Every Sunday the “Leaderboard” will be updated.

Rules. (which will be tuned)

Initial entry max £1000.

Only one Company at any one time.

Must declare beforehand real time your intention then message the trade afterwards for evidence.

Day trade or LT hold is up to you.

Leaderboard updated every Sunday clearly showing your declared “Balance”

PIs can come and go as they please so new people can join during the challenge.

No limit to number of transactions on your one stock.

Hi Steamin
Oh yes I will be pursuing the “Shareholder Cruise” for sure. I think it’s a great idea ha ha
I have already thought it all through. Watch this space but don’t worry, it will be conditional of Saga at least doubling!
PHE yes I recommended that a few weeks ago. Plastic to Hydrogen what’s not to like? I don’t often mention my “successes” people prefer to hear failures lol I got 20 grands worth at 3p so very happy.
Another one to watch if you are feeling brave is EQT(E) I got spiked and bought in at 3p but it’s just dropped to 2.3p lol but again DYOR!