Member Info for RoxburyHouse

Good morning everybody.

Just thinking about the current Government restrictions and which ones are directly controlling what Saga can and can’t do?

Ok so Schools open and then non essential shops then restaurants and eventually pubs.

Where do we fit into all this?

What is the pecking order?

The more I think about this and what a total shambles it all is with the new variants then the more I think the only way forward with any certainty is ‘cruises to nowhere’.

Can’t believe that there are only a handful of us here who have seen the potential with the Works.

I get a daily email from them and are so impressed with it. Everyday it is different and it can be seen that a lot of effort is going into this. We are in good hands here and a 50% re-rate is coming here IMO as soon as those shops are reopened.

Here is today’s email link for jigsaws.

Click on it and go through the process as if you were going to buy something. A lot of effort and £ has gone into making the process simple and it really is impressive.

“Get the perfect jigsaw puzzle for you. With excellent prices on a wide range of jigsaws for all ages, you can find puzzles on everything from landscapes to animals to your favourite characters from film and tv. Find you perfect jigsaw puzzle below at The Works.”

https://www.theworks.co.uk/c/toys-and-games/jigsaws

Ha ha!

Yeah Jo Soaps did tickle me.

A Covid joke.

Do you remember when you used to cough to hide a fart?
Now we fart to hide a cough! Ha ha

C’mon everybody give us your best.

Everyone has got at least one good joke in them.

My Wife has been missing for a week now.
Police said Prepare for the Worst.
So I have been to the Charity shop to get all her clothes back. Ha ha!

Hi Rogue

It’s a (n educated) guess - finger in the air.

As you know, the average Mcap between July 2019 and Jan 2020 (Pre-Covid) was £560m.

I have made the assumption that we will go back to that (which let’s be honest, at the time was poor) as a minimum.

I think this is a fair assumption now we have sir R at the reigns (and £140m ‘in the bank’).

Mcap today (7/2/21) is £417m.

Highest post Covid Mcap (from Lse tables) was £490m.

So... we are getting close.

£560m is a share price of £4.
£700m is a share price of £5.

If (and it’s a big if) this share price does not get held back by ‘you know who’ then £700m Mcap is easily achievable if these god damned ships ever leave that port ffs ha ha

Trying to not be pedantic here but Pianista (and ...Ndn) are right, this board lacks structure.

For sad people like me it’s not too big an issue because I read everything but for other people who have got a life away from all of this and call by occasionally like Dufos/Value/Selecta it is a problem - for us!

Unless we specifically ask them a question by putting their name in the subject header they cannot address a query without trawling through all of the posts which doesn’t make sense.

I intentionally opened a thread to discuss privatisation and Banbury (who we all have to agree is our best and most interesting poster) replies on a complete different thread!!

Banbury I want to pick your brains soon and ask you a taxation question soon so please don’t take umbrage.

I’m not going to ask it here though, this is the ‘board structure’ thread so I will start a ‘taxation’ thread!

£5 minimum! which is a 100% mark up from the average share price lately. I have got that in my head and I would rather under estimate my possible return and be pleasantly surprised than over estimate it and be disappointed.

I was heavily invested in the AA recently and the PE takeover so nothing would surprise me anymore.

Money talks as the say and this idea of 72 year old Billionaire Sir R on his rocking chair thinking of anybody else but himself doesn’t wash with me!

Once it’s safe to do so this is going private. He has done it before and is well versed!

£5.50 thank you very much and I will be top slicing! Ha ha

Started a new thread to gather everybody’s thoughts/opinions.

“Saga started out in the 1950s by offering package holidays - then a major growth industry - and listed on the stock exchange in 1978 as Saga Holidays. That eventually provided a platform for its diversification into insurance, which now accounts for about 70 per cent of profits, before it was taken private again by the founding family in 1990.“

What do we know about the circumstances surrounding this decision? Anyone?

Sir R will take this private for sure - I would and so would you!

Saga was valued at £2.1B in the 2014 IPO.

I personally think this will be surpassed quite quickly (post Covid) with the right person in charge (him!).

Dividing this figure with the current number of shares gives a share price of £15+.

I’ve never met a billionaire but my guess is what’s keeping him awake at night atm is when he is going to do it and how in the mean time he can suppress any good news to keep the share price down!

£5+ is win win for most people here though isn’t it?

Nobody can say they haven’t had plenty of opportunity to bring their average down.

£3+ next week IMO which most probably means it’s going back to the low £2s ha ha

I’m going to count to 3
1
2
3

Now let’s all move on guys. Nothing has actually happened so pleeeaase let it drop.

You have clearly invested in Saga Ndn so Welcome and also Pianista it’s nice to see you are back.

£3+ next week guys.

Hi Banbury
We haven’t got £140m cash because most of it paid off debt and the remaining cash has been ‘burnt’ ha ha!

What I love about these discussion boards is the mix of people.

We have Dufos at one end who as we know is an ex director of Saga Andy the likes of me and you at the other (scrubbers) ha ha

Yes I noticed nobody wanted to continue the privatisation conversation with you yesterday. I think it was because a couple of people felt deflated at the thought of only getting £5 per share?

Hi Marcus
We were never privy to the terms of the offer. I believe it came with a list of conditions that were not acceptable to the BOD (my guess is that they were getting told to bu gg er off)

On a separate note though it bugs the life out of me how the majority of investors here still multiply or divide by 15 to find the old/new share price!

The 33p offer was made before the Dilution so there was 1,122,003,328 (1.1 BILLION) shares.

So £0.33 x 1,122,003,328 = £367m

This is the Mcap ie the value of the company and how much that was offered by the PE firm to buy it.

If the same PE firm made the exact same offer now today then the equivalent share price would be £367m divided by the current number of shares. Ie

367m / 139,594,769 = £2.63 not £4.95

Oh yes Millionaire I completely agree. I’m just playing around with my float, my core holding is safe.

I have calmed down big time now, my antics a couple of months ago over on AML were nothing short of shocking. I used to sell and buy back my entire holding!

When it works it’s a great feeling but it always catches you out and I lost out big time.

Beachbum - that made me laugh out loud! I have been there my friend. At least you bought back lower I normally buy back higher! Ha ha

Seagull - my advice is don’t take advice from me because I’m cr ap at this but don’t be too greedy when you set your price to buy back, that has cost me dearly.

Quick check of the live price before I post this.... £2.84? awww ffs here we go again. Ha ha

Sat this morning looking at the live share price.

Over burning desire to do ‘something’ - can’t just sit there and do nothing lol!

Mmmm £2.88 so do I sell 10 grands worth hoping it will drop and buy back at say £2.68 OR do I buy 10 grands worth and hope it breaks £3?

That was the dilemma.

I noticed yesterday a couple of you guys sold at £2.80 with a similar plan.

Zig or Zag that was the question....

C’mon c’mon make a decision...

I Zagged!

Bought at £2.88 the highest I have paid yet.

The law of averages states that surely I can’t be wrong every time?

All a bit of fun and God loves a trier so they say! Ha ha

SAGA a Brief History. 1951 - 2020.

Here we have a brief history to date of SAGA put together for new PIs visiting this board.

Everybody here has invested because we think that there is currently a huge disconnect between the current share price representative of a company nearing failure and the actuality of a well-funded organisation, reset to core values by a founding family member and operating into the first year of economic bounce-back from a global pandemic.

We hope reading the summary you will agree with us and invest!

- 1951. Founded by Sidney De Haan.

- 1984. Passed to his son Roger after his father's retirement.

- 1990. Took Private by Roger.

- 2004. Sold to his Management for £1.35bn.

- 2014. IPO with an over inflated Share Price of £1.85 (£2.1bn Mcap).

- 2017 RNS. Profit warning.

- 2019 RNS. Results showing a huge loss.

- April 2020. The losses were caused by Impairment of Goodwill and the Management losing its way. Covid created the perfect storm resulting in the Company losing 95% of its value.

- Oct 2020. Prompted by a failed PE bid of 33p (Old money) valuing the Company at roughly £370m Sir Roger on his white stallion re-entered the affray and came up with the following 5 point rescue plan :-

1. Rejoining the board as Chairman & implementing a new strategy for sustainable growth & profitability. All other directors also taking up pro-rata entitlements.
2. Share DILUTION at a rate of 5 new shares for every 9 existing to raise £140m (net) swiftly followed by a 1 for 15 share CONSOLIDATION.
3. Paying off £40M of revolving credit along with £64M of an existing £134M loan and extending the balance of £70m to May 2023. Available cash £36m.
4. £100m undrawn revolving credit facility remaining available until May 2023.
5. Investing £100m of his own cash in the fund raise at a premium (£2.78) to retail share price.

- Insurance & underwriting sides are now performing 'resiliently' and will grow as emerge from Covid.

- Travel side on hold due to Covid but set to resume Q2 2021.

- Significant actions to reduce operating costs have been taken and the cash 'burn' for the Travel businesses is expected to be in a range of £6m to £8m per month which includes all operating and financing expenses.

- Cruises, will incl pre-screening of passengers, & extra safety provisions onboard. Two mid size cruise ships, each capable of generating £40m EBITDA per year (£80m pa total).

- Mainly over 50's customer base, with strong loyalty, & fastest growing & most wealthy component of the population.

- Approximately 80% of SAGA’s underlying profit is from the Insurance and estimated to be valued alone between £1bn to £1.6bn.

- MCAP Today (Jan 2021) £350m compared to £560m in Jan 2020 (preCovid) and £2.1bn in 2014 (IPO).

Hi JS I typed it in quickly so you guys could catch the report. No mention of Saga (apart from me - smacked wrists!) but the main point was how much they loved cruising and even after catching Covid on the last one it hasn’t put them off. They said they have booked another 5.

Did anybody see it? I am sure they went on to say they would be happy to just go on the ship and miss out all the ports (or something like that)

Hi Banbury this is how I see it.

I have to reprint part of one of my earlier posts to explain myself:-

Mcap.......Share Price.
£1.35B n/a <<2004 Sold by Sir R to Management
£2.1B 1504p << 2014 IPO (£1.85).
£840.0m 602p << Jan-Jun 2019. (Average).
£560.0m 400p << July 2019-Jan 2020. (Average)
£168.0m 120p << Feb-Oct 2020. (Average).
£370.0m 265p << Rejected PE Offer (33p old price)
£314.2m 225p << Oct 2020-Jan 2021. (Average).
£435.0m 312p << Last week! (21st Jan).
£344.8m 247p << ** TODAY ** (29/1/2021).

The share price is now £2.80 ofcourse but that’s not important to my point.

As we know, Sir R has taken this private before so he has got ‘form’.

He knows the true value of this Company and now controls everything, well almost everything.....

He doesn’t control the announcement that cruising can continue which is when this share will jump to the £4 region. Even this ‘institution’ selling will not be able to stop that tide.

It still won’t be safe for him to make his move until the cruise ships physically leave the port and even then there is the danger of someone catching Covid and the party ending for all of us so he will wait.

By then this share price will be £5+.

The majority of people here? will be 100% up.

That’s not a bad worst case is it? - and most certainly nothing to worry about!

Using the figures above I am trying to keep my average below the old 33p rejected bid which is 265p and keep buying on the dips.

As Selecta says - The future is bright, the future is Saga!

A couple who both caught Covid on a Saga cruise say it hasn’t put them off can’t wait to book another and say they have booked 5.

Saga wasn’t mentioned but it was from Southampton and the Princess?

Just being the devils advocate here and making sure we cover every angle...

I agree with Dufos that this will be taken private once you know who knows it is safe. So is the price being controlled? Ie to keep the 12 month average down?

Non of us know of course, it’s pure speculation but at these prices (and below £5 average) we will be safe.

Multibagging mmm not so sure.

Sir R is a billionaire for a reason.

Ndn 100% agree.

Saga even got a mention on CNN because they were the first to announce the Vaccine only customers.

The ‘cruises to nowhere’ announcement is coming for sure and that my friends is when this share price gets bumped up to £4.

All IMO of course and anyone who has followed my posts will know I’m usually wrong! Ha ha