Member Info for RoxburyHouse

£180,000 buys £50,000 sells.
It’s a big game.
The MM algorithm is designed to generate £.
No reason for today’s drop. Nothing will be happening here until the results in Sept.
in the meantime it will go up and down that’s what shares do. Great time to buy. Nobody knows how low it will go before the rise we are all expecting.
This is my last post for a while. I’m all locked and loaded so going to (try) and switch off. Speak again in September. Good luck everybody!

Great Post Ehtefaznaser and very informative. Thank you.

Thank you Ehtefaznaser, no, that’s me finished now, Card is 100% my portfolio, just short of 670,000 shares, no more funds. I do have a property for sale atm though but have promised my wife that it’s not going into shares.
For those here who don’t know, Ehtefaznaser here has his own own shop that sells Cards so it would be interesting in your take of Hodgys figures. Is this typical and what % would be profit? Any ideas?

Great post Hodgy and thank you for sharing.

I think we can safely say that the Card Factory (lockdowns permitting) is going to survive Covid so the only pressure at the moment is to satisfy the banks demands to start paying off the Covid debt of £70M before July 2022. First payment being November 30th (my birthday!).

Even if each shop averaged £100 a day profit then that’s half the debt serviced. Just going from my daily observations at the number of people passing through the doors I’m guessing it’s going to be many multiples of this.

Anyhow I have made my very last purchase a couple of minutes ago 21698@0.581963 so that’s me “all in”.

OMG what have I done?
Broke every rule that’s what! ha ha

Totally agree Tovers and I have witnessed it ‘on the ground’ the other day whilst “browsing” the cards in one of their shops. I had my back to the till so couldn’t see what was being bought but there was a guy asking a member of staff which sized item would be best suited for a wedding he was attending and after the conversation he bought both! I heard the Cashier ask the Customer before him for £11, him for £19 and the next for £12. People are buying much more than just Cards.
My guess is that all of the staff are being set targets.

Yes jedclampit and it must be remembered that when open this business (when the shops were open) was averaging £80 to £90M profit every year that it was returning as dividends to very happy shareholders.
As I see it they will easily meet the targets set by the bank so no penalty will be incurred and once this has been cleared the share price will jump. Then my guess is that they will reinstate the dividend which again will bump up the share price. It’s a no brainer for me.

Well Ian that is the million $ question and my take on all of this is they are going to attempt to raise the £ through sales. The risk here is to whether you think there will be anymore lockdowns? If not then each of the 1000 shops has to make £190 daily profit to hit the full £70M. Truth is that there are more than 1000 shops and the shops have already been open almost 2 months and by the time November 30 comes they will have had almost 6 months of takings before having to meet the first of the payments.
95% of my portfolio is now Card because I am confident. It will soon be 100% if the current share price dips.
Hope this helps and of course this is just my opinion and I could be wrong but tbh I am not worried if there is a RI but I just don’t see it. Good luck whatever you decide.

Yes I have noticed that they have them at the entrance to entice people in. Something for everyone. Just above the 99p cards they have nicer quality cards wrapped in a clear plastic for £1.49. All very clever. I saw 2 staff today busy refilling the shelves that line the queue to the till and it made me realise why there is always a queue so punters are tempted to buy extras that they never came in for. Again all very clever and clearly planned. Apart from the odd person everybody leaves with a bag of “stuff”.

Ha ha I’m glad it’s not just me!
I’ve been over to the one at Washington again - honestly it must be the flag ship of Card Factory shops because no matter what day or time I go there is always a queue at the till? Couldn’t stop myself from buying another 10 grands of shares whilst sitting outside with my bag of chips ha ha

This is an interesting read:-

https://www.cardfactoryinvestors.com/sites/cardfactory/files/pdf/CF%20CMD%20Skeleton_vFINAL%20for%20Website.pdf

Thanks lag1 just like you no doubt and the majority of people here I’m just a working class guy (albeit retired) who’s having a go at this stock market malarky. I would never advocate anybody here doing something as risky as what I have done and even if they do then please not with money you can afford to lose. For me it’s go big or go home ha ha
The “July 22” RNS fiasco (read my past posts) was the light switch moment for me when everybody was selling I was buying. As a result my average is still quite high (62 ish) so I am currently a lot down but this share can turn so quickly and that is exactly what I am banking on.
Always remember though In 100 years none of this matter. Lol.

Thanks PandaFund that’s interesting. So a large holder is reducing their holding but doesn’t want to cause a panic so instructs a MM to sell in small batches at the support level. That makes sense.
Hi lag1 Research and Gut feeling.
Could be wrong of course but I am taking the gamble that the world will go back to normal quite quickly after Covid. It will never go away but will be managed.
CARD was £1.80 before the shops were forced shut BUT the high st was already in decline and let’s be honest people just don’t send as many cards as they used to especially at Xmas but I think Card is over sold and that’s my gamble. £1 is my target when I will reduce.
Hey I could be wrong but from my almost daily visits to the different Card shops within my area at different times of the day I’m confident.

Whoever has done it though Thankyou because it has just allowed me to buy the 17,502 shares I needed to round my total upto 600,000!
Got them at 0.57481 which will not be displayed yet.
No more that is my last order. Almost 90% of my portfolio.

Good morning accipiter
Good question and although I don’t have the exact answer I have an incline.
I have to keep reminding myself that this is one big game and we are the players. The City boys call us PIs “Cannon Fodder”. Easy money for them. Taking Candy off a baby. Notice that they are all “A”utomatic.
Programmed to drop the price. The share price Algorithm is programmed such that if a lot of sells arrive at the same time then the price drops and vice versa.
So we can safely say that the Card share is being manipulated by someone but by who and why?
A shorter maybe? Or someone who wants to place a big order but wants to bring the price down before placing it?
The upshot of those sells as you can see has dropped the price.
Like I say I don’t know the reason why but that’s my guess.

Father’s Day Card played a blinder! The shops were all open and people were buying not only cards but mugs/ balloons/pillows etc etc.
Another buy of 16926@0.587392 thank you very much.
Hope this isn’t going to all end in tears! Ha ha

16992@0.585111 buy is mine just executed. Won’t show yet. Can’t resist.

I’m seriously considering going all in.

If they do hit the £70M target then this will jump and once they announce that they intend to reinstate the dividend (which I think they will) then this will fly.

For sure.
Anybody considering investing here should Google “Card Factory Bonkers Bargain”.
An older honest report that has been updated recently so extremely relevant and from what I can see accurate.
Here is an extract if interest.

“ The business has previously been highly cash generative, with free cash primarily returned to shareholders through an appealing dividend.

Free cash flow averaged £84m per annum over each of the financial years ending January 2020, with £88m generated in the last of these”

This was just before Covid struck and shut the shops. They are all open now and generating cash.

*70M/1000shops/365 days =£191