Member Info for RoxburyHouse

Close accipiter but my wife is a midwife and she always says that 9 months after Xmas/New year eve/Valentine’s Day are the busiest months.

I wonder how many people here are Xmas/Valentine babies? Ie late Sept early October and then middle/end November. I am! My Dad got his “leg ower” Valentine’s Day 1959 for sure! Ha ha

Ha ha Good point norrab and very true but does anybody know why?

Has anybody else noticed this?

Could be wrong but I would imagine each and every person reading this and either invested or thinking about it as a bare minimum as entered a Card Factory shop and “browsed”?

I am currently making a career of it and almost in every occasion hear the cashier asking if the Customer needs sellotape or wrapping paper etc etc and they are all there within arms reach. Most are taking the bait.

Now if you agree (see my earlier post) that it’s a reasonable expectation that by the end of the year footfall will be just 10% to 15% below the pre-pandemic level then that coincides with Xmas which is perfect for us.

Add the new drive to “Upsell” which was specifically mention in a recent RNS to counteract the high st reduction in footfall then we are onto a winner winner chicken dinner here IMO.

The 33p rejected PE offer valued the Company at £370.0m which is 265p at today’s prices.

Hi PI got to confess I sold my SZ shares today. Lost £500 in a week but put it back in Card where I took it from which had lost the same anyway so straight swap. I like SZ because of the reviews which are brilliant but I kid you not there is literally nobody ever in the shop when I pass by and I mean ever so be careful.
In complete contrast The Works and CF are always really really busy.

Encouraging.

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/staycation-boost-for-high-street-as-footfall-improves-in-august-12397186

"On the basis that nothing untoward occurs and restrictions are not put back in place, it appears to be a reasonable expectation that by the end of the year footfall will be just 10% to 15% below the pre-pandemic level."

Encouraging.

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/staycation-boost-for-high-street-as-footfall-improves-in-august-12397186

"On the basis that nothing untoward occurs and restrictions are not put back in place, it appears to be a reasonable expectation that by the end of the year footfall will be just 10% to 15% below the pre-pandemic level."

28th so a week tomorrow (Tuesday).

Remember though that these will be for the 6 months preceding 31st July.

All the shops fully reopened at the end of April so only 3 full months of trading because of lockdown so don’t expect fireworks.

They should however give a good indication and the City is obviously well aware that they have been also fully open since and nothing to indicate that they will be closing anytime soon or for that matter ever.

Try not to overthink it Gordon. As you may recall I sold up because I thought I spotted a better opportunity elsewhere and my guess is that is what they have done.

Emphasis on the word “thought” though because this as you know is a guessing game.

Saga is a great investment and one that I monitor everyday waiting for my “buy back in price”.

Good luck everybody I’m rooting for you all regardless.

Being so heavily invested I can’t stop myself making a slight detour when I’m out and about to take in a bit of shop stalking also. Ive found a little spot at “The Galleries” in Washington out of the way where I can see the tills and it’s just constantly busy every time I’m here.

Had a little wander in and looked at the Xmas stock which is plentiful and can see a box of 10 cards for 99p.
Also more expensive ones upto the deluxe for £4.79.
There is an offer for 3 for 2 on all boxed cards.

If they can make a profit on boxing 10 cards and selling them for 30 for £1.98 ie 3 for 2 then how much profit are they making on each of the angle individual normal cards that people are buying? A lot is the answer.

There are going to be MM shenanigans in the next 2 weeks and I’m expecting a drop as weaker holders panic and sell.

I sold a very small part of my holding (5% ish) about 2 weeks ago thinking this might happen and will be buying them back in the week before the results so I’m fully loaded on the day.

No advice intended but I have made a small fortune in the last 18 months and my gut tells me I’m going to double that here.

Always liked playing games since I was a kid and that’s what this is a big game.

This time next year the share price (IMO) will be £1+ regardless whether there is a RI.

Let the MM algorithms have their fun and if you are brave do a little bit of day trading with 5 to 10% of your holding. That’s what I am doing!

Good post PurpleInvestor. Yes I have complete faith in Wrks I think our money is safe here. The shops are always busy and once they finally sell all those jigsaw puzzles with missing pieces I think the reviews will improve also.

That 14599@06844 is mine! Ha ha

High St Game 3 if you have also bought Card!
51.7p good price. Well done.

Yes jedclampit that is also a very real possibility because a lot of the institutional investors have done very well in the past from this cash cow in the form of large dividend payments.
If I had a magic wand I would actually like them to raise some £ to invest in the App and ageing IT systems that Card are in the process of replacing. I would prefer them to pay off the outstanding Covid debt with sales but either way I will be taking my full allocation if offered because I am a believer.

Hi PurpleInvestor funny game this isn’t it? Really is the blind leading the blind I don’t truthfully think any of us really know what we are doing ha ha.

As you know, I sold out completely and piled everything into Card but this has dropped now to a level that can’t be ignored.

Still can’t bring myself to buy Shoe Zone again though and I wouldn’t post it over there but there is never anybody in their shop!!

For a bit of fun let’s set a target for every shop to make £100 average profit per day.
15 months is roughly 65 weeks so 455 days.
So each shop would make £45,500.
Over a 1000 shops so that is over £45M.

Would you agree that £100 a day average profit is being extremely conservative ?

We are £15M short and does anyone here think they are going to do a RI to raise this? Seriously?

£10 extra per day per shop brings in another £5M
so £130 would hit the £70M target and I think we will knock this out of the park.

Hi Billybob yes I agree with you that the figures in the tables are unrealistic as far as it’s not possible at least in the first 6 months for the Card Factory to achieve the same profit figures that it had before Covid but I don’t see why they couldn’t from November onwards?
Remember these are just the monthly average so they take into account the seasonal nature of the business.
IMO the reason the share price is held back is because the majority of PIs (just like yourself and no doubt the majority here) think there is going to be a RI.
I think the complete opposite.
The Directors got round the table with the bank and they set a realistic figure to pay back and when.
£70m is easily achievable in the timescale providing there are no lockdowns.
That’s the gamble here.

Thankyou Oldham
Those 3 £9942 0.512 0.515 and 0.515 buys today are mine.
Never seen the Wrks shop so busy.
Good safe place to keep your £.

and there’s more…
Cleverly written into the loan agreement was the condition that Card can make early payments without penalty. I forget the wording and can’t be bothered to look it up but go and check.
It wouldn’t surprise me if they haven’t already started making those payments now and the Results RNS in a few weeks time informs us of this.