Member Info for romaron

I don't mind a mixture.

....and this "So far this year, speculative-grade energy companies have issued $49.5 billion of bonds, close to the full-year record of $55.9 billion set in 2012."

They probably see Europe as too woke for O&G investment but that is changing. The pickings from the low hanging fruit will be just too tempting.

Didn't COP26 do wonders for Biden and the Democrat's poll ratings. Most Americans were probably unaware it was on.

Fascinating stuff. The engineering challenges are there but not insurmountable. A reminder of the time needed to bring a new field to first oil. If we start now BBK could be ready in 2025. I'd have loved to have been in the industry. I don't think retail investors really have the patience for the time from concept to realisation and the ups and downs between.

Thanks mrd 14.40 - have you read it? I will try but first look is it's over my head. I plucked $5 out of the air because I guessed it'd be cheaper than that in the real world. I'm following on with electricity following the Orcadian presentations. They are further ahead than us with a new field so using them as an indicator/litmus for what OGA and Government want. The Cambo development will also give good pointers.

What's a swivel in FPSO terms?

Forgot. Zippy if you haven't listened to this you'll find it very informative. Cutting edge and all that. The contribution by Joel maisey of Crondall Energy especially.

https://orcadian.energy/investors/presentations/

Good points Zippy. I'm reading up on it too but I'm thinking the floating offshore is still in its infancy but if (for instance) BBK went ahead the economics would rapidly change. I posted earlier that it could add (say) $5 a barrel over the lifetime of a field but with demand likely to continue longer than many believe imo oil looks like staying higher for longer so becomes affordable. We've also got SVT that could help but distance may be a problem. I think if the UK population accept that wind needs backup then all new ventures will have wind electricity with fossil back up offshore imo. If we produce too much I'm sure somebody will buy it and we may even have a wind electricity storage solution by then. What with carbon capture and carbon credits the oil industry is fighting back. We still have cards to play.

To satisfy the demands of Eco-warriors are we to greenwash the responsibility to places like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Russia whilst continuing to hope the Norwegians will be nice to us? We will and should continue to use our indigenous industry and resource, own people and secure security of supply which is what DM said.
I’m pretty sure what most reasonable people will say and do. There are wise heads in our governments who know the real state of play. Fiddle with methane and forestry for now and let the experts get on with fulfilling the present needs of society and economics. We are on the right side of history here and behaving like sensible stewards of a situation. The world remains imperfect.

There was a debate on BBC TV last night that true to form has not been mentioned here. Probably because you needed an attention span greater than 30 seconds. Those holders in the UK can catch up the programme called Debate Night live from Glasgow but it is likely impossible for those based overseas. It’s about an hour long.
As is the case with the BBC the chosen panel was slanted towards those anti big oil.
It consisted of:
George Monbiot (nutter)
Lord Deben (who attended COP1)
Deirdre Michie (CEO OGUK)
Kate Forbes (MSP)
Joseph Sikulu (Tongan Environmental, Cultural and Queer activist)
Jake Molloy (Trade Unionist RMT and ex rig worker)

Worth watching and I’ll give my take on it which others may disagree with. I lost interest in Monbiot when he said we need to stop eating MEAT, now. An idealist stating we need to stop being consumers and become citizens – whatever that means and of course bring in a wealth tax. Lord Deben was thoughtful but lost an important clash with DM imo.
Sikulu was OK but we’ve heard enough about colonisation lately and it wasn’t my fault. Deirdre Michie was masterful and in full command of her brief. Jake Molloy even agreed with her which is unusual in itself (which he said) and was a thoughtful and valuable contributor.
KF kept boasting that Scotland would be net zero by 2045 and the rest of the UK by 2050 but would not be drawn on Cambo going ahead (it will imo).
Coal was of course mentioned and the fact that we closed mines back around 1984 but as Jake Molloy pointed out. We finished with coal mining here but imported coal from other countries for the next 30 years. That was a transition too.
Monbiot said just leave gas and oil in the ground, now. JM said that would result in freezing pensioners and that is not a good look. DM said we’d then have to import from places like Norway, Qatar and Russia. Putting 10’s of thousands of workers out of work.
The interesting debate was at 33.00 minutes when Lord Deben said that we’re turning off oil and gas in 2035. No more need to keep lifting oil as from 2035 there will be “no generation by oil and gas” (to loud cheers). Bad news for Cambo and BBK for instance.
DM responded by saying that based on facts and data that just isn’t true. Based on the Committee on Climate Change we (in the UK) are still going to need oil and gas for up to 50 percent of our energy needs/use and that’s in 2050. LD was trying to conflate electricity power with overall fossil needs for a successful transition. DM went further and said that we are NET IMPORTERS of oil and gas and will NEVER produce more than we need.

The heavyweights have left Glasgow and their minions will fill in the details. In this geopolitical climate it really isn't in anyone's interest to antagonise the US so attempts to keep a lid on oil will be tried (they'll fail) for reasons the activists will not accept. Biden wouldn't survive five dollar gas will annihilate him in the midterms and the US still controls most of the world's capitalo. They have levers. We thyen have a potential threat from a Covid flare up in China. Nothing has really changed other than a greater acceptance that there will be a GRADUAL transition. People screaming that we need to do it now is imbecilic in the extreme because it would be impossible. We are not Shell or Exxon and the company has an almost guaranteed minimum life of 13 years (2035). The UK needs us and that'll do for me.

Build it and they will come (where else are they going to go?).

October percentages from Euroclear
ENQ 3.00
HBR 2.19
TLW 5.9
CNA 9.9
BP 3.76
RDSA 1.81
RDSB 3.56
CNE 6.18
ENOG 3.33

Surprised at CNE and I put CNA in because they own Spirit.

Last month we were 3.99% so lower.

Pelle - only a quick google so I'm happy with ballpark figures for now. We'll have some more accurate figures later this month. BP had Q3 today but with the media frenzy at the moment not worth too much time spent analysing. The world could be very different in 3 months but oil stocks are priced on a worse case scenario imo. We'll let the numbers do the talking. The industry together with OGA has more chance of producing headlines for emission reductions than the growth of renewables imo.
I've been reading up on Orcadian. I'm not as convinced as Therapist but they've got plenty of industry interest but the financiers will wait until the dust on COP26 settles before making any decisions. We can see why EP has value. Pilot or Bressay potentiality. Our experience and capabilities with the historical connections make it a possibility whilst Bressay/Bentley are compelling. The NS will last longer than our current reserves so I expect some new fields or at the very least capex for infill drilling.
I'd imagine that the EnQuest board are getting a lot of interest and approaches both ways. I'm still intrigued by Equinor activity. They don't seem to be as sheepish as the UK oilers and continue to explore. We also saw the Norwegian entrepreneur Paal Hveem take a big stake in Waldorf. Are they more Viking than us?

Google "Generally, net debt-to-EBITDA ratios of less than 3 are considered acceptable. The lower the ratio, the higher the probability of the firm successfully paying off its debt. Ratios higher than 3 or 4 serve as “red flags” and indicate that the company may be financially distressed in the future."
BP 4.59
Shell 3.66
Equinor 1.21
Tullow 7.63

They're all over the place and of course miles apart in credit rating etc.. but your argument is factual Pelle. If the MC doesn't move then dividends will have to cascade to compensate following shareholder pressure. Thing is - watchers will jealously see EnQuest shareholders taking their cash away in wheelbarrows and wonder how to get some of the action? They'll have to buy shares. So the ESG crowd will stick with their decision and a new rump of shareholders will replace them (Vacuums and all that) some of whom have already turned up. Some are prepared to hold their noses, ignore the wailing and take the cash. There is a clear division now and those of a more sceptical view are powerful and entrenched - US, China, Australia, india, Japan and quite a few in Europe who don't believe transition will be so simple or as cheap as those with vested interests keep pushing down our throats with unproven solutions that only work with Unicorn tears and wiring made from gold. I wonder what OPEC think? Being handed a monopoly wasn't expected.

Hi guys, I enjoy Steve Brown's presentations because every one is a pitch and there's a kinda honesty in that. We get what he is putting in front of the professionals. If he can get a large enough retail base it will help him clinch what he needs most; FINANCE.
He may well be right, I'm not a geologist or engineer but in simple terms on a new field you have drilling and then a rig or FPSO plus seed money for opex and other capex etc.... If he could clinch a FPSO deal it means around half the field is financed. It then makes getting to FDP that much easier and more likely. I've learned a lot from his presentations. He is well known as is the Pilot Field to EnQuest that's for sure.

It is a big punt but his arguments about saving on emissions sound reasonable to me. He wouldn't last 5 minutes with a professional team if he is talking fairy stories and technology moves fast in oil because the rewards are so great. The biggest barrier is a moratorium on development and although we're only 2 days into COP26 there has been nothing so far that will speed up the transition. I think let the green technology prove itself (its had enough subsidy) and all industries will move towards it. That could be a WIN/WIN for the planet.
I'm a little surprised that Norway seems prepared more than us [UK] to keep fossil fuels going. Why are Euinor continuing to explore in this rabid ESG world? Perhaps our Scandinavian friends have a view about their neighbours?

Thanks for that Therapist - basically reboot. I struggled with analogue too.

I suspect you know a little more about Steve Brown of Orcadian than I do. I'm neutral about him but you aren't a fan. This from the Placera Swedish site: https://orcadian.energy/fpso-expressions-of-interest/

If you go on the Orcadian site there are several times that EnQuest and the Pilot Filed bump into each other (look under about us) and I missed this before "Petrofac negotiate a deal to acquire a 100% interest in the Elke discovery. This negotiation was led by Steve Brown, who at the time was Petrofac’s head of business development, and Richard Hall, who had drilled the discovery well with Murphy." 2003/2004

I am pretty certain it is the same Richard Hall of Kraken FPSO and by now he is probably considered an expert in HO and FPSO requirements. We even had a license to the Pilot field 2011-2013. There are obviously coincidences and people bumping into each other a lot the time in the NS but with the EnQuest Producer on warm stack it does make you wonder?

*I look at the Placers site and I had it on English. It has flicked back to Swedish. How do I click back on to English again?
https://www.avanza.se/placera/forum/forum/enquest.0.html#8161347

"Energy giant Equinor has made an oil discovery in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea.
Alongside partners PGNiG Upstream Norway and Longboat Energy Norway, the state owned company struck oil in exploration well 6407 / 1-9 – Egyptian Vulture
Preliminary estimates show that between 3 and 10 million standard cubic meters of recoverable oil equivalents have been proven in the well. That’s the equivalent of between 19 and 62 million barrels.
Kristin Westvik, area director for exploration and production north at Equinor, said: “Our ambition is to transform the shelf from an oil and gas province to a broad energy province that will ensure value creation from the shelf in the decades to come. In this ambition, our exploration activities are central.”
She added that future value creation will largely come from increased recovery from existing fields, and connection of new discoveries close to existing infrastructure.
The discovery is the sixth Equinor has made on the Norwegian shelf so far this year."

From EnergyVoice. Well they're not hanging about. No doubt we'll have a little inside track knowledge from having Liv Stubholt as a new NED. Good omen for Bressay.

and this .....https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1454753987526336513

hopefully Swedish holders can see the interview too.

The fudge will be that any new development will have to include reduced emissions. Fair enough. If the technology costs (say) $5 a barrel and oil stays above $70 we can live with that. (I expect higher).

"climate compatability check-point" There is a brand new language we'll need to learn. The conversation ends with
"shall we wait and see what the decision is/" [on Cambo] "we shall".

*Last night i went out fighting zombies. They were much smaller than I'd thought they'd be.

Hi Joe - I have no idea what you are talking about. Is the question directed to me because I am looking for information from people with more knowledge than me and wondered if there is a status report for all fields not yet at FDP level. I gave up trying to negotiate the OGA website when they "upgraded it". Upgraded beyond my computer ability more like.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/102821-interview-all-undeveloped-nsea-projects-should-face-environmental-review-scottish-minister

We get a mention, as does Equinor. If anybody has any info to add to what those "waiting in the wings"have as regards status and ranking it would be helpful. Neither Bentley or Bressay are exploration as they went in quite deep at Bentley with emvironmental assessment and did an extended well test lifting 135,000 barrels. From memory they also sold data to Statoil for $15mio which was used for a decision on Bressay. They mothballed Bressay but I wouldn't necessarily say it was the data more a case of how the global oil industry was going. They did go ahead with Mariner mthough. I'll stop there as out of my depth.

We are onto a winner without BBK. Get it past the regulators and we are flying.

Top tip. Unless you are 100% sure, do not compliment a lady on her Halloween outfit.

They pile up for this Government. On R4 today I was surprised to hear that 70% of heating in Northern Ireland is by OIL. I called a pal who lives in Monaghan who I know makes a bit on the side for transport of heating oil. He told me that it is €62.9 cents in NI and €85.9 cents in the Republic. He is vehemently against heat pumps and sent me this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhAKMAcmJFg&t=8s
My point is that we've seen how complicated it got with Brexit and Irish borders and to get them onside the Government resorts to the usual tactic of throwing money at the problem. If oil continues to rise they haven't even got gas throughout the Republc (only Dublin and he thinks Cork) and they've banned using peat and instead import it from the UK and Germany according to him. What happens if we have a bad winter and the Irish are impacted by unaffordable energy. I can just see the headlines - "A potato famine for the modern age".
In the scheme of things Ireland is a small place and barely tolerated by Westminster but they are VOCAL and have a lot of friends around the world. His business will also get increased demand from the South. He'll need it to keep warm.

Isn't life wonderful.

One other thing to remember about capital cost is that inflation is growing so maybe that is why Barclays lifted from 10>12%. Still a margin for error imo.