Member Info for romaron

Been out most of afternoon in sunny Hackney. Remind me - who were the posters that said the GE deal had problems and looked like it might fail with added criticism of our management?

Ignore chilting. He comes out with ridiculous comments that have no factual basis. Now he is a psychoanalyst. I think he may be the one with the problem because he is an "expert" in so many fields and may have a multiple personality disorder.

EnQuest has a strong board that can override AB if he took a dictatorial position although his shareholding is influential. There are plusses and minuses in that but I'm guessing he doesn't want to lose money. I've seen nothing in the 7 years I have been invested here to suggest that ESG is not being followed. Obviously the E has impacted the share price for every company but we have always followed the rules and made behind the scene used political pressure and assisted focus groups but that applies to every industry from the media to tobacco. S is covered by donations and many other actions including Jonathan Swinney sleeping on the street to support homelessness. The Amjad and Suha Bseisu Foundation helps many students and who knows, may even provide his successor. As for G read the biographies of the board members are impressive and of course they are not anonymous. In life the only thing you can guarantee is your good name and they already have that along with financial independence so imagine they will continue. There are other large shareholders and they too have influence. I imagine they'd like to see a cash return or are the likes of Jeff Currie and Eric Nuttall wrong?

Chilting continues to haunt this message board even though he has been found out but that is his obsession. It is unclear that he is even a holder of the stock. If he is it would be strange with his continuous negative posting and the sheer number of them. I have responded to a post of his that will delight him; it is his "raison d'être " that most of us find sad. Personally I cannot see the point of trolling but then I'm not a psychoanalyst.

Offer them cash in growing amounts and they will come running.

There are covenants preventing both at present Mriggy but our situation is improving so quickly that they cannot be far away. AB plays them down to a point because a lot of shareholders behave like children with a whine "but you promised". He says only what a responsible CEO would say but there is a growing demand across the whole sector to reward shareholders and that is something he cannot ignore. All oil companies will soon be judged by shareholder returns in the next few years imo.
Not the exact answer you want but others here will have the relevant covenants to hand. Obviously put in place by our creditors who want comfort that the money lent isn't an IN OUT gift that more unscrupulous companies have been known for. Once the debt is at a certain level the limiter is released.

I make you right Pelle. All the data and reporting agrees that all in the EMP Regime are undervalued but it is what it is. EnQuest is at the top of the leader board for share performance in some tables and it depends on what measures you're using but many have fallen by the wayside or are in a zombie state.
Using Aramco who have been going barely a year and certainly won't be running out of reserves anytime soon. They're up 17% since their IPO. Using the same time scale - BP + 29%, Shell +35% CNE - 3%, TLW + 59%, HBR -10% and ENQ with +115%.
I cannot understand HBR being negative or why BP & Shell with the money spent on ESG promotion and paying dividends don't head the leader boards.
Those calling for AB's head are hardly the most consistent posters and are day traders or trolls who clearly have poor timing or are currently short. Who do they imagine could do it better? (I hear Steve Bruce is available).
Unfortunately we are in the same mix and it is unlikely to change soon. We have a few projects and situation that could set our price alight but I'm afraid that our recovery may well be slower than most hope for but it is coming and may well speed up for us as we are much more nimble and will soon be able to afford dividend if the macro doesn't change too much.
I'm quite happy to accept a mix of dividends and buybacks in the future with the share price losing its relevancy. It'll be the same result. You cannot ignore FCF and our tax situation couldn't be much better. Sentiment does change and technology works both ways. Production and revenue up - emissions down. Still not good enough for some but the real world is like that. You have to play the hand your dealt.

Build it and they will come.

Extract from Jeff Currie transcript dated 19 October purloined from the Swedish forum & posted by drakek:

"Because they were operating at like 105 to 115% *[US Shale] of cashflow. So, you know, what they were doing is they were basically growing volumes on the expectation of future returns. But obviously when you grew all those volumes, you would get crushed on the backend in terms of what was being delivered. And so the focus left being a focus on ROE, and instead being a focus on growth. Today, the focus is on ROE. They want to get those returns on equity up. And by the way, the investors who own this company, they want their money back. You know, the OPEC ministers want their money. Everybody wants their money back from the disastrous experience over the course of the last five to seven years. So at this point, you know, you look at why aren't they drilling because for the first time in nearly a decade, and in fact, you probably have to go back, yeah, you got to go back to ’07, ‘08, that these companies are finally getting free cash flow going up"

I'd say anything by Jeff Currie is essential reading; this certainly is.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/yzjfk83gynmq9m2/HFIR%202021%20Transcript%20Goldman%E2%80%99s%20Jeff%20Currie%20on%20the%20Commodities%20Supercycle%20-%20Bloomberg.pdf?dl=0

Hi onedb – bit more colour. Back in the days of steam everything FX went through the banks. Most trades were too small to hedge and the brokers wouldn’t look at anything less than $1mio. Nowadays those individuals making those trades can often go straight to market via electronic platforms and there is a Universe of them. A bit like Starbuck’s H.O. instead of getting braches daily sales get everything live, individual coffees and muffins, with pointy heads breaking that down further into specific ingredients. I very occasionally look at the trades and you often come across a string of them for similar amounts as though the instigator is too lazy to bundle them. Maybe it was a button press that took out every bid/offer up to a level. Who knows, who really cares? But, you can bet that some algorithm has a good idea and the info goes somewhere to click another action.
Your point about future EnQuest pricing is of value. There are prices out there and I’m holding 2,000
Dec spread and it closed last night at 25.77-26.08. March is 25.96-26.27. Quite big spreads but holding a position at 26.27 5 months ahead looks tasty.
If City Index can go 6 months and futures a year in size then it is not beyond the ability of derivative traders to accommodate Helikon. I met some of these guys who created synthetic derivatives. I met one at SBC who went to Stanford and did Particle Physics. He really was a rocket scientist. I was close to another at Chase (now JPM) who would make me the odd 2 year price. When I wanted to know more he said that the variables got fiendishly complicated further out and I wouldn’t understand; he did Maths at Cambridge. We did employ the brother-in-law of the Chemical trader who created a program to calculate the 2 year price. We cleaned up. There were threats that we had stolen intellectual property but as I said; he was family. Longer dates were particularly active in Italian Lira as the swaps directly relate to bond prices and they funded their National Debt through regular auctions of BOT’s and new issues of debt which is catnip to Investment banks.
City Index may not hedge my 2000 (equivalent to 200,000 shares) but it adds up and as you say they’d have to go in and out at different times. Forward share prices will link to oil futures as you can hardly ignore them. Also debt will play its part.
Over the past few days the HYN has been going in the opposite direction to the RB. Not massively but Tullow has gone up. I read this (may be wrong) as some funds moving out of EnQuest because basically they’ve made their money and although most retail would be happy with a 7%+ return they are looking for more with distressed debt with higher returns. They could even be transferring it to another inhouse fund as it has become investible now. It might also be an early signal that we’re preparing for a new HYN issue.
Moody’s upgrade soon?

Be Lucky

Sure onedb - I'd look forward to it. I'm retired and always interested in meeting new people. Glad that you have a professional side and take it seriously. It is the constant news and information flow that is hard to get (and afford) as a private individual.
I spent too long staring at screens (even worse when you had the wrong position) and have little interest in revisiting. My discipline wasn't the best even then and it certainly hasn't improved. There's a few of us who are in touch directly as well as on the message board.

Be lucky

you can get me on romaron49@gmail.com

F*ck insulation. A new house.

Fantastic reply Dreamer - Thank you. You are an asset to this message board. I already have a pressurised Megaflo cylinder. May I be cheeky and ask what size air-source heat pump for a 500 sq.m would require and price. Are there any data sheet out there giving the radiator size requirement for a room?

I'll level with you. In the 60's my father had a coal round and his own lorry. We also had a cash operated electricity meter. The cooking gas was described as "coal gas" and prededed North Sea gas. We even had racing pigeons and Great North Road racing started at Peterborough and worked up weekly to Fraserburgh, Thurso and Lerwick through Selby.

Thanks Tigar. "cost above what her old oil system did" and that would have been expensive. If I had oil I'd definitely consider a heat pump. You use yours as back-up but I'm guessing it wouldn't run the heating alone without the gas in winter?
I'm surprised that she reckons 2 powermatics would be cheaper than her heat pump. Not trying to deprecate heat pumps but they're not as simple or economic as the Government or salesmen are saying.
This is what we're fighting against as shareholders here. The economics are massively in our favour but public opinion isn't. My argument is that it is all hot air and promises. There isn't a chance in hell that they will meet targets without enormous subsidies. Energy bill payers have votes. The Government knows this so hide the truth.

and hitman - they ain't gonna tell you how they did it. Might be worth cornering John Swinney or other officers at an AGM to see if they have an idea.

Hi onedb - call it serendipity but I bumped into Tony Shiret lunchtime. He is a long standing analyst that I have known for over 20 years. I asked him directly "what is an equity swap" and gave him details of the Helikon trade. He replied (as would I) that it is an impossible request because you are missing parts of the trade/equation. One thing for sure is that a bigger hedge fund would have to be involved and I'd suspect Jefferies or Goldmans. I'm not sure that was what you're referring to but as for the multitude of movements and trades each day I have another explanation.
In the days of steam (1970's) practically every foreign exchange trade went through a bank's dealing room and larger trades also included a broker. In fact if you dealt directly with another London bank in a swap you had to (Bank of England rules) give details to a selected broker (abolished mid 70's). Everything was recorded.
The trading rooms would have to be involved in everything. Promissory notes, trade bills, ECGDs, Trade Finance, Traveller's cheques etc...but of course the main trading was speculation but nowhere near the scale of present movements. As sophistication improved companies no longer put everything through their banks. Departments within an organisation didn't have to do everything inhouse. They could net out with other counterparties and run smaller risks. What we are doing here would have been impossible back then. The phenomenal growth in transactions away from regulatory and reporting eyes now means that almost nobody knows exactly what is going on. I stopped trying years ago.
There are various ways to (attempt) take advantage of EnQuest share movements if you're a trader but unless you have size to do I'd suggest something like City Index would suit most. Is there another outlet for bigger punters? I don't know. What I do know is that nothing would surprise me with the pointy heads and mathematical ability of derivative traders.

I'll head anything not directly EnQuest related Off Topic (O/T). It seldom affects the price and will only interest a few of you so the majority can safely ignore.
Hi Dreamer81 re your 12.01 post. I'm hoping you know more than your post because I have a questions. I was involved with heat pumps a decade or so ago and at the time there weren't many to choose from and the debate was about Mitsubishi boilers. Several heating engineers were complaining about the multiples of converting electricity to home heating. There were manufacturer's claims of up to 4 X but they were getting barely 2X. I'm sure there have been improvements since but I recently tried to get the optimum performance figures for radiator size per room needed for myself. I want the figures unadorned and it looks like I'll need a F.O.I. request to get them (joking). My point is that there are elements of thermal mass involved and for optimum performance you need tightness, insulation and the correct heat transmitters to get maximum performance. A lot of companies are saying that as many homes have oversized radiators anyway so you might be able to get away with existing rads. That is salesman talk and in a worst scenario you might need the heat pump on 24/7. A bit like when car manufacturers quoted mileage for their models e.g. driving at no more than 30 mph, coasting downhill, little braking and plenty of anticipation. Do you know the optimum radiator size for space heating by heat pump?
An inefficient heat pump won't compete with fossil fuels and most of our properties are old and leaky. Even an efficient one requires further efficiencies in retro fitting and does anybody really trust builders at the lower end of housing to understand or not cut corners regarding installations. I'm not even convinced they'll do new-bui
I read that heat pumps are successful in Sweden but they have always beehn ahead of us in tightness and insulation as it gets proper cold out there. They are anyway a strange race as they enjoy rolling around naked in the snow and whipping themselves with birch twigs (*could be a Therapist connection) and would happily spend hours sitting on an ice floe not catching anything.
1kW of electricity is used to extract 2.2kW of renewable heat energy from the air and produce a higghly efficient output of 3.2kW heat. So 3 times as much energy as it uses compared to a traditional boiler which turns 92% of the fuel it uses into energy. Pretending cost doesn't come into it is puerile and disingenuous. That is what this present Government is doing.

*there was a Radio4 programme today c.12.30 with 3 users asked their views. One lived in a rural area and replaced an oil boiler. A pensioner in a 2 bed bungalow who did it to save her grandchild's future and complained about how long it took to become "efficient" and the cost of £12k. Both brought in the grants and their "persuasive" effect. It didn't come over as wholehearted support. The 3rd seemed h

spin - you're a frigging Luddite drowning in experience and common sense. What happened to the "dreams".

onedb - I'm going out but you're not referring to Helikon are you? There are many ways to skin a cat but the RNS means that they did BUY into EnQuest.
What you're describing is the derivatives, pricing and hedging that you've studied and are beyond me. If google can tell me what I want for dinner and the reason I go shopping then there are even more financial algorithms that never sleep. I never underestimate what traders and quants can come up with but they still cannot defeat the mass migration that we've seen from fossil fuels. I think it's overdone and with your skills you will find many opportunities.
I did FX swaps for 27 but never fully understood the intracacies of the bond market or how they tied up with futures and options. I was in very good company because neither did my contemporaries. The world is a big place.

I keep getting side tracked. I am definitely going out now. I have another explanation to add to yours when I get back.

Juan - it also is the reason for high infant mortality and lung disease in Africa. I must say your blanket idea is an improvement on my butterfly net.

Auson - they are working on this. Bit like adding ethanol to petrol. It'll be slow, slow, slow. Hydrogen makes existing pipes brittle so might need a new grid. I don't really wish to engage in details as I feel I've bored enough today. There is resistance against moving too fast whilst Russia and China have 2060 I can't see India accepting anything sooner. I couldn't care less if I'm lazily labelled a Luddite but I have plenty of friends. Half the world at least who expect to be using fossil fuels for the foreseeable future.

Be Lucky

Stanley - you clearly lack common sense. Many here, who do possess it, will have noticed that people on low or fixed incomes are often those most in fuel poverty. It always saddened me to see proud older people retreat into one heated room in their home and use an electric heater to keep warm. You blithely quote stuff you know zero about. For your info I had two careers. One in the City and another as a surveyor. I also have a Level 3 Diploma in Green Deal Domestic Advice Training from BRE. It is very easy to lose track of updates but some facts are fundamental and unchanging.

I have sat in a meeting with Grant Shapps when he was a Housing Minister and several Labour Housing Ministers at Eland House around 2010. I know a lot about flat management and whenever I brought up the need for legislation regarding insulation I was silenced. Too difficult and too expensive. They were always after headlines and where to sprinkle their (our taxpayer) largesse.

As for Luddite I think it's the activists who have little life experience and wish for a return to pre-industrial times who are the Luddites and what's not green about having a team of oxen.
*There were complaints about the smell but the oxen soon got used to it.

You won't stop but I have things to do so carry on. We've established you have no qualifications but plenty of opinion and little common sense but we'd kinda guessed that anyway.

Electric heaters have written on them 100% efficient. That is true. For balance thjey should have 4 X as expensive on them as well. I surveyed a new block of flats where two young Geordie students were freezing and wearing overcoats. I jokingly said that I thought they were tough from up there and they just said they couldn't afford to turn the heating on.

Stanley - what are your qualifications in respect of heating and insulation?

error - just spotted in my last sentence. Should read "electric Ferraris".