Member Info for romaron

I was watching an Insulate Britain protestor passively answering questions. His commitment was total but his responses and knowledge was lamentable about Insulation. The thing I took away from it was his knowing smile basking in his nirvana. I tholught to myself that this was probbaly the same smile that Latimer and Ridley wore as they were tied to the stake.

You left Queenie out Auson. Still, if Charles can pull himself away from the conversation with his plants he's a good enough replacemnet. It's all posturing after all.

onedb - it isn't even a shake out. You know yourself that the majority like to be flat going into something that might be a game changer (it won't imo). Others have placed their bets and will wait for the outcome.

The traditional valuations of companies is exactly that "traditional". We are seeing changes in practically everything none more so than the media with facebook, twitter etc... and viewers turning away from the traditional media. Look at BBC for example which is suffering regular attacks from the government and supporters (viewers) dwindling as fast as the Church of England congregations. Young people don't get their news from the BBC. I believe BBC news is relevant and impartial but that doesn't matter if large chunks of the population don't watch it.
I think valuations need a rethink. With the rate of change so fast the old system of assuming a company was kinda immortal or at least (say) 15 years. Unless they hit real change they'd go on forever. It wasn't ever true but human beings like some order or near term reliability. With the continual attacks the fossil fuel industries have made many think it'll be gone in a year or two, especially in the West and the UK in particular. So, you are not going to get a valuation as of old but against that we are highly investible if we were just allowed to be run into the ground with existing reserves. People might say what if a moratorium was placed on NS O&G production? I'd say impossible! It can't be closed or you'd have the industry suing the Government for broken contracts and other countries would not invest here in the future as the country couldn't be trusted. And that's before we look at security and the gap that renewables will not be able to fill for decades yet. The revenue from NS is also of use as is the jobs it provides.
Sorry if I appear a little O/T here E but it does feed into what you're saying.

The Central Finance Board of the Methodist Church, the Presbyterian Curch of Wales, the Catholic Bishops' Conference of Scotland and 15 Dioces in the UK and Ireland are among the bodies committing to sellout of coal, oil and gas companies. In total more than 70 faith institutions with an excess of $4.2 billion have announced divestment from fossil fuels. Add on six cities including Glasgow also formally divesting. Around the world in 71 countries it adds up to $39 trillionof assets under management have now committed to some form of divestment from fossil fuels.
Sticking with the UK I think it's rich that these Institutions who have empty churches and whose CEO hasn't been seen for over two millenia (apart from the brief "Resurrection Tour" of 40 days). Have the temerity to ram a second belief down our throats. Still, it is what it is but I think it is time we gave up any thought of oil being a large component of the FTSE 100 which is where we could easily be heading. I think HBR will get there.
It doesn't mean we become valueless just that we will be valued on a much shorter time base with the clamour at the gates to shut us down tomorrow continuing. Belief is a strong driver for those of a religious bent and doesn't rely on facts whilst QAnon and other conspi****** theories enter the debate. I'll accept fossil fuels are dirty but they won't be ditched until a commercial alternative is ready, proven and above all economic.
I consider the belief in renewables is over-hyped and fossil fuels will be around long past the net zero date of 2050 before which the Christian CEO is expected to return for some kind of AGM according to a large body of US supporters.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/many-americans-expect-jesus-return-by-2050/

Who knows, he may turn water into hydrogen?

Hi Juan - the problem is they get the media attention. There is a popular bias against the industry and politicians see possibly more votes by going along with them. They'll fudge something together and I'm hoping there is enough resistance to prevent our investment taking another hit. I take solace that Insulate Britain are now getting publicity for something that has been part of law for selling houses since 2008 when Energy Performance Certificates became mandatory.

Interesting development today with Petrofac (PFC). I feel their pain but could be an interesting investment later. I don't see it as a falling knife. Mind you Ammu as to be expected is gleefully sh*tting over decent people.

What, and miss out on the extraordinary and colourful range of subjects to be discussed. Recent Oxford English Dictionary update.

Eco-anxiety Global heating
Net Zero Climate denier
Climate crisis Climate sceptic
Climate catastrophe Climate denialism
Climate emergency Climate justice
Climate refugee Climate strike

This is what the language must be like inside a cult.

I wondered if EnQuest would send a representative to COP26. On the basis that we are part of the fossil fuel industry and without the likes of us it is going to be a bit of a "one sided" talking shop.
Even Pelle's last post includes the phrase "failed asset base". I think Australia, Canada, US, India, Japan and China, amongst others, would contest this.
I suppose the industry is represented by Saudi Arabia and producers who are attending whilst some of the above will attend.
I can understand the companies being nervous of attending because these things do tend to get a bit "shouty" and I read in the papers (probably an exaggeration) that up to 150,000 'supporters' will attend along with 25,000 delegates. I too would be worried about being glued to a protestor for several hours myself.

I wonder if there is any direct industry representation? Are we banned? Were invitations sent out?

I'm thinking kangaroo courts, public lynchings and this is a fair trial with a foregone conclusion to hang 'em in the morning.

How will the industry respond. It used to be the case that the accused attended the trial?

I emailed EnQuest. They aren't attending.

Be Lucky

Hi HMH - I think this is only the beginning. A BUY order came from somewhere because it is rare to see our peers fly too (HBR, CNE) and the oil price has had less immediate impact over the past weeks. I suppose the more moronic posters will come out with glib answers like they were oversold, behind the trend, gaining momentum etc.. which frankly are meaningless phrases. I don't know about you but I smell something in the air. In the midst of the media war on fossil fuels some smart money has started to accumulate oil stocks.
There is always a delay when news like GE comes out as some investors/analysts want evidence that it has gone through whilst most retail doesn't understand the technicals and wait toifollow the money.
I couldn't agree more with you about chilting. You wouldn't let him into your company in a bar because he is extremely dull and pedantic. I started the HYN post but as usual it becomes hijacked by posters who pour puerile inanities over what could be an interesting discourse. I had my view but I think Auson's is more likely and have changed it (I think he'll be proved right when October stock on loan is released).
I've decided to Filter chilting but doubt he'll reciprocate because he needs me for whatever reason. I don't need him as I didn't need his biggest fan but they'll continue to barge in, they can't help themselves. It may be a condition.

Appreciate your input as always.

Best,

Nooooooooo - it's three now. Beginning to get nervous. Another investor has warned me not to invoke the Beetlejuice mantra and say troll three times in response. Spooky, especially with Halloween coming up.

Don't mess with the unknown.

Spoke too soon. Two filtered green messages. Probably triggered an algo writing "trolls".

Sorry to go on (I hope I haven't filled the troll vacuum) but Auson's point is valid. If nothing changed you'd almost always be better off holding a bond than the equity. You were getting 7% for HYN and zero for equity. You can borrow equity (short cover) quite cheaply and I have heard figures of half percent (I don't know actuals). At times the HYN have outperformed the equity as well (they went to 30 cents) so hard to compare but capital appreciation as well.
Be interesting to see the stock on loan at end of October, unless someone can get an up-to-date (Markit?) figure.

Good point Auson. More likely than my theory. The important thing is they are BUYING equity. There was that residual stock on loan of 3.99% at the end of September.

I'd forgotten about death spiral financing. Long time since I had an AIM stock or anything within 100 miles of David Lenigas.

Down again today about an 1/8th of a percent to 96.481. Highest I've seen was 98.70 on 16 Sept 2021 [59.883 on 16 Sept 2020]

Doesn't make much sense to me but professional holders will know this company well. I'm sticking with my theory that they see an eye-watering opportunity in the equity and their risk doesn't really change regarding default exposure. So sell the HYN and buy the equity. Happy to be shot down.

*RB looks like breaching par but then has a larger retail holding.

Exactly. You p*sspot around without knowing the true price. I sold 2 x 100 lots on City Index just to prove I still could (I have a frozen shoulder when it comes to selling EnQuest). I did 100 at 26.58 and the second i actually put an offer inside (27.02). It went in a blink. The offer side is the weak side.
In FX I've seen the big traders move prices blatantly by scooping up the offer and emptying the market. They then get asked for a price back and have moved it up into a fifferent range with the bid higher than the offer they took. Other rules on size is you were permitted to ask when quoting size "is that your full amount".
True stories: A young trader at Bankers Trust who was having a good run asked for a swap price in size. I asked Danny at Salomons who was a legend (he could liquidate any FX position worldwide for Salomons at the time) for a price "in size".
Bankers hit it and when asked the amount Bankers said "his f*cking amount".
I went back to Danny and said "he said your amount Danny".
Danny said "he does understand what that means?" (it means you are expected to do the full amount). I went away and Bankers agreed. By now I am ordering the champagne.
I hit Bankers with the amount and a sheepish young trader said, his voice breaking "I'll do half".
I went back to Danny and told him. He replied "tell him I'm calling his boss."
A few minutes later a squeaky voice from the Bankers box said "All done."
I remember a Morgan Stanley trader ask me if he could bid for ALL the Italian BOTs at one auction. I told him only if he wanted the roof to fall on him when the Italian Central Bank called his boss.
In 2015 when the peg on the Euro/Chf was removed 2 fossil traders at City were accused of not supporting the market and letting down the reputation of the bank and the sales desk. They replied that they had quoted throughout by using old technology as the electronic system had collapsed due to demand. They used the telephone and contacts. They made their annual bonus/target by lunchtime.

Energy markets could get very interesting once COP26 is out of the way. EnQuest is on the radar now.

Volume looks disappointing 3,633,638 on LSE (delayed min 15m) but the trades recorded don't have any size. 150k, 137k x2
but there will be others off-book not yet recorded. The interesting numbers will be later and after books closed. Point of post is that we have no idea of what the MMs are doing but larger participants will have a clue as they will be asked for prices. There is also the fact that if one MM is being excluded he'll be chasing clues and nervousness increases as he hunts for deals. If you are a bank with an order you will try disinformation and camouflage to get the order done at best. Tonight we'll see what went through. We also know that large trades are sometimes delayed by 2 days. What is on the LSE page is NOT what is happening. What we don't see is more important.

Happy Days.

Those who compare the age in which their lot has fallen with a golden age which exists only in imagination, may talk of degeneracy and decay; but no man who is correctly informed as to the past, will be disposed to take a morose or desponding view of the present. -Thomas Babington Macaulay, author and statesman (25 Oct 1800-1859)

But it was easier to park!

Just realised. First time this morning I've looked at it. 86.15. HBR higher too. On that basis we should be higher still.

.....and the joy of it is that Opex stays the same as the number of barrels stays the same. It really earns the title "FCF".
Kamrat - in my experience all years are "odd" in the oil world. Enjoying the posts.

mrd - apology accepted. Stupid questions aren't stupid to those asking and they can elicit good info at the right time. We all know COP26 outweighs practically everything in the next few weeks but counting barrels and tax matters are also important.

Be Lucky