Member Info for romaron

mrd - apology accepted. Stupid questions aren't stupid to those asking and they can elicit good info at the right time. We all know COP26 outweighs practically everything in the next few weeks but counting barrels and tax matters are also important.

Be Lucky

Stanley - torture any theory long enough and you can make it say what you want to hear. You would have been a star during the Inquisition. As always it is a combination of things and your "momentum" is a result of this and is anyway only of hindsight academic interest which you pride yourself on. I agree to everything you say now can you leave me alone.

Eat more protein.

Hi mrd - you probably haven't noticed but I don't worry to much about detail and don't get embarrassed when I'm wrong. I quite like throwing in odd ideas and questions, they generate debate. Some posters remain quiet if they don't understand because they're afraid of looking silly. Comments like yours encourage that attitude. I don't care. I doubt you and I will ever meet in person. When I have gone into a little more detail on something I do know about it seldom gets questioned even though I know few here would really understand it. Not out of their stupidity just in an area they're weak in. I'm weak in plenty of areas and happy to ask for more info or even challenge an "expert" when it doesn't feel right. Jan was happy to help me and I remember once someone upsetting him about his experience and he gave them a blast because he has plenty of business experience but doesn't go on about it. I do go on about FX but only because the markets at the wholesale and professional level are very different to retail. Not because of intelligence but the sheer amount of data and fresh info at your fingertips but the people aren't geniuses. Most quant or derivative traders are extremely bright but lack personality or warmth. My heat pump rant helped quite a few. i'm no expert but the one eyed man in the land of the blind at times.

I begin to warm towards you and then you slip back into your NeilHannon persona.

BTW - I've no idea what Stanley is on about and I'm confused about impairments in the accounts.

*Is JOG in trouble? Suspicious late reported trades. Goes to show what the market thinks of 2C reserves. Bressay isn't worth much either but has an experienced company and a major involved. Different story.

Specialist subjects : Italian Lira swaps between 1977-1999 and Soul music mid 60'-70's especially Otis Redding

You're right mrd - I don't know everything and have no intention of learning a new skill when others here are better at it than me. Happy with my level of ignorance. What are your fields of excellence?

Aloj 15.43 - Sorry, I missed your post "Build it and they will come" is a truism. Some attack it but is that an attack against EnQuest or me? I just like it that it winds them up.
I have been giving this a lot of thought lately and the sector/industry is dynamic and because of the amounts and potential rewards involved will always attract a lot of interest. As COP26 approaches we are getting climate concerns 24/7 rammed down our throats and it is persuasive if you don't hear the other side. I am actually considering an EV when in fact my mileage hardly warrants the 2 cars we have already. Advertising is persuasive.

But I'm afraid I'll have to disagree with you though. I think we're still building the company. I doubt we'll hit the credit markets too hard as that is a NO NO and actuallys sets the price back. For now it has to be organic growth or an alliance with somebody with deep pockets. Vendor loans help buy declining assets but for a new development you need to be "creative". The other 2 partners with us in Bressay fill that role. Equinor has the deepest pockets but HBR is a strong company imo and will only drill where they are welcome. Same with Bentley. By the time we get around to that we'll be in an even stronger position.

So we are extending and adding annexes on to our major assets and have real estate awaiting development. Guests have been patchy but bookings are picking up. We have just had 2 families book long term stays and are about to launch our winter tariffs tomorrow. We are not complacent but a company with vision and solutions to the 21st Century post Covid lifestyle.

*Voted best medium sized oil production company in the 2022 Oil Oscars NS Category
and winner of Best Director.

Hi Juan, as practically everything is in short supply at present I'm thinking that financial advice is sparse too. Many, including professionals, will have looked at the deal and its complications and turned away without investigating. Added to that it is an industry that many have deserted and some won't ever come back. So on that basis this deal is not widely known about.
Interesting that a hedge funds and a value fund have recently invested. These are the harbingers and their research will have been top notch. As I said in another in another post the bond market knows a lot about us too as the HYN would have been unloaded by many and reached 30 cents. The same analysis is required whether it's bonds or shares. We are better known than many suspect and the recent events will definitely not have gone unnoticed. Indeed, we are only told about those exceeding 3 percent.
Tomorrow is going to be interesting.

HMH - agreed. Now we need it to filter through to the wider market. I actually wonder if analysts have the clout or relevance of old. Promoting an oil company could mean your kids being ostracised at school and less funds are interested. It's easier for many to avoid the sector altogether. Problem is it is still a money spinner and an essential commodity. Those leaving have created a vacuum and those attracted by FCF are filling it. We'll have a different major shareholder list before long. Such strong flows and pressures on all participants that the future is impossible to predict. I'll stick with cash flows.

"Oil" has become a dirty word. "Profit" is still acceptable.

Thanks for that guys. One last thing. HMH indicates we can't claim back the tax paid by Sumcor from Jan 1 until the recent final completion. Juan says we can claim the tax paid by Suncor since Jan 1st back.

Which is right or have I misread?

Splitting hairs now but this must boost Monday's price as many sitting on the sidelines will have calculated the bonus of the oil increase and the tax benefits.

Build it and they will come.

Correction - Actually it is his brother Nobody who is perfect. What a family?

"No one knows the future" Aloj - can you introduce me to No One, I'll happily pay an introductory fee. I hear he is perfect as well. We have a few on here who make similar claims and one who even knows AB's thoughts and plans. I think they've been saying fibs.

One serious question. I thought we got the revenue for GE oil sales from 01/01/2021 with Suncor getting uplift if oil prices breaches staggered upper levels. In simple terms (please) what date is it from when the cash goes into EnQuest bank account?

Morning Tigar - for someone who claims not to be an accountant you seem pretty good at it to me. I can only do broad strokes and I usually follow Pelle because if he is dramatically wrong there are a few here who will pull him up for missing the deposit return on empty barrels for example. I did look at the Supplementary Prospectus (it was painful) but it looks like regulatory hoops and whilst I begrudge giving more to Suncor as the oil price rose we end up with a lot more than them in the deal. It worked (so far) better for us but Suncor aren't mugs either.
I know 2 posters on other boards who you'd think were an asset. An ex partner in a big 4 Accountancy firm and a helicopter captain who ferries workers to rigs. They aren't. I suppose the pilot has an excuse in it's noisy and there is a kinda barrier whilst the accountant becomes fixated on minutiae and lacks flexibility. It may be wrong fundamentally but you have to accept what the market says and does. Our management have excelled in these tough times. The entering into a swap at a very low price was criticised (not by me) in the depths but it may have been a panic bail out (I've done a few and you get mixed results) but weirdly calmed the market in our shares.
Still mulling the 2 RNS's. We didn't have much control over the Cobasam announcement but they seem generally to be 2 days after the event. The importance here is the percentage imo. 3.02%. It gives them cover if they want to go just below 4% and they'll have to inform if they drop below 3%. they're here for the ride and it is a simpler trade than the Helikon. The GE announcement (effectively after hours) may just be to help the computer guys and registrars enter stuff over the weekend? I think its's more than that but speculation.
What isn't speculation is Bressay. I fancy that after COP26 they'll turn their attention towards it. It is encouraging that Chysaor (HBR) are still in with 18% whilst wishing to exit Sea Lion and I suspect that Equinor can develop with us and we'll take the flak. we're not Norwegian and will be the operator. I'm actually looking forward to COP26 because there are stirrings and some activists are looking increasingly sanctimonious. What is happening to indigenous people and their representation at COP26 is nothing short of scandalous. We're still acting like missionaries.

Be Lucky

You can probably throw in the Cobasam RNS with it too. The 1 1/2 hours difference makes it appear unconnected but there is already an hours difference with clocks but I'd say anything past midday on a Friday is too late for a price reaction. It isn't called POETS day for nothing.

Ain't reflection wonderful. Desperately trying to retrieve my credibility and wake up to a text from another LTH who doesn't post here or always agree with me. He is ex Shell so always worth listening to. E121 and hitman know who I mean. He wrote:

"Some chunky trades before close.
Something I would accept if what tigar is suggesting is true
Reason whythere weren't more such trades is probably not enough liquidity
Seriously... Who would be selling now."

So obviously I reread Tigar's post and assume it is the 21.16.

The trade angle is probably correct. We know algorithms never sleep but they are excellent at being there always for the slot machine punters but when a whale wants a price or news is out they will not cover the amounts. So Friday afternoons do have similarities with Christmas eve and the day before a public holiday. The timing of the GE RNS basically made it impossible to get size done. The late trades he mentioned anyway have the reporting time against them. Off-Book means exactly that and not the time the deals were struck. Was the timing intentional or not? Well, they ain't gonna tell us so it's speculation.
If I can bump into an analyst on a Wednesday afternoon locally I don't expect he'll be anywhere strategic on a Friday afternoon unless he is involved in finalising a large deal. You don't really get anything done late on a Friday afternoon. Even monkey is out of it.
The Tigar reference is interesting. I think he's right. There are elements of an IPO imo and we will have the opening prices on Monday morning. The company will be the same but different (it makes sense to me). Will the market like the new outfit? Does the value of GE suddenly blossom as accountants, analysts and rating agencies are forced to comment. we shall see.

Apologies to Tigar. I was rude to him on the 17 June and did misread the question. It is so unlike me to be rude to honest posters.

Be Lucky

Monkey - I had to look up Porthleven. Then I had to look up Cornwall. You aren't a traveller by any chance and helping with picking the Autumn harvest? Cos if you are I'd like to put my order in now for some sprouts and parsnips?

Thanks Tigar. It's in there somewhere. Now it's real the accountants and credit rating agencies will recalibrate. Not my area at all. We'll have an interesting Monday. I'm looking for negatives but can't find any.

Thankyou MrD. Of course. I got mine then. So we shouldn't get a massive wobble on Monday morning.

I don't understand the minutiae of RNSs or the protocols etc... The 2 today. Does the admission of 190mio shares on Monday mean that the cobasam percentage drops from 3.0272 to less than the reporting level (say) 2.75% and they disappear behind a smokescreen again?

I momentarily wobbled when I thought that the increased shares meant dilution but it is one for the accountants and bookkeepers I think. I imagine it'll be a practically impossible calculation for most of the market on Monday (could there be another RNS - bus like) because all of a sudden it is real. The price of oil when first announced was c.$58 ENQ 12.74 and on 30 Jun placing details $75 ENQ 20.66. The deal looks better for us so the value has increased imo so there is some figure shuffling to be done.l I don't believe the market mechanisms are up to it so expect auctions and all sorts of flying around. That might explain the Friday announcement. Candles could be burning long into the nights this weekend. I'm not going to hazard a price but am very happy to be sitting on a long position.

Can anyone add colour or explain?

Hi onedb - today's RNS's. One confirms what was forecast and the other is welcome news of a new larger holder but both need a calmer assessment. I'm hoping O/T keeps the trolls away.
GE - I quite like the way and time EnQuest released the news. Message board readers and holders (me too) like a bit of excitement in the day but it is transitory and the company have clearly moved on. Bit like Cantona and the seagulls. They keep bad news brief and good news the same. It is for the best because as L7 says "sh*t happens". It is unavoidable and not worth the time and effort on recriminations. There is an absence of panic and desperation with EnQuest. I like that. If you want roller coaster and hyperbole follow the likes of Malcy or David Lenigas.
Cobasam - MrD made the effort to read their website and I copied. I will study it further but you might enjoy this "We use market declines to buy our selected stocks at lower prices, even if this means taking a hit in the short term. That is why we will always be invested at a level close to the statutory ceiling of 99%." Their ESG seems vague and nowhere do they give an opinion on bullfighting but they see oil demand higher (108mn barrels 2030). One of their requirements is good management teams in the companies they invest in.
I couldn't find information on their senior analysts/management and it is early research. You and others are better at it than me. I was trying to find a connection with us and as an outlier I wonder if they were in the HYN's. We could be seeing a moving out of the debt and into the equity which might explain the (to me) contrary movement of the past days in the HYNs. It isn't a totally wild suggestion as bond/note funds will have done as much research and analysis of the company as equity analysts. It would be a simple switch to the vehiclle that promises the best reward. They may already have been HYN holders. [maybe I should have moved some RB into ENQ shares]. Some are making the mistake of searching for the impossible. The stake was reached on 20 October and could have been less than 1 million as they don't have to report until they breach 3% though unlikely. I say this because why wait 2 days to announce if it was tiny. It is also accepted market practice at their level that whoever they dealt with have 2 days of grace to hedge and lay-off. You don't ostracise yourself from counter-parties and this is a professional outfit trading in professional amounts.
There will (I believe) be a connection we haven't discovered. Even without that they were in the sweet shop of undervalued stocks (oil equities) and they chose us. I think they have good taste.

Be Lucky

Be Lucky

Hi monkey - don't they bleat when their predictions collapse and their non-stop criticism and hypocrisy comes to bite 'em in the ar*e. Still, they'll soon pretend they never said it, were misunderstood or misrepresented. I must disagree with you however on your observation that Stanley is clearly intelligent. I know I'm being a little harsh on him as he has no qualifications so is self-taught. He's doing his best and to ask him to "try harder" is particularly cruel. Shame on you.

Afraid I don't have your compassion either. Daily sh*tting on the hopes of holders by presenting a gloomier picture than is warranted is not easily forgotten by me. The same applies to his most supportive collaborator (another prolific poster) who praises Stanley's advice and stock picking skills at every opportunity.

Be Lucky

Neither can I. The usual suspects I imagine. It was just noise anyway but I suppose they get something from posting rubbish and attempting to undermine genuine holders.

The timing of the RNS's stinks of confidence and contempt for day traders who'd gone home or those of us who'd popped out. The snaky Spaniards could have posted on Wednesday but of course we know they invented 'mañana' but those of a suspicious nature may have suspected the 2 days gave them an advantage. So unfair towards those waitng for their shorts to come back into profit.
As for the timing of the GE news. What have the management done? Once again they haven't gone for a short window of opportunity to manipulate the share price and kowtow to short termism. It might not last long but haven't they got a heart or any sympathy for the shorters and day traders either.
I hope the dagos realise that we don't wait unti lafter our siesta to post an RNS. Just who do they think they are!

Brexited Barnet

*we used to have a board in FX where all trades to late for the day were affixed. It was of course called the "Mañana Board"