Member Info for romaron

Yesterday morning on R4 I was surprised to hear that Australia was the dirtiest country for emissions. I didn't catch it all and not sure by what measurement but did hear about Hunter Valley which I thought was famous for wine but is also the main hub for coal. There are a lot of votes in the region and they are strong supporters of coal. The Australian's have said "whilst people are buying we'll keep digging". Their main customers are China, Japan and Korea.

Yesterday's Times: "A NS energy island surrounded by wind farms powering British homes and beyond could be a reality before 2030. National Grid is in talks with two parties about building an island that could use wind farms to millions of homes in northwest Europe Nicola Medalova, of National Grid told New Scientist Magazine. ‘We are in tripartite discussions over an energy island that the UK would likely connect to’. She would not name the two other parties the company is talking to. The concept of a renewable energy hub in the NS has been around for some time, but has yet to progress from studies to reality. The idea envisaged offshore wind farms that have a much larger capacity than those in use today, with the subsea electricity cables taking the energy to whichever country needs it most. Medalova said energy islands could either be built on an existing natural island or an artificial one. ‘You put lots of different technologies, perhaps in one space, you could have wind, hydrogen, battery storage, all the rest of it, and that can be connected to one country, two countries,’ she said. She added that the project being discussed is looking at ‘three connection points’ an indication that three companies are involved."

SVT ticks a lot of boxes and we are the operator so must have some influence. For any new field and scope 1/2 emissions it looks like you'll have to use wind pwered electricity to get inside requirements. A BBK hub could make it economically viable. Small stand alone developments will have to wait and time is running out. In cost terms it looks like most expensive wind is floating, then fixed to seabed and cheapest is land based but then there is the distance factor.

It may not directly benefit us as possibly aimed at southern NS but it gives me encouragement that we could reach BBK from SVT. Any electricians out there?

Build it and they will come
Build it and they will come

Looks like the link won't work - Go to Merryn Somerset Webb on Twitter. Go to Oct 7 and you can probably get to the link 'Hedge funds cash in as green investors dump energy stocks' with picture of Crispin Odey next to it.

“People don’t understand how much money you can make in things that people hate,”

https://www.ft.com/content/ed11c971-be02-47dc-875b-90762b35080ee

I hope the link works.

Glad a polar bear didn't get you Modestus.

One last thing. Shorting isn't always a singular attack. You could for example use it as a hedge against (say) buying oil or going long on another oil company e.g. Buy Shell Sell EnQuest - even if the prices didn't move you'd reap the dividend and avoid a capital loss. A long time ago I posted on here sell PMO and TLW buy EnQuest. Of course I never did it but it would have been a big winner. To take your profit you'd have sold enquest bought back PMO/TLW. There are so many possibilities that you shouldn't spend too long wondering.

Good morning Pelle. A weekend of reflection for the investment community. I was surprised by the share volume in Sweden. Maybe the shorting (could still be there?) originated from your side. A pal reckons the shorters engineered the recent drop to exit at a better price. I'm not so sure but we'll never know. I've still got the spread bet we took out when the price was around 14p. I had to top up a few times because I was close to my my leverage but its 1800 lots now. I remember wishing I'd hit a spike at 17p then 20p etc... I did sell the odd lot so actually improved the average. Joke is the money was for a new boiler. I've even looked a t a heat pump but I cannot do underfloor downstairs except at great expense (ripping up concrete) and they say that you can use radiators up to 2.5 times bigger than the existing. That won't work with her indoors so it's a NO NO. Now I'll probably struggle to find a plumber!
Both the RB and HYN are steady 97.58 and 97.059 respectively. I'm not slavishly devoted to AB but believe in him. Blowing our trumpet too early would have been self-defeating and not worth it during rebuilding. We're almost there.
I enjoy your simplified calculations. They're pretty accurate too. They don't need to be exact and the world isn't perfect. I think AB will exit at some stage. He is an ambitious man and like us all is running out of runway. I'm sure there are other things he wants to do. I think we'll be transformed in a few years. BTW, I think Taverham (Fri 15.07) was spot on. We may be perceived perfidious as a nation but we're also pragmatic. As things get tougher the ERG trumps ESG.

Be Lucky

Heavy today. I don't follow Sweden but another holder tells me it's 22.37 mio today whilst LSE has 11.504 mio
Not my area but doesn't IG (or whatever their latest name is) have a platform too? Anyway the two together is 34 mio ish.

Then we have HBR getting a 5 year bond away at 5.5 percent. They have a better credit rating than us but it augurs well for us.

we've got two upgrades in one day and even Squif isn't on the attack.

Today was a reset. The climb hasn't really started yet. I'm looking forward to Christmas.

Easy for you to say Juan. You're not the one being rejected.

*I've started to hang out at the gym preparing for the 60p party. They've told me I really should get some bigger shorts.

see E - he's toying with us. Maybe he's a BOT? An easy duel with a pensioner couldn't even smoke him out. The email was to arrange a meeting.

*I don't play golf unfortunately but the gear looks cool. Not sure the jacket would go with my ensemble anyway.

He doesn't ring, he doesn't call (sigh)

BTW - it's the environmental statement that failed. A precursor to the FDP. I know a few Xcite investors are hanging around here and they were still doing their environmental statement when they went bust (several years). It is always a work in progress. Steve Brown of Orcadian recently said that the majors try to dictate to the authorities and avoid the cost of complying. When he was at BP they sought ways of evading directives rather than complying. Like everybody else, Shell says one thing to the media and then tries to get away with things on the cheap. The world is changing.

Annoyed that Shell CEO wouldn't join the runway sitdown at Heathrow? Wrong wing nuts on the plughole? Rare Mermaid Newts discovered - no allowance for vagrant humming-birds to shelter on rig if they decide to migrate?

This is old news. The regulator and Shell won't tell us but you think someone here might know. Even with your low standards this is a pathetic deramp.

There is something called the Countdown Summit in Edingburgh https://countdown.ted.com/summit-program. It is a precursor to COP26 and is so bipartisan that it makes confirmation bias look like free-thinking. I did spot Ben van Beurden CEO, Royal Dutch Shell amongst delegates but he is a lone voice and needs the remaining Institutions in fossil fuels to stay onside to protect his comany's share price.

Perhaps delegate Sister True Dedication the Zen Buddhist nun will say something nice about us?

You'll get a fair trial followed by a first class hanging.
Judge Roy Bean

Thing is it's nothing really to do with EnQuest. Since the update oil has risen almost $10. Hardly unbounded enthusiasm.

KO- no you can't. People like E121 and hitman know because I've met them. I don't do willy waving anyway.

I had to google it. Look a bit too slimfit for me so will rely on the flares and cuban heels for the party. I had a health scare recently. I read that "If you can’t fit into the jeans you wore at 21 you risk type 2 diabetes". I might need a diet and a bit of warning for the 60p party. Mind you if I get into them I quite like the look of Galvin Green.

*p.s. my feet haven't got bigger.

BTFATH - well done. I wish I had your discipline. I tend to buy dips too but my weakness is not selling the spikes. Looks like you're betting in 400 lots. I was showing negative on my position yesterday close with City Index but it has turned by £3k at present. My stock portfolio however is many times higher than that this morning in value. We each have our own systems but one shouldn't ignore the potential of owning some stock. Anything that adds to liquidity is welcome.

You're invariably polite too which is something I struggle with as well. Be Lucky.

Modesty is one of my many, many great attributes.

We had activists at an EnQuest AGM. Two very polite middle class, middle aged ladies turned up c. 2016. One stood up and pushed her case.
She was treated with charm and concern by AB. The guy has skills many of you are unaware of.

Hi E - I posted without reading your 7.23. We're in some kind of agreement it seems. Always good to read your views.

Hopefully the last post on this. I have missed the glaryingly obvious with the size of options. Can you imagine what's on the books of the likes of Trafigura, Vitol, Shell, Goldmans and JP Morgan? They won't go through retail platforms (although they won't ignore them if they are out of line at the front end or size is on offer) and will run their internal books and positions. In fact a lot of stuff will net out. If you are Vitol you'll have producers on one side and refiners and airlines on the other. Shell could be on both sides as well. Normally a seller of oil but will buy from other producers if there is a turn in it or imbalance in a grade. They may have got an order of such size that they cannot supply all of it on the date. There is a plethora of reasons to hedge.
It is a fact that the further out you go the wider and more expensive hedging becomes. The fear of many oil companies is getting it wrong. The market is unforgiving and short termist. If you sold far into the future and when you got closer the market was much higher could possibly cost you your job. On the other hand a tentaive position will assuage the most rabid hedging pressure from creditors or minority shareholders. I think 2023 becomes more attractive when you reach Dec 2022 and Jun 2023 becomes a 6 month trade. If you get it wrong then you'll have a lot of company and can hide within the herd. The argument here is that the 6 month view is safer than the 12 month plus view. I'm not so sure that is the case but we're all put off by more expensive options and why court trouble?

Another thought is that we are used to pretty good regulation. The oversight by the likes of OGA and FCA (e.g. UK Prospectus Regulation Rules) is not recognised by most shareholders but should reassure us. With Climate Change pressures we will see the oil industry being controlled more and more by Russia, China and the Middle East. None of these are famed for governance and their playing fields are very uneven. We have seen Russia being helpful towards Europe (and no doubt other countries) with gas supplies. They will use fossil fuels as a political tool but I read this more as keeping the goose healthy. There are a lot more golden eggs in it even though the West is turning its back on them. Russia and OPEC will enjoy the benefits of having its knee on the throat of the West. They will maximise the returns and have control imo.

Be Lucky