Member Info for romaron

I disagree Juan. The "Kraken issue" is a by-product of the tanker watching and easy to follow. You could have done something similar by sitting outside Sainsbury's and counting lorries delivering toilet paper but instead we judge by empty shelves. We aren't diversified enough and Kraken will have a disproportionate effect so I am doubly grateful that a decent oil price mitigates. I think today's drop is down to one trade.
It was for 3,130,650 @ 22.20 Off-Book. One thing I am pretty confident about is that the time next to it is the recorded time (13.30.46) and not the time the deal was struck. It could have been done after close yesterday or first thing this morning. A MM found a buyer/s and whilst retail floundered around a favoured few would have had a clue. The market is so thin that a trade that is not even 3/16ths of 1 percent can have this effect is not that surprising. Oil stocks are pretty friendless at the moment and we need a cavalry charge the other way but I don't see it happening yet (or ever). I am still a strong holder but we have to adjust to the realities around us. EnQuest suits my portfolio and targets but maybe not others. As for informing the market that is unnecessary unless it changes guidance to a great degree. The seller of the 3mio could have taken notice of the rumours around Kraken offloads but there could be easily a dozen other reasons. We are getting there - slowly.

*The UT was quite large too 695,623

"How about a fossil fuel rescue trust? It would come with an acceptance that — COP or no COP — we will be using fossil fuels for many decades and with that in mind would buy out the assets that everyone else is busy backing off — hopefully on the cheap.

It would be for retail investors only, since most institutions are too crazed by conventional tickbox ESG metrics to consider this kind of thing, and would produce a couple of benefits. It would keep oil and gas assets on the public markets — if there is one area that needs radical transparency, it is this. It would help out all those companies that are being bullied by ESG committees to divest dirty stuff.

And, of course, while the assets would be in decline (no new exploration or drilling) it would provide us with a medium-term high yield — one that we can squirrel away to pay the exorbitant wages the few remaining young people in the world will demand to look after us when we are in our 80s"

From a piece in the FT by Merryn Somerset Webb today

"Everybody prefers a rising share price" Not if they're short they don't.
However, most here are long and down days aren't pleasant. Plenty going on in the bigger picture and at the beginning of the month it was COP26 fears. They seem to have been allayed and the response to new field development in the UK NS look likely to be allowed to go ahead. That's good news for BBK imo. We can only guess what is happening at the geopolitical level and the US has immense power as it by and large controls the world's purse strings. They'll move markets but they can't stop tsunamis either. Fossil fuels look protected at the moment so we're left with concern about Kraken production. Uncertainty is damaging to confidence and I'd say it does look like this is what is happening today. The company is being sphinxlike at the moment which is fine if the problem is swiftly sorted. I'm sure they are being inundated with emails at present and are on the case.

Build it and they will come. Nobody said it would be easy.

Hi Therapist - not really research. I was cribbing off the Orcadian message board. Some excellent posting there and I wish you all good luck. If they get the finance it will rocket. I don't hold any stock but Steve Brown is very persuasive and of course doesn't have the restrictions that a company in production has when making forecasts or being pulled back by RNS if something goes wrong. Still very informative though and I like his broadstrokes such as "you need a $1 billion to get lift off and if you can get a partner with an FPSO that's half the cost right there". It is easier to pitch than to do so he is enjoying himself but a bit too risky for me. I hope it does take off because it'll be affirmation for us and the whole North Sea.

Not sure my link came out. Try this https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2021-11-03/69051

or this https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions?SearchTerm=&DateFrom=11%2F05%2F2021&DateTo=31%2F07%2F2022&AnsweredFrom=&AnsweredTo=&House=Commons&MemberId=3930&Answered=Unanswered&AnsweringBodyId=201&Expanded=True

Tick answered and a lot more come up.

It gives me comfort that sef interest and common sense can still be found in Government even when the leadership isn't up to it.

We've discussed this away from the board - (crybabies are a distraction) and there is always the possibility of ongoing discussions/deals which could give AB insider advantage. If hedge funds are seeing once in a lifetime opportunities can you imagine what AB is seeing?

Goddard, Avalon, Victory, Tolmount, Verbier, Solar, Leverett, Capercaillie, Tornado, Marigold & Sunflowe, Perth, Glendronach, Cheviot, Pilot, Isabella, Bressay, Cambo, Glengorm, Bentley,Clair, Rosbank, Belinda, Alwyn, Eagle, Biscathorpe, Puddle Town, West Newton, Dunsfold, Balcombe.

Use the abgove to fill in questions asked by Caroline Lucas on the 3 November 2021 example:
"To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, what assessment his Department has made of the compatibility of the Bressay fossil fuel development proposed by Enquest with the UK’s target to achieve net zero by 2050."

Conveniently they were all answered yesterday by Greg Hands with one reply:

"All previously licensed fields are accounted for in terms of projected production and estimated emissions and the Government is confident that they can be developed, even as the UK seeks to achieve its commitment to net zero by 2050."

Abigail, Pegasus West, & Silvern were asked about on the 9th and given exactly the same reply on 9 November by Greg Hands.

ttps://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions?Answered=Answered&AnsweredFrom=&AnsweredTo=&AnsweringBodyId=201&DateFrom=10%2F11%2F2020&DateTo=10%2F11%2F2021&Expanded=True&House=Commons&MemberId=3930&SearchTerm=&Page=1

Build it and they will come (for the foreseeable future)

*Thanks to the ORCA message board for directions.

There you go again Juan. Trying to panic us into believing there is a problem with ovens and an oven bulb supply problem. They don't last forever and they are quite a frequent occurence here at Roma Towers (3 times in 27 years). Get a grip man!

As for Zippy doesn't he realise that this board is no place for calm experienced assessment. Where's the fun in that!

*Evidently there is a shortage of Calpol.

Let the algos sell the "US crude inventories built by 1MM Bbls" headline...meanwhile the US crude oil inventory deficit to the '16-'19 average actually GREW this week by 3MM Bbls and the "Big 3" deficit GREW by 7MM Bbls.

Eric Nuttall today.

The SPR was originally intended as insurance for natural disasters and conflict causing shortages; not as a price mechanism. A release of oil from the SPR wil have the temporary impact of lowering oil for immediate delivery. It might work if the winter is short and not too cold, Covid returning and a new ban on travel but others will say that this is a feeble attempt by an inept US administration used to getting its own way and being ignored. Hard to get excited about it but if you're glued to the spot oil price or playing the market I suppose it seems important. It is encouraging for shale though and another defeat for Biden I'd say.

Found this

37. Calls upon Parties to accelerate the phasing-out of coal and subsidies for fossil fuels;

Well that's handy because we don't give fossil fuel subsidies in the UK. Didn't find anything else immediately relevant. Let's see what COP27 produces. I hear Sharm El Sheik is quite a destination and remember the sunblock. Not needed in Glasgow. How does one become a climate activist and get to these venues ? I'm looking for sponsors.

https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Overarching_decision_1-CMA-3.pdf

I think in our era many of us were "accidents". Dunno about unloved. We were just part of a production line and parents were too busy with surviving. We never had a colour TV in our shoebox.

JP Morgan, one of the world's biggest investment banks, is advising its clients to start buying more British stocks, which it thinks are at "near record cheap levels".

Under Need to Know - The Times again.

Looking better value than ever:

MSCI UK Index has a forward price to earnings ratio of 12 - below the multiples of 16 for stocks listed in the Eurozone markets and almost 22 in the US.
Brexit has been a deterrent.
JP Morgan have reversed their bearish view since 2016 and last year went 'neutral'. They have now gone a step further and raise UK [stocks] to an 'overweight' in a European and in a global context. Since the referendum (June 23, 2016) we are up 15% whilst dax is up 57% and S&P 500 has more than doubled.
Currency analysts sat that a forecast modest weakening of sterling will be a 'tailwind' for stocks as overseas interest gathers.

Source: Today's Times

Up, up and away!

Hi spin, my cunning plan is to watch the cash mountain build and if the price won't budge then eventually the Canadian and US investors will leave their comfort zone and move across the pond. We've already seen 2 Mediterranean hedge funds BUY in and who knows what remains beneath the 3% iceberg. It isn't EnQuest per se that is performing badly. Indeed on a 1 year performance we have beaten BP, Shell, Cairn, Harbour, Tullow and Energean by share price uplift so I suggest it's the sector that is unloved and unwanted. The difference between us and the US/Canada valuation is systemic. Listen to Jim Buckee from 08.00 and especially at 08.45 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdjTi-uhoqI&t=618s

I think with EnQuest it is steady as she goes. The only measure of true value is the long term discounted value of a future stream of dividends and that looks unavoidable from where I'm sitting.

Be Lucky

Happiness is watching a stock rise in a single day by more than what you paid for it less than a year ago.
4:43 PM · Nov 8, 2021·Twitter Web App

The quote is by Eric Nuttall on twitter and the stock is Athabasca Oil Corp

Being of a competitive nature I believe we will do something similar if this market lasts through 2022 into 2023. EN has chosen a low point which coincidentally was when he first invested. Well I bought some EnQuest at a price around 8p back in March 2020 (not my average that’s around 22p). Doing the jump in one day is a big ASK but what if we’re c.60p and an announcement comes out that we have had an approach or there is a big windfall payout? An 8p jump then is more than possible. We assume a gradual climb as FCF keeps mounting but we know that this stock has jerky moments.

I forecast an 8p jump in one day.

Regarding the 60p and proposed party. The COP26 organisers are going to have to approve a communiqué with197 contributors and that will not be an easy task. So in anticipation of the 60p party I hope we won’t have a similar problem choosing a venue. Juan is on the steering committee and I suppose with London being a major City and Head Office it kinda picks itself. We can have the £1 party in Sweden.

Always good to plan ahead.

There isn't much you can do about that. A puncture on a F1 tyre. Do you sue Bridgestone? My point is that EnQuest like many similar sized companies will always have plates spinning and these things happen. It happens to the majors too which is why diversification is important. I don't get excited about hedges either. You can't hedge at $65 if the price never went above $45. However you can regret hedging at $65 if Brent reaches $85. Swings and roundabouts but we all like to forget natural declines. They are a fact of life and higher in older fields. I think some new drilling will have an impact but what do I know?

Hi Therapist - The figures you provide are not as gloomy as those presented by Learner Trader imo and I have to own up to this being the first time I've studied them in depth. I have a condition that makes me averse to graphs and stats (laziness) which is why I find you and others so valuable on this board. The Magnus problem was apparently a "third party outage" and I've no idea what that meant. Was it a contractor messing up? If so they [EnQuest} have a vicarious liability towards us shareholders and it is a bit mealy-mouthed but what do you expect dealing in oil? Corporate speak is pretty universal. In comparison the amount of money thrown at F1 is amazing yet many cars don't complete the race and of course there's only one winner but many competing.
The dig at Pelle was cheap too. He looks at the bigger picture and quite aware that Magnus was down I'm sure. It happens but like me his eye is on the goal and overall production versus the oil price. I'm quite happy for LTrader to bathe in details but suggest it's you that keeps the figures in perspective and he is a useful junior to you because of his efforts to always try to fault the figures.
Regarding the future ALL NS oil companies are under-valued from a cash flow perspective and that is hard to live with but is a fact. It has been discussed to death here and we are now joined by hedge funds. Not nice people but more right than the man in the street, often called the retail investor.
I kinda agree with you on mrd but he does have some ability and I tolerate him in the same way that you get something from LTrader. A few believe is a reincarnation NeilHannon and that may be the case because he was particularly trollish when he started here. Maybe he was short then and long now? I look for something factual in his posts and he may work in the industry. A shame really because these people could add to our knowledge but instead bring up questions of motivation. (I'd still rather have him than KO, squif or Stanley, they add nothing).

Still can't find the Magnus Feb/Mar statement regarding 17-18 Kbopd or even Kboepd. Can somebody give me a specific quote?

*average for Magnus 3m June-Aug inc. 15,130 Kboepd - source Therapist Sunday 18.06. The future remains unknown so I don't blame AB for every twist and turn in as volatile commodity industry.

Hi Therapist, thanks for that. I don't wish to be dragged into a minutiae argument with Ltrader or yourself either but only to say that most of us here talk about boepd so are the numbers you give bopd or boepd (including gas)?
The flying visits of LTrader bring little value to the discussion other than an attempt by him to read off reams of historical data that only interest him while casting aspersions about the CEO of EnQuest. The equivalent of a train spotter reciting the numbers he's written down. We know his oft repeated views on EnQuest management and it does make you wonder why he pretends to be a shareholder. Either that or he invests in companies he has no faith in. Maybe it's time he threw away the L plates and took the plunge away from fantasy trading.
Still looking for the AB statement of Feb/Mar. Best you ask him because he pretends not to read anything I post. That is unless anybody else can help?

Hi Therapist, re unwarranted flak. Can you confirm the present production of Magnus is under 13k bopd?

I'm also interested where I can find the statement by AB in Feb/March, anybody?

"Because AB stated in Feb/March Magnus could be producing 17-18Kbopd in due course... 6 months later Magnus was/is still stuck under 13Kbopd."