Member Info for romaron

In July this year, Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Bulb’s offices, where he said that the company was “leading the way in the renewables revolution.”

Now entering administration (posh word for bust): “But it’s not just Bulb’s size as the seventh largest supplier that makes this so significant. Unlike some of the smaller suppliers who recently ceased to trade, Bulb operated with a strong business model combined with a competitive offering for consumers.”

Justina Miltienyte, energy policy expert at Uswitch.com, said: “This signals the tipping point of the UK energy crisis."

So easy kowtowing to the populist narrative. I am a Bulb customer and not that worried TBH but I would guess that renewables didn't save the day! Not so easy is it this energy game? The government should stick to what its good at, like railways.

It does raise an interesting point Therapist. When compiling an RNS the company has to make decisions on whether to dumb it down enough so that an average retail investor will understand it at first read or to prepare a professional update to for market participants who zero into the important points. Probably not that important really as when the market scents blood and panics the herd it becomes unimportant. But now we know and it ain't so scary. Uncertainty always unsettles.

*As if Covid isn't enoughh to worry about I've been diagnosed with Feefiphobia. A chronic fear of giants.

That's me. I don't think it was a bad performance by EnQuest in the conditions. You moan about the wording of the RNS but how many people can read an L3Trader post (or want to)? At the other end you had chiltings simplistic ramblings but few complained.
RNS's are full of jargon and worries about breaking reporting rules. They are effectively legal documents and try reading a CPR report. The cavats are boggling. The analysts and larger shareholders will get more than an email response from IR and are more often in contact anyway. I know a retail analyst well and he recently said to me that he speaks to Mike Ashley at Frasers Group most days.
I get a good response from IR but restrict my questions as most (believe it or not) get answered on this message board. AB gave me his card at an AGM but I wouldn't dream of using it unless I had something to tell them or it was unrelated to EnQuest. They always act professionally but are tight-lipped about trading etc.. I mean we could be taping the call or putting the answer straight on a message board and inadvertently (or intentionally?) influencing some of the more emotional or less sophisticated holders. Some have even been known to (knowingly or unknowingly) use their own words and alter the thrust of the message. You'll get through to IR whether you're a shareholder or not. They aren't going to go through the ritual of contacting the registrars to see if you're listed there and I've seen the list. It is long because you always get someone turn up at an AGM without confirmation of their shareholding and they look for you on the list.
Shock horror that our production was down from 2020! They've only explained and been telling us about it for a year.
I also think we're not unique in problems happening during the life of fields. In fact I'd take it further and say we're probably pretty close to the mean. It follows then that the world is making a big mistake when it imagines that the biggest producers can turn on a sixpence (or a tap - you choose) as quickly as they're being told by less than independent or biased sources.

In the scheme of things we're through the worst imo. Would there have been complaints if we'd smashed topside guidance? Probably not but there should be. If you stop for a second that too would probably mean misleading the shareholders as the laws of physics, oil fields and material life should make that impossible. An interesting thought but more in the Londoner7 field of expertise. You should never be able to exceed guidance imo. Revenue yes, if the poo rises.

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning" spoken by a CEO who was rudely criticised for much of his career and is I believe where we are now. In a volatile and cyclical industry facing once in a lifetime headwinds it is quite an achievement to be profitable and entering a period of higher FCF.

I just assumed it was GE but without size of "normal" cargoes is pretty uninformative to me. I suppose if we're 26.69% and the asset produces c. 10k boepd net then it produces c.37k gross. Slightly more than Kraken.
They don't operatre the field so the information is second hand even for them. I think the tanker watchers will have to up their game. Even if it's piped off it eventually has to be transferred to a tanker once the holding tanks are full.
It gets even more complicated I suppose in how you decide whether to split it or trade with one customer.

I sometimes struggle with RNS's and communiques and this one is no different; from a few days ago.

Quote: "We're talking about the symbolism of the largest consumers of the world sending a message to OPEC that 'you've got to change your behavior,'" a source told Reuters a few days ago.

Being an avid follower of COP26 I was in considerable confusion but luckily I found a translation that cleared it up.

"Governments have decided they don't want a long term relationship with the fossil fuel industry but they still want them as f*ckbuddies."

So modern.

I didn't say you can't come on the board and I know enough about trolls to realise they'repersistent. I am a supporter of a company I hold shares in. If that dramatically changes I will reassess. I am NOT "furious" (strange choice of word) about the company and the way it's run. As for a clique I wish there was one and they'd agree with me more. The ones I engage with are all rather annoyingly of independent thought. Enjoy your day. I will.

BIATWC

Oh dear - what brings you here Oil? The guidance for 2021 was 46-52k and we missed it by a whisker. There has as they say "been a lot of water under the bridge" since 2020 and the world is still struggling with the effect of COVID and it hit oil producers particularly hard. The better oil price compensated for the reduced production and I think we've done relatively well compared to our peers. I use Harbour as an imperfect guide and they are hardly smashing it and you could say the same for Tullow. We can all cherry pick certain periods to support our arguments but it seems you don't have a very high opinion of anybody but yourself. Are you even a holder here? What is your experience?
This company has been transitioning in a very difficult space not helped by the ESG pressures. If I want to hear constant denigration of EnQuest and their management and whingeing I'd rather listen to squif. He at least seems a genuine holder and not a retired makebate which is what you sound like.
The worst time in the sense that the OU bumped into a period when oil and producers were being sold. There are plenty of "worst" times and the WTI negative fix in April 2020 was far worse but unfortunately EnQuest don't control world news, government manoeuvres, or market fluctuations.
I use this message board to increase my knowledge from people more capable than me. Just being provocative is not an endearing quality added to a "know all" approach. A little humility helps.

Build it and they will come.

This is dynamite. Goldman's said that just like with the SPR headlines on Wednesday, "we estimate that this move lower has far overshot the actual fundamental risks due to low trading volumes." I have a lot of respect for Goldman's.

I doubt anybody disagrees with the low volume. Unfortunately our OU followed it. The timing couldn't have been worse BUT it was probably too late to digest or anticipate the impact. RNS's are a bit like being questioned under oath and I remember Phil Kirk of Harbour having a lawyer guy sitting next to him at a presentation and the concern of figures not completely in the public domain made it painful to watch. Avoiding questions at AGM's are not necessarily Directors being slippery but legally bound not to be able to answer. One of their tricks is to say that "an analyst agrees with your workings/suggestions". That is a big hint that they don't disagree. I digress.

The Goldman story just gets better. They say the move was the equivalent of 4 mb/d combined hit to demand over the next 3 months. That would equal 100 mb SPR release plus a 1.75 mb/d hit to demand due to the current COVID resurgence.

He then says how crazy this looks as it is double the release of SPR that we know about and a globally negative impact of COVID c. 1.5 times that of last winter when vaccination was practically non-existent and hospitals were full of COVID patients.

Crazy herd panic and I agree. The author, Goldman's Damien Courvalin, then goes on to reiterate his $85/4Q21 average forecast.

*sorry onedb you weren't wrong. Just a day or so out on timing with an unexpected adverse news combination. And thanks to KO for bringing it to our attention.

Of course myself and Courvalin could be wrong but we know Governments will be happy with the headlines for a day or so until something else arrives to take the attention away from high energy bills. Fire fighting ain't governing and they cannot hold back the sheer demand for energy for any length of time.

Build it and they will come. BTW - I don't think our performance was too shabby on the OU all things considered.

Juan - I'm afraid you'll have to wait. Around beginninig of 2022. You'll be able to review your numbers if any significant changes.

O/T Juan - have you been playing with the Tarot cards again? I was gonna post with the subject title 2022 for next years competition (I plan ahead too). Guess the boepd for 2022? I have got the ideal prize but you lot would compete for a fossilised dog's turd in such a prestigious competition.

Hi aachi - I'm not gonna do it but there are some forecasts somewhere in the prospectus that may help. If economic reserves have a life of say 9 years it is pretty linear [that isn't accidental I saw a comparison of our reserves and they used 9 years]. As Therapist says the game is to drill to counteract the natural declines. At one AGM I got told that the declines of around 12-18% were normal for older fields. Money was tight and they'd spent little on capex so you need to factor that in. The "scavenger" model of EnQuest is to squeeze out the last drops. Pointless going too deep but others may have the info possibly in the CPR. There is stuff there that is better than our guesswork but it needs drilling (sorry) down. As a rule of thumb I'd use 11% but I'm an amateur.

you're young onedb - you'll have other opportunities but you'll remember this one vividly. I even dare say that whatever the direction over the next few days this is close to the bottom and it will be tattooed on your memory the price 18.30. You'll forget if it goes lower and it'll be seared in your mind that 18.30 was the bottom even if it wasn't.

Something for you to ponder. When big changes happen there is often a kinda phoney war. Covid has worked for a while but not only is the virus weakening, people are less interested or frightened and getting on with their lives [more contagious maybe but less lethal]. It may be callous but they'll say the vulnerable should get vaccinated and they're old anyway. Not nice but when has nature ever cared about the old and predators look for the weak and old. Supply chains are a mess in almost every human activity with labour shortages increasing it seems. And most importantly I think the world is short of energy. Instant portable energy plus the cheapest space heating that's what the O&G provide and they will struggle to meet demand. What happened to EnQuest is far from unique and there will be other failings due to weather, events and breakdowns throughout the industry. Putting them right will not be as simple as in the past.
The signs are there (Tesco Barnet Diesel £1.51) but more so the horse-trading between Putin, Biden and OPEC. Biden is worried and kidding the voters it is easily solveable. No it isn't.
Smart money doesn't expect to get the timing spot on. That's left for keyboard warriors but (and I could be wildly wrong) there has been a buying up of oil stocks whilst sending out a narrative of plentiful supply and reserves. Could be true if we have a balmy winter in the Northern hemisphere. That's a huge risk and any government who gets it wrong will suffer.
I always feel a little nervous when the market acts illogically. The world is in a mess but oil doesn't matter any longer? Look we're awash with the stuff. Nope, I'll stick with my view. I think we're gonna have an extremely tricky and volatile few months and it won't be on the down side. We have a pandemic and energy transition coming together and people are casually expecting the "market" to solve a once in a lifetime event. It can't imo.

Be Lucky

Here's some perspective monkey.
Art Berman twitter yesterday.
"Brent will fall from an average of $84/b in October 2021 to $66/b in December 2022 & WTI will fall from an average of $81/b in October 2021 to $62/b in December 2022."

One of the replies he got was "For perspective, here was the EIA call in Jan 2021:
“The EIA expects Brent crude oil spot prices to average $53 per barrel in both 2021 and 2022 compared with an average of $42 a barrel in 2020. In the December STEO, the EIA expected Brent prices to average $49 a barrel in 2021.”

.....and amongst all that EnQuest have to give guidance and make plans without the benefit of message board hindsight.

*I went to the Drum and Monkey in Harrogate - London prices but fantastic fish.

Please tell me this is true and nobody disagrees. It is a quote from a long term successful fund manager.

"A measure of true value is the long term discounted value of a future stream of dividends."

another went further and said "it is the only measure". Some of the flyers succeed, some are flash in the pans but eventually a return on capital is required. The tide always goes out and dividends are superior swimwear.

Hi Oil - I agree with you on HBR but without bringing partisanship into it both HBR and ENQ are priced as though they're going to the wall as the move to renewables is a cast iron bet to happen in the very near future. Governments are going to ban fossil fuels by edict and world peace will finally be achieved.
I've given up expecting sunny highlands tomorrow with the constant narrative against oil and am waiting for the realisation that my first paragraph is nonsense regarding the near future (say 10 years). I'm treating this investment as a kind of bond and expect the returns to be worthwhile and reliable for the next decade at least. That's my view. What's yours?

*ignore Kraken Oil - he's a little bit yappy but he doesn't bite.

They are pretty ubiquitous in oil & gas finance and with the recent RBL the Norwegian bank DNB will have copious information about our finances. On the Swedish board I read that the Norwegians are to invest NOK 154.4 bn ($17.5 bn) next year whilst in 2021 it was NOK 182.3bn ($20.69 bn) whilst we in the UK plan to spend $ 28.35 bn between 2021-25 of which only $8.91 had been committed so far. Quite a difference.
There is a wide gap here and I realise taxes are far higher in Norway but the Norwegian government has said ""The oil and gas sector will be developed, not dismantled,"
I'm obviously thinking Bressay and our tax breaks. I'm also encouraged by the Waldorf group who hold the old CNE share of Kraken and Pal Hveem their major Norwegian shareholder. In short we are on their radar and possibly surrounded. I am treating this with a little urgency as I'm concerned that squif and his little band of sans-culottes might include our Norwegian board member, Liv Monica Stubholt, and throw her in the tumbril along with AB.

There will be many interesting developments I'm sure in 2022 of which we will be almost totally unaware. Let's not be impulsive.

Why don't you go with him KO? You have a lot in common and he is a bit of a hero and guru to you.

Before you go chilting leave some of your billboards for squif. He's got a crusade and a march on EnQuest Towers to arrange.

How would you know if it was badly written KO. You can barely string a sentence together and keep telling us you've been waisting (sic) your time here. As for timing, don't they usually release an OU in November?

Pretty much in agreement with you Pelle. I was having a drink with a couple of people last night and one in construction is struggling with labour and materials but what really surprised me was the other guy in publishing was encountering similar problems. We suspect a few on this message board are pretty duplicitous but you need a multiplier of that if you include politicians. Biden trying to push the blame onto both oil producers and OPEC is a typical poltitician's move. It looks good to the public but is fairly impotent window dressing. His actions haven't helped and neither has the rush to renewables. It is beginning to sink in and we have seen it impacting on EnQuest. We aren't alone and other oil companies will struggle.
Don't worry though we have renewables round the corner - or do we?

It's bad out there and we are a safe haven. We have prepared well for what we are about to face.

From the Swedish board post by Hawkeq: " I remain positive and believe that the production problems only become a parenthesis when you zoom out a bit."

....I followed his advice and you know what? He's right!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/ideas/videos/how-big-is-our-universe/p0b2dl5c