Member Info for romaron

59394 they're mine. Had to go down the back of the sofa for funds.

BIATWC

Rugby Union rules ar different to Football. A red card is the same in both but a yellow card is a sending off (sin bin) for 10 minutes which is considerable in a match of 80 minutes. EnQuest had 3 yellow cards in 2021 and it ain't over yet. It is possible that we won't have any yellow cards in 2022 but unlikely. You will be pleased to know that teams with yellow cards awarded often go on to WIN. It isn't that they are necessarily dirty but playing very tightly to the rules. A slight misstep and you can be in trouble. That is the nature of the oil business. You've got to be in it to win it.

I think ice hockey have something similar.

BIATWC

I'm actually doing the same as you hitman. I don't think the production is too shabby bearing in mind we were off the pitch with yellow cards (rugby ones). I'm trying to understand the RBL and it is fiendishly complicated. I agree it is all about debt. we need to do what? I'm struggling with the wording (see p. 292/293 of prospectus: step 1 and step2 - I haven't a clue).
At end of October RBL was drawn to $485 mio. We'll be in trouble if we don't get to Zero by October 2023. so we've got 22 months to repay it (at worst) or more likely tie it in with a rolled over HYN and possibly RB.

*monkey - I know what you mean. The cards are on the table now and hitman's explanation is less emotional than some others.

1. Magnus compressor system outages.
2. Kraken short unplanned shutdown.
3. PM8/Seligi supplier problems.

All solveable and as much as some posters would like to wail it is outside the control of management and has to be put right when things occur. There'll be more and they affect every oil field in the world. That's why they all have regular maintenance which hopefully minimises these facts of life.
Being a smaller company we don't have the diversification that a major has that can hide these events but they say bad news comes in three's and this is it. Put it out there and get back on with the business. I think we've buried all the bad news.

*already struggling with the numbers. $950mio revenue for 304 days is 3.125 mio per day and at ave. price of $66 =47348 boepd
further down it says ave. net production 44,3036 boepd. Is it to do with deliveries/offload timings or is it hedgings. So close to YE I'll take their 45,000 for 2021.
The big question is 2022?

BIATWC

Not pleasant Juan but when it settles down the number guys can make their projections from a stronger base. Imagine the problems that larger oil companies have from time to time in comparison to ours. The rush into renewables will put more pressure on oil companies who face the production problems that are part of producing oil. Nothing has changed in the bigger picture. I wanted this update so we can get a good idea of what 2022 will bring. Seems a rather harsh reaction today but guidance was missed. We were hardly overpriced before so the fall is going to attract bargain hunters.

Interesting topic. I still expect this to be a star performer in my portfolio. I am probably the only shareholder in this conversation.

"never worry about criticism from somebody you wouldn’t take advice from" - Dick Whitty

Build it and they will come.

It was open mic night at Ye Olde Monken Holt tonight. Open till 11.30 p.m. and they don't sell food. Proper boozer.

Don't worry Pelle - I wasn't performing.

*I never question myself. Why should I start now?

Sometimes you turn up as they're packing away and they're selling boxes of fruit for a £1 or it could be a temporary glut of say, oranges. Go there the following week and the price may have trebled or they've run out. The spot price of oil isn't for next January or February. I'd also say that Biden seems to be panicking. Easy for him because if the worst happens he can always turn on the shale switch. Not so easy for r.o.w. or the US reputation.

*I don’t usually brag about going to expensive places but I’ve just left the petrol station.

Nov 4 2019 "If Biden wins04 Nov 2020 18:22
I expect oil to fall $5 and enq to be in the 8’s..."
and Feb 5 2021 "Reckon there will be Brent correction next week back to 55-56 region.
Expecting enquest to be in 9-10 region. Ammu 05/02/21"

Shall I save this one for you Ammu?

...and meanwhile Putin buzzes us and allies by jet and manoeuvres close to borders. He's doing his bit to reduce the SPR too.

Juan - not my area but we no longer seem to have gkb47 updates. He was a bit jingoistic but almost always first with this kinda stuff. I hope he's OK. I'm just filling the vacuum.

Hi Squif - Probably the worst response I've had to a post. To illustrate I did choose 2 companies that have had a tough time but CNE haven't done much better. You use a US company and one based in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. It has never been precise to find peer comparisons and I chose two that did worse than EnQuest. There are more that have done worse but there are few that have outperformed EnQuest in the UK. In fact I can't really think of one at present but I'm sure you can help me.
Here is a list of the peer analysis from the FT:
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=ENQ:LSE I think they're pretty indiscriminate and wouldn't use them personally. Spirit would be useful but aren't that popular either if judged by the attempts of Centrica to unload them.
I'm not happy with the share price but I would have been in a similar or worse position with other oil companies. I can accept that. You can't so it must be someone else's fault.
I think many on here (me included) have commented on the US and Canadian valuations whilst GKP looks pretty similar to us but you seem to think they're a success story.

Be Lucky

Squif - I don't follow that many NS oil companies as you obviously do so would like to compare against the ones you put on a pedestal so we can make a comparison. Who are they?

Actually mrd it looks even better if you go back to Nov 2019 and overlay it on the the Tullow or Premier Oil graph (still available on LSE). I think AB and his team deserve credit for this. Was it serious this pandemic you mention?

*whenever there was a big move on FX it felt like now. The spot oil market is drifting with efforts to artificially lower the price (SPR draws) because there seems to be genuine problems with boosting supply and we're already seeing Russia using it to its advantage and Putin raising his Nationalistic prestige by threatening borders in Europe. This could be a good question. Is it only Nations that have a SPR because if the answer is YES then who to trust? They [countries] never publicly admit the totals and it reeks of misinformation. The US would keep it strictly under wraps if the dial was getting close to red as would China. The true position is probably quite critical because if the winter pushes us into tilt we could be in for a rocky time. Governments panic and it wouldn't help the world economy but it would certainly focus on security and control of supply.

gurun - I'm pretty sure that there are restrictions tied up with our debt that prevent buybacks until the debt/s are at a certain level. You then have restrictions on Director buying if in a closed period or they are privvy to price sensitive material (insider trading).

What happened to earlier posts? Moderator or complaints? Seemed pretty innocuous to me up to about 9.30

Point to ponder. Listening to Bloomberg about the disparity between US stocks and Europe and the UK. The US stocks have better ratios and value. Maybe the predsenter said it's because they are better companies and better run. We know thegap is there and assume we'll close it. What if fundamentally it deserves to be there?

Hi Mansardman - maybe it was a little childish and immature but nthere's nothing on Netflix. Some wonderful posting today. I'd forgotten how much fun Ammu and his slapstick analysis is.

Hi Auson - further to the link you provided (Sat 14.43). I had an issue with Morningstar MS back in 2018. I was confused by MS reporting that Double A and Amjad Bseisu held the same amount of shares. They actually held 103,258,316 mio whilst Morningstar had 2 similar amounts totalling 207Mio. This was over a period of several years so I naturally stopped trusting Morningstar. Back in 2017 they had AA and AB holding 71,405,331 EACH. I assumed it was sloppy records and my email to EnQuest IR confirmed. It also told me that there is little importance placed on these figures as the company trusts its own figures far more and any company worth its salt would do the same. Information that costs you nothing often has the same value. There seemed to be little regulatory control in this area and years later ARCM confirmed this.
Today we have Baillie Gifford with a much lower percentage but I have never seen a reduction RNS. Maybe I missed it? They hold 2.68% with MS and 4.99 with FT (that’s a 42mio share difference). Cobas has 3.03% with FT (which I believe is correct) whilst MS have 2.29% in 2 amounts. That is why I don’t trust the figures and anybody who does is being ingenuous when so easily proved otherwise and I’m no Sherlock Holmes (I leave that to Therapist who is, although he plays it down).

It might actually help understand some of the share shuffling recently. Maybe Baillie Gifford unloaded some to the hedge funds. Perhaps (and I’m guessing) that is the record of the deal – Helikon and Cobas issuing RNS’s. Only one side has to own up?

There are thousands of moving parts that make up a stock quote and this is only one of them. If you want another layer of confusion the major shareholders on the EnQuest.com site under Investors has BG with c. 96mio but that is almost a year old. The company probably does care but it doesn't appear to be obligatory or policed too well. They worry more about shorters but I'm just as interested in the longers.

Hi Auson - it isn't as easy as you'd think to keep track of major shareholders but they do tend to be more loyal and even EnQuest usually caveat that it is "So far as the Company is aware,". [remember PMO and ARCM]
I keep intermittent snap shops of holdings and did a mini audit this morning (until I got fed up and had too many tabs open).
I cross checked the Aberforth and Baillie Gifford where you go down different rabbit holes but it is worth remembering that the percentages of holding in their books is Aberforth 1.7% and BG managed 0.4% for example. I don't quite get to the figures but I'm more concerned that they're still there. I never used to take much notice of Morningstar but that looks a lot better than how they used to record them. There is also the fact that you're not always clear of the actual recorded date and whether it has changed or even the stock price used etc... These are useful figures but bear in mind they're unaudited and even EnQuest don't fully trust them. I wish somone like Therapist would get interested in these figures because he could get some order into them but it's probably just as useful to use them as a wet finger in the air because it is probably an impossible task to get complete accuracy, ever. I am pleased that Schroders are back as they are a wise company imo. Aberforth & BG have been with us for years and aren't dopes either. I liked this Scroder snapshot:
https://markets.ft.com/data/funds/tearsheet/summary?s=lu0256331728:usd
Over 1 year we are doing best out of their top 5 holdings. It isn't a massive fund and I haven't checked if they hold fossil fuel producing companies elsewhere?
I also use this from time to time and you can see the divergence from Morningstar.
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=ENQ:LSE
Who is most accurate? If you were using CobaAM then you'd say the FT. What it does illustrate to me is that we have a paucity of Institutional holders historically imo but that may be a sign of the times and obviously the influence of the large AB & Family + EBT.
Well worth posting Auson as maybe we'll keep this debate going. The snapshot of Morningstar shows that the increase has been Cobas and a Schroder top up. Helikon aren't there and that may be because it is a swap but who knows? They may have exited but I doubt it.

Be Lucky

The Irish v All Blacks game today was fantastic whilst the England v Australia paled in comparison but there was one thing I took away from it. The Australian Sponsors are called Santos and I wondered what they did. They are an Oil & Gas company.

I agree Pelle but hypocrisy is universal. We have to play the hand we're given. The activists don't mind bullying our more supine administrations but I'd like to see them try it on in Russia, China or Saudi Arabia. Or even the US.
I cannot see the UK abandoning oil any time soon but we're gonna be having different partners to what we have been used to. Your/our argument about us producing a string of dividends ends all corporate shilly-shallying and they'll be left with an easy decision. Sh*t or get off the pot.

Hi Tigar - a timely segue into what I think will be the way to look at fossil fuels (especially oil) in the next few years. Those leaving the sector will not return imo. You can't satisfy ESG demands by moving from fossil to renewables and then go back again. This has been the selling pressure on the sector and there isn't one UK oiler that has bucked the trend.
I was thinking on Friday how ridiculous it has become. A tiny amount of stock (3/16ths of one percent) can move the MC 4 percent. I agree with Merryn's idea except there would still be some new drilling or we'll have to import the stuff. Something that Deirdre Mitchie of Oil and Gas UK was very clear about. As long as the UK is in deficit for oil it is hard to defend importing it at the expense of losing control, jobs and being prey to weaker ESG practises.
It is getting to the situation that the MC will be just our cash in the bank (and our peers) and everything else has a charity shop value. That is clearly not going to happen but you do wonder when you see some of the movements. I suspect that the Government will do its own form of greenwashing and while we run a deficit on fossil fuels we'll be allowed to continue with a tapering off until (if and when) renewables pick up the slack.
The move away from the sector by public entities to private looks unstoppable and we have to accept this new order. I'm not fussed who I share a profit with and lets not forget the massive tax credits we have when the cascade of cash begins.
I think we'll be looked at as rather boring with projects that fulfill exacting standards and regulations but will reward the oil companies that stayed the distance. In some respects following the pattern of nuclear and the attraction of returns for 10-20 years say which Institutions like for guaranteed returns. It might not be our sniffy Institutions any longer but I'm not xenophobic. We are witnessing, as Larry Fink of Blackrock said "the biggest capital arbitrage in my lifetime". I want to be on the right side of it and I believe EnQuest have laid the framework to be part of it.

Build it and they will come.