Member Info for romaron

Actually Modestus on Bloomberg TV in the evening the side bar did have "algos/options turn tumble into a crash" and like trolls, algos are always with us but I did wonder about the options part.
Bloomberg, like Reuters is one of the most reputable news agencies in the world and in their world sources are seldom accepted without corroboration. They also have a duty to remain non-partisan.

Good spot.

Best MBS gets on the phone to the Mexican energy minister and says "hold off Pedro, keep it to yourself but you'll get better prices in a few weeks."
Thing is Modestus this isn't for spot oil sales. It does explain the background forward weakness they were talking about over the last week. Traders are glued to big trades and this certainly qualifies. What is often missed is that there is the other side that needs oil going forward. Once Mexico is finished a "big seller" is taken out. Does sound a little bit orchestrated to me. We shall see.

Enjoy the weekend and watch some US TV and Bloomberg. They have a responsibility for honest reporting, not like the trolls that always appear on a message board at events like these . The virus is more transmissible but far less lethal. That's what viruses do as they complete a cycle. We aren't any longer like indigenous indians without any resistance to early colonists of the likes of Pizarro and the conquistadores who killed many more by bringing disease with them. The vaccines are almost guaranteed to work on this new variant and even then it is still the aged and vulnerable most at risk, a tiny percentage and they were always closer to the exit. The airlines and holiday industry for two are fiercely lobbying to expedite the threat. If anybody here has ever used a surveyor or risk assessor what comes from the medical profession and laborotories is classic c.y.a. I'm not saying it's wrong necessarily but I remember the Grenfell firemen following protocols and waiting for an "assessment" as people burned to death. This is still described in the US as a holiday weekend and the Bloomberg headlines are that it was a thin market and algos and options turned a tumble into a crash. That will be put right on Monday imo.
I'm not too worried about oil. I remember wishing for it to get above $65 and I expect OPEC plus to have some say in the supply side.
EnQuest is in a strong position and little has changed. The offices would have been empty in the US and even in London as it should have been quiet. I love the talk from the TA guys. They can't forecast Covid outbreaks or US Administration's actions but pretend a chart explains it all whilst others just gloat but that is a personality problem I can't help them with. I though can forecast the future. "Sh*t happens, it always does."

Build it and they will come. Oil ain't finished for a long while.

"A £1.69 billion loan from the taxpayer will fund the work to keep to keep Bulb going. The administrators say it will cost about £2.1 billion to keep Bulb trading until the end of April."

As a Bulb customer, does that mean I'm on Benefits now?

Hi robizm - glad to see somebody is paying attention. It was to do with telecoms and satellites and you are right it couldn't have been the GDP but the UK has (according to google) a larger GDP than all of Africa. Where I was going was to say that if the virus stays in Africa (unlikely) it would have limited impact. A comparison was made about the level of activity and it may have well been to do with electonic traffic which makes more sense. My apologies for sloppy post.

https://www.schroders.com/getfunddocument/?oid=1.9.49335

We are on page 259. We are a dot in the financial galaxy. At 30 June 2021 Scroder was managing £114.8 billion. Baillie Gifford manage and advise around £ 346 bn. We are in 3 funds with them and are 0.10, 0.17, 0.39 in each of them. The Universe is huge and we are a dying planet according to financial astronomers. We'll just have to enjoy the short term cash we are making. Remember to sell out in 15 - 30 years.

It stuck in my mind and it is a few years ago (say 5) but I had an investment that kept saying Africa was the growth market to be in. Statistically at the time the GDP of Leeds was higher than all of Africa. Whether that is true or not is not the point. We don't care that much about Africa. Sad but true. Who'd want to be a cobalt miner?

We've been here before Juan and it was a lot darker then. I've a pal who along with his wife was terrified of the virus but is now invested in a Christmas holiday in Zell am See in Austria. He used to leave mail untouched for several days and used a litter picker to touch thing. Gloved up and an avid sprayer. Amazingly he is still going on holiday. People won't accept being prisoners for a second Christmas.

Hope you got some.

Just looking at the oil price which has been impacted but the gas is up. I suppose we still need to keep warm whilst they panic over Christmas being cancelled with the impact that will have on travel etc..
Personally I think Covid is running out of ideas. I wouldn't like to be a unvaccinated African but the risk is still for the vulnerable and aged.
It is holiday time in the US. I understand colds have many variants too.
If oil stays down then expect an OPEC reaction.

"It's all massively more complex than we could ever imagine." exactly Therapist. We've some really clever people on here who cannot resist a challenge (includes you) but unless you have all the relevant information you are going to make some mistakes that may be cumulative etc... Not because you're stupid but you have too many unknown moving parts. GE unloads are pretty tricky to me so I would only look at them over the 1/2-1 year. Let's face it all your hard work can be wiped out in a second with a $15 poo move which is always possible. I think that the effort that goes into it by you guys does help but I would never try for perfection. L7 seems like the guy who would take his boiler to bits before he eventually called the engineer in. He can do it. I can't.
I'm working on something that may get to the message board but could just as easy go into the waste bin. I'll throw this in as a taster. I've found a stock even more unpopular than EnQuest but heads the table on page 2.

https://www.youinvest.co.uk/sites/default/files/AJBYI_Q3_Dividend_dashboard.PDF

Dividend cover is how we'll be judged and that at least is heading in the right direction.

Be Lucky

Error Q1/2022

...and does it follow (if correct) that the cargoes in Q1/2021 will be in CNOOC's favour?

Thing is that the usual buyers have the ESG crowd sitting on their shoulder. We'll look back a few months from now and may be astounded by who our new major shareholders are that filled the vacuum created by the mistiming of the renewable takeover. It isn't technical but in the UK £20 notes layintg on the pavement don't stay there for long.

My first sale (5%)

p.s. I might change my mind and raise it.

Good point. I don't know but interesting all the same. Maybe as long as the price (apparently) reached a level they have a defence [says romaron rushing to check his CityIndex account]

TOKYO, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Japanese refiners are dusting off unused supply chains for fuel oil and getting coastal vessels and storage tanks ready after receiving requests from electric utilities to supply more fuel oil this winter amid a global crunch for power generation fuels.

It could also be an attempt to buy cheaper.

Hi Auson, as you point out the UT is not a trade. It is not a BUY and it is not a SELL. It can be a guide and usually is but when being manipulated or lack of volume it does allow the less scrupulous to try and move the price. A trick often used in FX.
You have to kick the AT off in the morning and it comprises of those who can be bothered or even real interests. The SETS system allows traders to put in prices that are matched and those with highest volume kinda "win". So today it had more sell volume but we have no idea of the amounts and volume but likely to be very small. Remember this is Thanksgiving day and there are less players so could be an opportunity of a shorter to push the price low on tiny volume. The cost would be minimal. If it works the next stage is to make a fuss and kid those in special needs that something serious has happened to the price. This system is open to anyone with Direct Market Access including Joe Public. Could even be somebody who posts here but I doubt it though there is no shortage of "useful idiots" in retail investing to help them. I don't have this access.
The market is thin today and other oil stocks are lower. The ESG fund transfers out of oil are not done imo and we will only move up on proof of cash earnings (which we are doing).
I think AB knows this but if you have a fund still reducing then they will welcome a bid for larger than normal. The MM will know where to go. For me this is a match of value against political pressure - economics favour fossils but we all know the anti and renewable lobby is strong.

Build it and they will come.

Re: my 17.31: "For clarity when I posted that there isn't another purchase around the corner I meant us buying into another field. There are restrictions if you have knowledge of a forthcoming deal. On the downside it probably means EP is gonna be warm stacking for a little longer."
I made a mistake. I've spoken to someone knowledgeable (not EnQuest) who strongly disagrees with the comment about EP. He points out that it is already in the public domain and we have been told there is plenty of interest. A sale would not really move the price dramatically so discount the comment. As was pointed out to me; if that was the case they'd hardly be able to get on with regular business because there are always a lot of "deals" which give inside knowledge daily. He doesn't think the potential EP sale reaches the bar of having privileged inside information. Some talks take months and lead nowhere whilst a buyer could appear suddenly from those who have looked it over or even an outlier.
So we're left with a man who does have inside information which we by and large have too who is BUYING so the money we make is going on paying down debt.

until next week I think. The US is shutting down for Thanksgiving and EnQuest is simmering nicely on the stove.
Some Reuter comments:
Nov 23 (Reuters) - As the Biden administration and allies scramble to deliver more oil to market through stockpile releases, shale producers are tapping the brakes on reinvestment, according to new data, a sign of the widening split between U.S. oil companies and Washington.
BEIJING, Nov 24 (Reuters) - China will release crude oil from its reserves according to its needs, a foreign ministry spokesman said on Wednesday, adding that the country was in close communication with oil-producing and oil-consuming countries.
TOKYO, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Wednesday his government would release oil reserves in response to a U.S. request in a way that does not breach a Japanese law that only allows stock releases if there is a risk of supply disruption.