Member Info for romaron

Maybe I was wrong about sleepy Joe? The WTI/Brent was $0.81 less than a month ago and now it's close to $4. So Joe is happy to see Brent above $80 and WTI below. My guess is that he's trying to keep the US awash in gasoline until post Thanksgiving and maybe till Christmas. The agreemment with other countries looks like a smokescreen. The US only care about themselves. It is hardly statesmanship to get large oil consumers to agree to a call for cheaper oil. He now owes "favours" to India, China and Japan and has p*ssed off the Saudis and Russia more than usual.

Hi onedb - you did the right thing. If you bought a similar amount or went back into a leveraged trade for equivalent then the small loss between the forced cut out and your purchase isn't large and a lesson learned. Luckily for you that the price held enabling you to get back in without too much damage. What would have become embedded would have been looking at (say) 22p after being cut out at what looks like the bottom. The algos work well when the market is active but what happened Thursday was a bit of a perfect storm. This from my 14.00 post covers some of it. Some markets are made for algos but the big stuff goes under the surface.

"Efficient markets / rational expectations view assumes informed market participants
react in the same way to data
? Short-term volatility due to uninformed “noise” traders and limits on liquidity
? Market professionals (“insiders”) have more private information and are better at
interpreting public data than outsiders (including small-time speculators)
? In short time, market will settle at unique equilibrium anchored in supplydemand-stocks-capacity fundamentals as understood by insiders"

I'm fairly happy with the trading side but my industry knowledge is very much self-taught.

*It might cheer you up but at Bankers Trust in the 80's you weren't considered 'blooded' until you'd lost a $ 1 million plus in one day.

.....as an afterthought. I reckon the company would rather spend moneu on buybacks than paying down debt but nthey're not akllowed to by covenants.

Hi Pelle - after the RNS the market was in selling mood and the talk was all about the SPR & Covid. AB did BUY on the 18th but that would have looked like a panic measure. He couldn't resist the low prices and showed commitment by buying on the Friday and Monday. He isn't chasing short term approval or trying to fight the market. Look at buybacks with other companies. Their impact is low but they obviously see the bigger picture and nothing better to spend their money on.
We'll also agree to disagree on the previous RNS.

For clarity when I posted that there isn't another purchase around the corner I meant us buying into another field. There are restrictions if you have knowledge of a forthcoming deal. On the downside it probably means EP is gonna be warm stacking for a little longer.
Another thought - the algorithms aren't that brilliant at deciphering a CEO with a large shareholding and a Foundation which is his family's lifes work. They also haven't had the benefit of seeing the reaction because they don't really do reflection and neither do traders who deal after the market has basically shut. There was basically about 5 minutes left to do anything and practically nobody to trade with. You'd be a mug to quote in size and only the tiddlers were around trying to get halfpennies on the UT. The timing was intentional and he isn't after temporary, cheap press. The professionals will understand.

I'm having a lot of trouble with the keyboard. I've got big hands and fingers and keep hitting two buttons at the same time/

The timing also shows total integrity. No favours to anybody. He also bought over a few days. A panic measure would have been to buy them in one go & immediately follow with an RNS during trading hours (16.23 ain't trading hours).
The guy is class. Let the day traders worry about it. Anybody seriously short would not be able to exit at 16.23 imo. I'm a very happy bunny.

MSM - it is a total purchase of c. £1 million in total. Statements like that aren't common in the C msuite. But then - AB has always been a bit different.

You're so wrong Juan. The RNS is timed at 16.23. The market is basically over for the day. In FX terms that would be an aggressive, fist clenched, vein throbbing "Ow you left for me shag" to the competition or nay sayers.
Let them digest the impact. This is big. It also conveys that he is behaving and there isn't another purchase around the corner. More importantly still is the Foundation BUY. I look after some money for the wife and it has does a lot better lately than my portfolio because it is far less risky. I imagine some of that applies to the Foundation too.

No mistake. The smart money were already on the train home. He wants people to digest the importance and he has issued it in working hours so he has a defence that they could have bought today. How much volume do you imagine was around? This isn't a knee jerk but a carefully thought out time to post. He isn't a populist because playing to the crowd is pointless. They are as fickle as fashion. The best news for some time! I think he knows the near future better than anyone on here.

Build it and they will come.

Eric Nuttall today on twitter 1h:

"The short-termism of today's SPR release blows my mind. 32MM "new" Bbls is a rounding error yet introduces politically-induced price risk just as US shale co's think about 2022 budgets. IMO we've seen the lows for oil and stocks and I'm going "all in" today given valuations."

19.22p committee. Love it. They aren't giving up on the North Sea like the blonde buffoon.

Another consideration is that this SPR releas should hit the market when? The spot market now shows very little difference between now and January - March 2022. I come from a FX background and whilst the Central Banks in times of crisis could make valiant efforts to hold back the market they always eventually got overrun. They often announced "coordinated action" but broke apart when self-interest and internal pressures put an end to that. Biden seems to think his experience counts. Then he should realise he's gonna lose. At the extreme this is "finger in dyke" time.

I've read it twice now and what I take from it is that the 2011 release from SPR had the desired effect of giving a breathing space but could not stop the inexorable rise of oil a few months later. What do they know that we don't know? Are they trying to soften up the public and manage the anger that high energy prices create. They run the risk of upsetting Joe Public (a.k.a A Voter) and one wonders how Insulate Britain will travel and the lack of traffic to blockade.

Or is it?

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/gdpzydgxbvw/MARKET%20REACTION%20TO%20THE%20IEA%20STOCK%20RELEASE%20--%20A%20QUESTION%20OF%20PERCEPTION.pdf

Good point Dumbly - the bigger question is what happens if this doesn't work? The downside of this is that the media won't come to their help as all the news will be taken up with that uncomfortable word "Crisis". Trying to get ahead of the news cycle is the road that many governments have been taken down. Fire fighting and experdiency do not have a long shelf mlife.

Agree Mavrick - sell on rumour, buy on fact. There is quite a big difference within the coalition cartel - oops sorry, it's only a cartel if the US isn't involved. The difference is that the US only recently were bragging about being self-sufficient in oil and gas so their position is different to the others in the coalition for cheap energy. I think this is more than an argument over pricing (which is challenged by some as not being within US SPR conditions for release) which is strange when $100 oil wasn't unknown and didn't sink the world economies. It could easily be masking a chronic under-supply of fossil fuels combined with the danger of forcing the remaining reserves to be largely in the hands of autocratic regimes.

I think this is another example of the US wanting its cake and eating it. This is a country which thinks it fine for a 17 year old to attend a rally with a loaded miltary style weapon. Oil will be fine while there's nutters like the US around. They only see things from their perspective.

Hi E - there is of course also the argument of just how bad is the supply shortfall? A bad winter or Russian/Iran aggression could easily push the oil supply into tilt.

I like this regarding SPR releases "The move is designed to tame soaring energy prices after the OPEC producer group and its allies rebuffed repeated requests from Washington and other consumer nations to pump more quickly to match rising demand."

So it's their fault; (mainly) Saudi Arabia and Russia. If they expect them to meekly roll over I've a feeling they're mistaken and they haven't allowed for some (or all) of them struggling to achieve existing targets. Media manipulation is getting so bad and obvious now that I think they've forgotten the priciple of when you're in a hole stop digging. Sometimes the other side wins. Renewables - where are they?

I think this is why the likes of Goldman's and Vitol rely on theoir own research.

I think I've explained the reasons in multiple posts and if you had half a brain you would see it repeated in practically every (if not all) UK oil companies. Your desperation to be noticed has not subsided even with your guru's departure. I have my doubts that you are a shareholder anyway. Oddballs exist everywhere and I'm afraid I can't feed your addiction. You are back on Filter.

KO " nothing else to say really." Hallelujah, does that mean you'll stop your drivel for the resty of the day.

Brinkmanship is back. Russia massing on Ukraine border. Agree Nord Stream 2 or we're turning the lights off (mind you, the supplies coming through Belarus and Ukraine don't look particularly safe). So lets bully OPEC and maybe the public won't care so much about their heating and electricity if the petrol pump prices are lower. Papering over the cracks until renewables come to the rescue (2035?) seems a bit risky to me.

The lights could go out in most of Europe.